Politics

[Pheroze]

Anything in this range is ok with me. We were traveling in Europe in 2008 when it was 1 to 1.5. Of course, assuming the international monetary reaction maintains the current Trump momentum, I suppose we could break that record.


I may be misunderstanding what you wrote, but unless we are talking about tariffs being a tax in kind, the administration is actually intent on cutting taxes.

Yes. I don’t really perceive much difference between a tax or a tariff to be honest. To me they are just different ways for the government to shape the economy and collect revenue

 

[Doubleplay]

Nasdaq is cratering again this morning and the DOW is down another thousand bringing it below 40K. This is now meaningful correction territory, though no where near 2007/8 - assuming it abates.

This is the alarm bells ringing. No administration including this one can stand in front of this. They will either change course or there will be an uprising inside the party. Phones are ringing inside the congress offices.

 

[Alistair]

Yes. I don’t really perceive much difference between a tax or a tariff to be honest. To me they are just different ways for the government to shape the economy and collect rerevenues

I tend to agree.

I also can't help but think that if Harris had got in, and done exactly the same thing as Trump is currently doing on economic issues the headlines on Fox would be "The administration introduces the largest tax increase on US consumers since ww2. The economy tanks".

All the folks on here would be absolutely furious and calling for her impeachment.

Funny old world, ain't it?

 

[Red Leg]

You have to love it when the propagandists of Russian state media have a truthful discussion about the nature of their broadcasts. Of course, I suppose NPR would find little with which to disagree.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908155397950611874

 

[mdwest]

https://www.reuters.com/world/mexico-says-cool-headed-approach-trumps-tariffs-has-paid-off-2025-04-04/

https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...eats-up-mexico-keeps-calm-as-canada-hits-back

Very different approach to dealing with Trump by Mexico vs Canada..

It appears that the Mexican approach is succeeding..

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-free-trade-with-us-may-survive-trump-spares-it-new-tariffs-hits-rivals-2025-04-03/

Mexico was already the US's biggest trading partner (trade with MX accounts for about 16% of US imports.. vs Canada and China each account for about 11%...

(Recognizing that the US is Canadas largest trading partner, but Canada is the US's 3rd largest behind Mexico, and slightly behind China)..

Putting on my nostradomus hat.. Im going to guess that gap is greater 12-24 months from now.. MX will negotiate its way through much of the tariff nonsense while Canada continues to scream and sabre rattle.. and we'll see MX account for 18-20% of all US trade while Canada drops to single digits (maybe 8-9%)..

Much of what the US gets from Canada, it also gets from Mexico.. Mexico is the 11th largest producer of oil in the world.. Canada is larger (4th largest).. but between increasing US output and what the Mexicans could potentially provide, I could see the US turning South to increase any deficit created by increased tariffs or ongoing political conflict with Canada..

Mexico is also a major producer of many of the minerals that the US gets from Canada.. they are the 11th largest producer of copper in the world.. they are thew 15th largest producer of steel in the world.. they arent a huge producer of nickel, but they do produce some.. they do have some significant steel production capacity as well.. it also produces tellurium in some capacity, etc..etc..

And it produces machine parts in large quantities (although to fabricate the same machine parts the US currently gets out of Canada would take significant re-tooling I am sure..

And obviously there is a large auto manufacturing capacity in Mexico..

There are some things the US obtains from Canada that Mexico cant provide (potashe is an example).. but most things the US obtains from Canada, it can get from Mexico or from other countries readily..

Trump isn't going to change.. his ego and personality wont allow it.. and he's not doing anything new.. he's executing on things he has literally been talking about for more than 30 years (much, much earlier than he ever talked about a run for public office)..

Which means its going to be incumbent on Canada to change its approach if it hopes to have any success in dealing with Trump..

I concur with Eric Trumps announcement earlier... He's been "watching this movie play over and over again" for his entire life..

Those that come to the table and negotiate early with his father tend to be successful.. those that come late tend to lose badly..

 

[Tanks]

also can't help but think that if Harris had got in, and done exactly the same thing as Trump is currently doing on economic issues the headlines on Fox would be "The administration introduces the largest tax increase on US consumers since ww2. The economy tanks".

All the folks on here would be absolutely furious and calling for her impeachment.

Instead, the MAGA faithful are saying...

More robust tariffs can also help reduce inflation.

 

[Brent in Az]

3 to 4 months, and the tariffs will all be worked out. Foreign dignitaries will be flocking to D.C to negotiate with the Trump administration.

 

[revturbo9967]

3 to 4 months, and the tariffs will all be worked out. Foreign dignitaries will be flocking to D.C to negotiate with the Trump administration.

Or tariffs stay in place and we continue to go into a correction.

 

[spike.t]

End of cheap goods in usa...

Trump tariffs live: US markets tumble as Trump says China 'played it wrong' by retaliating to tariffs

The drop follows European markets slumping further after China hit back at US import taxes with an additional 34% tariff.

www.bbc.com

 

[Brent in Az]

https://www.reuters.com/world/mexico-says-cool-headed-approach-trumps-tariffs-has-paid-off-2025-04-04/

https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...eats-up-mexico-keeps-calm-as-canada-hits-back

Very different approach to dealing with Trump by Mexico vs Canada..

It appears that the Mexican approach is succeeding..

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-free-trade-with-us-may-survive-trump-spares-it-new-tariffs-hits-rivals-2025-04-03/

Mexico was already the US's biggest trading partner (trade with MX accounts for about 16% of US imports.. vs Canada and China each account for about 11%...

(Recognizing that the US is Canadas largest trading partner, but Canada is the US's 3rd largest behind Mexico, and slightly behind China)..

Putting on my nostradomus hat.. Im going to guess that gap is greater 12-24 months from now.. MX will negotiate its way through much of the tariff nonsense while Canada continues to scream and sabre rattle.. and we'll see MX account for 18-20% of all US trade while Canada drops to single digits (maybe 8-9%)..

Much of what the US gets from Canada, it also gets from Mexico.. Mexico is the 11th largest producer of oil in the world.. Canada is larger (4th largest).. but between increasing US output and what the Mexicans could potentially provide, I could see the US turning South to increase any deficit created by increased tariffs or ongoing political conflict with Canada..

Mexico is also a major producer of many of the minerals that the US gets from Canada.. they are the 11th largest producer of copper in the world.. they are thew 15th largest producer of steel in the world.. they arent a huge producer of nickel, but they do produce some.. they do have some significant steel production capacity as well.. it also produces tellurium in some capacity, etc..etc..

And it produces machine parts in large quantities (although to fabricate the same machine parts the US currently gets out of Canada would take significant re-tooling I am sure..

And obviously there is a large auto manufacturing capacity in Mexico..

There are some things the US obtains from Canada that Mexico cant provide (potashe is an example).. but most things the US obtains from Canada, it can get from Mexico or from other countries readily..

Trump isn't going to change.. his ego and personality wont allow it.. and he's not doing anything new.. he's executing on things he has literally been talking about for more than 30 years (much, much earlier than he ever talked about a run for public office)..

Which means its going to be incumbent on Canada to change its approach if it hopes to have any success in dealing with Trump..

I concur with Eric Trumps announcement earlier... He's been "watching this movie play over and over again" for his entire life..

Those that come to the table and negotiate early with his father tend to be successful.. those that come late tend to lose badly..

Did you see those older videos of Nancy Pelosi, and Bernie Sanders, calling for the very same thing Trump is trying to do now?

 

[Red Leg]

I tend to agree.

I also can't help but think that if Harris had got in, and done exactly the same thing as Trump is currently doing on economic issues the headlines on Fox would be "The administration introduces the largest tax increase on US consumers since ww2. The economy tanks".

All the folks on here would be absolutely furious and calling for her impeachment.

Funny old world, ain't it?

Exactly. I would list those who would be yelling loudest, but ,,,,,,,,, they know who they are.

By the way, first quarter "growth" estimate as of April 1st according to the GDPNow model anticipates real GDP growth for Q1 2025 of -3.7%. That is unsurvivable for any administration or party if it persists very long. Regrettably for the administration, all the wonders of the trade war are rather long term benefits. It is easy for corporation X to say they are moving production to the US, but the actual process takes years.

Normally a new president would be able to blame the previous administration, but that is rather impossible in this situation.

I will be the first to agree that Trump knows a great deal about business. But unless he is also secretly a student of history and macro-economics, I suspect he is fairly ignorant about the record of tariffs in our economy. I would be surprised it there are not some fairly uncomfortable conversations taking place in the West wing as we type.

 

[mdwest]

Did you see those older videos of Nancy Pelosi, and Bernie Sanders, calling for the very same thing Trump is trying to do now?

Another interesting find..

It would appear all politicians think tariffs are a good thing.. as long as its their party implementing them rather than the other party..

Janet Yellen has been all over the news the last few days talking about how tariffs hurt an economy..

But in 2024 (literally just last year) when the Biden administration passed 50% tariffs on Chinese solar products, 25% on EV batteries, etc.. this was what she had to say..

SWFBeachBum on Instagram: "This Janet Yellen, Biden's Treasury Secretary, saying what?"

0 likes, 0 comments - swfbeachbum on April 3, 2025: "This Janet Yellen, Biden's Treasury Secretary, saying what?".

www.instagram.com

 

[spike.t]

I hope not....JP Morgan says chance of recession now 60%

Trump tariffs live: US markets tumble as Trump says China 'played it wrong' by retaliating to tariffs

The drop follows European markets slumping further after China hit back at US import taxes with an additional 34% tariff.

www.bbc.com

 

[HookMeUpII]

For what it is worth, I was unhappy about it then too.

That's fair. Right after the euro was adopted wasn't it like $1.25-$1.30 USD? You'd think you'd be able to find data that far back but nope.

 

[Red Leg]

I hope not....JP Morgan says chance of recession now 60%

Trump tariffs live: US markets tumble as Trump says China 'played it wrong' by retaliating to tariffs

The drop follows European markets slumping further after China hit back at US import taxes with an additional 34% tariff.

www.bbc.com

With one quarter already in the bag, that is looking like an ever safer bet. The generally accepted definition is two quarters of negative growth.

 

[Tanks]

Another interesting find..

It would appear all politicians think tariffs are a good thing.. as long as its their party implementing them rather than the other party..

Janet Yellen has been all over the news the last few days talking about how tariffs hurt an economy..

But in 2024 (literally just last year) when the Biden administration passed 50% tariffs on Chinese solar products, 25% on EV batteries, etc.. this was what she had to say..

SWFBeachBum on Instagram: "This Janet Yellen, Biden's Treasury Secretary, saying what?"

0 likes, 0 comments - swfbeachbum on April 3, 2025: "This Janet Yellen, Biden's Treasury Secretary, saying what?".

www.instagram.com

But those were targeted tariffs for specific items. This is a broadside to everything under the sun.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Nasdaq is cratering again this morning and the DOW is down another thousand bringing it below 40K. This is now meaningful correction territory, though no where near 2007/8 - assuming it abates.

We are at pandemic sell-off percentages, March, 2020, for comparison.

There will be falling knives for a while. Heads up. Don't be the one who catches them.

 

[HookMeUpII]

With one quarter already in the bag, that is looking like an ever safer bet. The generally accepted definition is two quarters of negative growth.

I'd bet my house we are in a classically-defined recession by Q3 of this year. There is no way, no how, GDP is positive in Q2.

This morning I woke up and realized the sad reality is that this was coming, one way or another. Still don't think the way it's happening was natural, or the best move. But it had to happen. We've been kicking the can down the road since late 2021 into 2022.

 

[revturbo9967]

Unfortunately, the market will not have enough time to turn while Trump is still in office. This will all be undone in 2029

 

[mdwest]

But those were targeted tariffs for specific items. This is a broadside to everything under the sun.

True...

but... if for the sake of argument, Biden can impose a 50% tariff (not a small amount at all) on solar products coming out of the biggest solar product producing country in the world (where the overwhelming majority of solar products bought in the US come from).. and his cabinet is adamant that the US consumer wont feel a price impact when they purchase solar products..

then shouldn't the same apply to the 10% overarching global tariff when we apply it to any singular product? for example, Mexican avocados just had a 10% tariff applied.. if we didn't feel 50% on solar panels.. why are we going to feel 10% on avocados?


FWIW, I think Yellen was full of shit in 2024, and I think shes full of shit today..

Im just pointing out that Bidens treasury, Bidens commerce, the D led house, etc.. all were completely on board with Biden tariffs.. He put them on several asian countries.. Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, China, etc.. and everyone from Pelosi to Yellen sang praises of brilliance..

Those same jackasses are now speaking in blanket terms about how tariffs (as a general subject) are bad..

Why the American people bother listening to politicians is beyond my understanding..