Politics

[Brent in Az]

Interesting scenario.

 

[Jfet]

It was the actual warfighting planning, coordination, and execution among various HQs that was the point of the drill.

This sound much like a Wednesday Team Offensive practice. Monday and Tuesday you install the offensive game plan for Friday night. On Wednesday all the offensive coaches get out of the huddle and off the field. The OC is in the press box on the headphones with the head coach and signaling coaches on the sideline. The Defensive coaches are on the field setting down, distance, hash mark, field position, and clock situation. The play timer is running and the offense has to get the play called, signaled, and executed. It can get very intense. Yes, it has happened where the Defensive staff acts like Lee Marvin and The Dirty Dozen causing the Offense to make like Mt St. Helens.

 

[mdwest]

What does Russia or Putin specifically have to gain in that scenario? There has to be a strategic purpose for actually making those moves..

They clearly lack the skill and/or resources to take Ukraine in less than 2 years.

While Ukraine had one of the better and more advanced military capabilities among former Soviet bloc countries 2 years ago when Russia first invaded.. their military doesnt come close to comparing to most of the militaries of Western Europe.. so a conflict with the rest of Europe, even if the US stayed out of it (we wouldnt) not only wouldnt have much promise for them in terms of winning.. but again the question would have to be asked.. what is it they hope to actually gain?

Assume Russia convinces its "allies" (China? Iran? Syria? etc) to join their side... what would any of them hope to gain?

China desperately needs natural resources... but war in Europe really wouldnt bear much fruit there.. they already get Russian oil, timber, etc.. and most of what they want/need is much closer to home in Asia and Africa.. the other problem for China is the US and Western Europe both owe a LOT of debt to China.. while the Chinese would love to see their economy and their currency overtake ours.. it hurts them (BADLY) in the short and the mid term if our economy is damaged.. they need that debt to be serviced and paid.. if not, their economy tanks with dramatic violence quickly..

and Iran and Syria and a few other minor players (Venezuela? NORK? Cuba? etc) just dont add up to being the same caliber friends as countries like the UK, France, Germany, or even Sweden, Finland, etc when it comes to the quality of defense systems, quality of troops, etc..

No matter what angle I look at it.. WW3 is a serious losing proposition for Russia (and China)... it would be a game of how little you lose as opposed to how much you win...

Desperate people do desperate things.. and Putin I believe is likely pretty desperate right now.. Im certain he is under a lot of stress/pressure with Ukraine not quite working out how he would have liked..

But the much smarter move would be to maintain focus on Ukraine and not expand the war past those borders right now... there are 64 countries around the globe having presidential elections in 2024.. plus the EU has its election in 2024.. plus the UN Security Council has its election in 2024.. etc..etc.. this is a pivotal year for world politics.. with roughly 49% of the worlds population being impacted over the next 12 months..

The last thing Putin should want to do is further piss off or "scare" the world... and have that emotion influence countries to put even more people in power that are elected to stop/counter the Russian threat..

 

[Boyd Brooks]

Interesting scenario.
View attachment 581114

Looks like a new game, “World Domination” coming soon to X-Box and Playstation.

 

[spike.t]

Feel sorry for this kid.....

https://www.timesofisrael.com/diadora-executive-in-south-africa-announces-boycott-of-jewish-cricket-player/

And....

The consequences of politicking in cricket: Marius Roodt

In a recent controversy, U/19 Proteas cricket captain David Teeger faced backlash for dedicating an award to the Israeli Defense Forces.

www.biznews.com

 

[CoElkHunter]

Its politics, and its become a bare knuckle sport. If you want decorum, go find a place serving high tea in little dainty cups with crumpets.

Australia?

 

[sestoppelman]

I have seen a number of these opinion pieces, mostly from the left tards that are alarmed by Trumps strong showing in Iowa the other day, Lots of hand wringing going on and it is typical that many feel compelled to try to poo poo the results with various and sundry reasons, scenarios.
But all amount to the same thing.
Fear that Trump will be re elected, in effect the end of civilization as we know it.
I said earlier that Haley polls better against Biden than Trump or anyone else and if she gets the nod I will vote for her, especially if Biden is the dem tard nominee.
Not my first choice, but I am for whomever has the best shot at keeping Biden away from winning another term, which is just inconceivable to me.

 

[Scott CWO]

Like I said .....take it for what it's worth.

The leaked German docs list eastern European countries, in 2025, as possible targetsfor Putin's ambitions.

Are all the armchair General's around here more privy to Putin's plans, then the worldwide intelligence agencies?

Don't underestimate evil men, and don't underestimate China's ambitions.

Well this is the reason to stop Putin in Ukraine.

 

[mdwest]

I have seen a number of these opinion pieces, mostly from the left tards that are alarmed by Trumps strong showing in Iowa the other day, Lots of hand wringing going on and it is typical that many feel compelled to try to poo poo the results with various and sundry reasons, scenarios.
But all amount to the same thing.
Fear that Trump will be re elected, in effect the end of civilization as we know it.
I said earlier that Haley polls better against Biden than Trump or anyone else and if she gets the nod I will vote for her, especially if Biden is the dem tard nominee.
Not my first choice, but I am for whomever has the best shot at keeping Biden away from winning another term, which is just inconceivable to me.

I dont disagree..

it seems to me that fear mongering a WW3 scenario is something that neither party can play well into though.. the "opinion piece" doesnt really do either side any favors.. (neither is spouting an agenda that would "fix" the perceived problem)..

The Biden administration is going to remain tough on Russia and pro-Ukrainian support.. "Selling" the notion that Putin is planning to take over the world if we keep supporting Ukraine would be counter productive to their messaging..

Trump has been somewhat obtuse on Ukraine from what I can tell... just this week he made statements about when he is re-elected he will "solve" the war in Ukraine in "1 Day"... he would do that by getting Putin and Z-Man to the table to negotiate a resolution.. He hasnt really said he supports US withdrawal of assistance or continued US support to the Ukrainians.. he has just said the war needs to end.. the notion that Putins real plan is to put the world at war is counter productive to Trumps messaging as well.. He cant very well end a war in a day.. if the current war isnt the actual end goal for the Russians..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Just be happy that the Governor of Michigan hasn’t declared to run as Biden’s replacement as was discussed last year.

The last Michigan governor that went to
DC is enough embarrassment for one state to shoulder. (Granholm)

Whitmere is the embodiment of a Marxist with a huge power trip going on . If she took her Covid lockdown mentality nation wide. Look out.

She would embarrass The California pretty boy Governor at a who’s the most radical, at a Marxist competition.

Take a look at our “Progressive” abortion “rights” in Michigan. China would be proud. Actually, I take that back. I don’t think China allows abortion up to birth.

 

[Red Leg]

Interesting scenario.
View attachment 581114

Another meme, and essentially without a though behind it.

Let's look at it step by step - something anyone should do before posting or giving credit to such nonsense. Generally, in my experience, Ignorant inexperienced people write these things. They should receive very critical review.

1) With total Russian casualties in Ukraine approaching half a million, a 200k mobilization doesn't even address replacement requirements in the current conflict. The only way Russia could generate the troops necessary for the scenario above is through general mobilization. Considering the level of discontent gradually building in the country, I don't think there is much chance he would risk such a step = particularly with the resultant impact on an already fragile economy, work force, and industrial base.

2) I have no doubt Russia will again attempt local offensive action as the weather improves. After all, Putin has ordered them all summer and fall, and suffered enormous casualties for it. I am fairly confident that UA hopes he continues to do so considering they are inflicting casualties in ratios as high as five to one on those attacking formations.

3) Waves of cyber attacks. Those have been attempted against NATO and specific countries including the US since February of 2022. Now they are suddenly going to work?

4) 50,000 Russian troops on the border of Poland is inconsequential. The Polish active duty land forces consist of 100,000 highly trained and well equipped troops who would like nothing more than to destroy a Russian division or two. Another quarter of a million are in reserve. Since Clausewitz, the formula for a successful offensive against a prepared enemy is a minimum of three to one in combat power. The Poles will hugely outnumber them, and their units are fully equipped with modern platforms - unlike the condition of the current Russian Army.

5) This might have been a provocation two years ago (probably when the author of this meme last learned anything about NATO and Russia), but with the Baltic now a NATO lake, no one in Kaliningrad can pass gas, much less launch a missile without being crushed like a roach.

6) If Putin thought he could on his order "stir up" "deadly" riots in the Baltic States he would have done it months ago. The Baltics contribute more to UA's defense per GDP than any other nations.

7) Move to the Baltics? The Baltics are members of NATO. He could move some of his few remaining units to those borders - not to the Baltic - and then do what? NATO air power and three brigades of German and American troops could laugh at the threat.

8) The basis of NATO is to offer credible deterrence. Again, the author is clueless.

9) Orders 300,000 troops to the Eastern flank? That many are already under arms prepared to conduct military ops in Germany and Poland alone. The Germans aren't as ready as they were 30 years ago, but they are much better prepared than two years ago.

10) Russia doesn't have 500,000 troops to move anywhere. They are scraping prisons simply to fill losses in Ukraine. And how will these mythical troops go to war? Russia's modern armor is decorating the steppes of Ukraine. According to Oryx, they have lost over 2600 tanks in 24 months - and those are just the photo confirmed losses. Most analysts credited them with around 3200-3500 modernized tanks at the start of the war in Ukraine. IFV losses have been equally catastrophic. Their pathetic air force can't even operate over Ukraine, they would pose almost no threat to the ADA array and Gen 5 fighters awaiting them over Poland or Germany.

I assume you can figure out that this silly chart is the same "leaked" training scene setter that was noted in the article above. I would strongly urge anyone to read any of this, representing any side with a bit of judicious common sense. Of course, in the current environment, that seems the most uncommon thing of all.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Red Leg can defend himself of course.

He deserves respect. A Retired Army General Officer. We are fortunate to have him here posting.

 

[Doug3006]

What does Russia or Putin specifically have to gain in that scenario? There has to be a strategic purpose for actually making those moves..

They clearly lack the skill and/or resources to take Ukraine in less than 2 years.

While Ukraine had one of the better and more advanced military capabilities among former Soviet bloc countries 2 years ago when Russia first invaded.. their military doesnt come close to comparing to most of the militaries of Western Europe.. so a conflict with the rest of Europe, even if the US stayed out of it (we wouldnt) not only wouldnt have much promise for them in terms of winning.. but again the question would have to be asked.. what is it they hope to actually gain?

Assume Russia convinces its "allies" (China? Iran? Syria? etc) to join their side... what would any of them hope to gain?

China desperately needs natural resources... but war in Europe really wouldnt bear much fruit there.. they already get Russian oil, timber, etc.. and most of what they want/need is much closer to home in Asia and Africa.. the other problem for China is the US and Western Europe both owe a LOT of debt to China.. while the Chinese would love to see their economy and their currency overtake ours.. it hurts them (BADLY) in the short and the mid term if our economy is damaged.. they need that debt to be serviced and paid.. if not, their economy tanks with dramatic violence quickly..

and Iran and Syria and a few other minor players (Venezuela? NORK? Cuba? etc) just dont add up to being the same caliber friends as countries like the UK, France, Germany, or even Sweden, Finland, etc when it comes to the quality of defense systems, quality of troops, etc..

No matter what angle I look at it.. WW3 is a serious losing proposition for Russia (and China)... it would be a game of how little you lose as opposed to how much you win...

Desperate people do desperate things.. and Putin I believe is likely pretty desperate right now.. Im certain he is under a lot of stress/pressure with Ukraine not quite working out how he would have liked..

But the much smarter move would be to maintain focus on Ukraine and not expand the war past those borders right now... there are 64 countries around the globe having presidential elections in 2024.. plus the EU has its election in 2024.. plus the UN Security Council has its election in 2024.. etc..etc.. this is a pivotal year for world politics.. with roughly 49% of the worlds population being impacted over the next 12 months..

The last thing Putin should want to do is further piss off or "scare" the world... and have that emotion influence countries to put even more people in power that are elected to stop/counter the Russian threat..

I agree that it’s hard to imagine a winning scenario for Russia if they attack a NATO member. However, what we think matters less than what Russia thinks. It’s a bit like Japan deciding to attack the United States in 1941. There was no reason for them to believe they could prevail in an all out war with US. Their GDP was 20% of the United States and their population was 55% of the US population. Yet, they attacked. Analysis after the war concluded that Japan had hoped to press a quick capitulation through an overwhelming strike. They were wrong.

Putin may believe he could attack, say, Albania and the US and NATO might blink. This would fracture the alliance and give him a free hand to pick off others. Again, this doesn’t have to make sense to us. It only has to make sense to Putin.

On the other hand, if he attacks any of the stronger NATO members, it wouldn’t matter what the rest of NATO does. Poland, Germany, Finland, heck even the Czechs, would hand his ass to him all on their own.

 

[Wheels]

 

[spike.t]

Here we go with the fktards at the WEF in Davos....

World leaders gather over 'Disease X' threat that could kill 20x more than Covid

WORLD leaders gathered today to discuss a deadly and mysterious disease dubbed Disease X that could spark the next pandemic. The World Health Organisation has warned the hypothetical pathogen could…

www.the-sun.com

 

[Brent in Az]

Here we go with the fktards at the WEF in Davos....

World leaders gather over 'Disease X' threat that could kill 20x more than Covid

WORLD leaders gathered today to discuss a deadly and mysterious disease dubbed Disease X that could spark the next pandemic. The World Health Organisation has warned the hypothetical pathogen could…

www.the-sun.com

I figured that Fauci & his Chinese overlords would release something new around the first of the year.
It needs time to fester before November.
Lockdowns on the horizon.

 

[Red Leg]

Here we go with the fktards at the WEF in Davos....

World leaders gather over 'Disease X' threat that could kill 20x more than Covid

WORLD leaders gathered today to discuss a deadly and mysterious disease dubbed Disease X that could spark the next pandemic. The World Health Organisation has warned the hypothetical pathogen could…

www.the-sun.com

I would think it would be smart to assume such a future outbreak of something like that is likely to occur. It wouldn't even have to be something like a pneumonic plague with a 50% death rate. A 10% death rate would put every infected country on the planet into an economic tailspin.

One would hope what went right and wrong during Covid would be a topic of intense study and discussion.

 

[Altitude sickness]

It’s not an actual pathogen. It’s a drill to prepare and try to guess what is the most likely source of the next pandemic.

It’s actually a good thing.

 

[WAB]

Here we go with the fktards at the WEF in Davos....

World leaders gather over 'Disease X' threat that could kill 20x more than Covid

WORLD leaders gathered today to discuss a deadly and mysterious disease dubbed Disease X that could spark the next pandemic. The World Health Organisation has warned the hypothetical pathogen could…

www.the-sun.com

I’m all for getting news from diverse sources but ‘The Sun’? C’mon spike.t you’re just stirring the pot now!

 

[SaintPanzer]

OK, I'm getting a little bored with the opinions back and forth re: Trump. I certainly understand both sides of the problem. But the reason I'm getting bored is no one is asking the right questions. On the one hand, we have the "Never Trumpers", who seem to constantly be accused of being Republicans In Name Only, and then we have the "Only Trumpers", who seem to be resting on the Thesis that only he will confront anyone, and anyone who doesn't agree with them is a shill for the Democratic Party. There doesn't seem to be much middle ground.

From my point of view, we're electing a President, who must control and run the executive branch, but who also has no power to legislate. He's not a King, he's not a Dictator, he takes care that the laws be faithfully executed. This applies to whomever is in office. No one in that office can do things personally for me, that is in the hands of the legislative branch. Enforce the immigration laws we have? Executive. Change the laws (either to make them more liberal or more conservative)? Not the President's role.

Aside... many (but not all) of my frustrations with the current administration revolve around failure to do this. We have immigration laws. Enforce them. There is a student loan program. Want relief? All spending bills originate in the House. The list goes on, but I digress.

So let's have a little thought experiment, which gets at the root of my question. If the current administration is elected, there may be personnel changes, but I don't foresee many. I mean, if SECDEF can flirt with Article 86, then it's not like anyone is going to be made available for other endeavors. Any changes will be voluntary, and I don't see their replacements as being vastly different in personality.

On the other hand, suppose we do elect the former President. After everything that has happened, who will willingly fill key roles in his administration? Who will volunteer to be SECSTATE? SECDEF? National Security Advisor? What are their competencies? Backgrounds? Education?

On the point of Education, I'm not suggesting only the Ivy League matters. But what have they studied? What is their experience? What will they do to deal with entrenched senior level positions in the bureaucracy?

I've heard a lot of talk about Step 1, win the election. Does anyone have any thoughts about Step 2, actually making it work?