Iran has exactly two oil export terminals. One is located Kharg and a new one at Jask. Karj is in the Straights of Hormuz and Jask is to its east on the Gulf of Oman. Either can be shut down by the 5th Fleet until the 5th Fleet decides they may reopen.Everyone is talking about the 2 carrier battle groups cruising in from the med (6th Fleet)...
Dont forget we have 2 carriers and a total of 20 warships, 20,000 Marines, etc.. assigned to the 5th Fleet.. whose primary responsibility is the Persian Gulf (much closer to Iran).. No one seems to be talking about where those ships are currently sailing..
It would be a stretch for aircraft to make it to Iran from one of the two 6th Fleet Carriers that everyone is focused on.. (also almost impossible for Israeli aircraft to make it to Iran from land bases in Israel without significant external support (i.e. US or Euro tankers and other "things" we probably shouldnt talk about)..)...
5th Fleet is something entirely different though..
If Iran gets openly stupid.. the pain they'd experience would likely be incredibly high.. and incredibly swift..
Theyll continue to play in the shadows and send money, provide training, sneak in munitions, provide intelligence, etc.. and they'll continue with rhetoric and saber rattling..
But I dont think theyre stupid enough to go much further than that right now.. they have little to gain.. and A LOT to lose..
In an initial attack on Iran most of the strikes won't be delivered by manned aircraft. Those same missile cruisers and destroyers protecting the task forces are also carrying significant inventories of cruise missiles configured for land attack. both fleets can easily range target sets in Iran with them. Unlike a Hamas rocket they carry a substantial warhead and will fly into a target the size of an open mailbox.