This is an unpopular opinion, but I believe this election isn't about appealing to the independents, but it is about turning out your base. Whether it is drop boxes or church buses, that is what will decide the election. What will the ground game be like in 5 or 6 states. That is all that matters, everything else is noise. Very few minds will be changed.
Kamala and Trump debating will be shitshow, Kamala is notoriously lazy and will try to talk to talk in punch lines to get 10 sec viral clips. Trump will talk in bombastic terms, "the greatest economy ever, like no one has ever seen, the best (insert whatever here)". There will be little facts and it is doubtful it will actually change any minds. The Trump/Biden debate, 33٪ thought Biden won....as a reminder, he had the worst debate performance in history.
Kamala's record as a prosecutor isn't great, it is pretty much how Tulsi was able to end her campaign. On paper Kamala should have ran away with it last time, she on paper is a great candidate this time, however when she talks it isn't great. Example: Reporter says, you haven't been to the border. Her reply, I haven't been to Europe either, followed by cackles. Project 2025 line isn't sticking and they will abandon that line of attack. In fact Kamala actually said can you believe they wrote their plans down, followed by cackle. The abortion line is interesting, but I think Trump has played that perfectly, state rights...everything they say abortion he says state rights. I'm not sure they have an angle there.
The border isn't where she needs to pivot, as I think she has too baggage there. Let's see her Hamas/Israel policies, let's she her economic plan for inflation, and how that is different. Biden wasn't just unpopular because he was old, his policies were unpopular.
I think her VP pick is Whitmer, Whitmer wants it bad and Michigan. Beshear maybe, and would be an interesting pick. I doubt Shapiro would take it, his time is coming and there is no need to have this shit show drag you down.
But this is also going to be very interesting. There is obviously a lot of positioning and checking the temperature of the room.