There are two takeaways from the John Mearsheimer interview that you link to, Nature Boy. The first is this:
When I meet Mearsheimer, I am keen to focus on what we have learned since the February invasion began. I want to know how can he still maintain that there is “no evidence” that Russia had ambitions to conquer Ukraine? How else are we to interpret that shocking moment when it became clear that the Russians were launching a full-scale invasion — from the North, the South and the East of the country?
“The Russians invaded Ukraine with 190,000 troops at the very most,” he replies. “They made no effort to conquer all of Ukraine. They didn’t even come close. There is no way they could have conquered Ukraine with 190,000 troops. And they didn’t have the troops in reserve to do that. When the Germans invaded Poland, in 1939, they invaded with 1.5 million troops. That’s the size army you need to conquer a country like Ukraine, occupy it and then incorporate it into a greater Russia. You need a massive army. This was a limited aim strategy.”
I simply don't believe this. The Russian military - and the CIA, by the way - expected a short, sharp, putsch, after which they (the Russians) would be in a position either to dictate terms or to continue smashing the remnants of the Ukrainian military in order to obtain an even more advantageous peace. The least that Putin expected to get were the eastern territories and a puppet leader of the rest of Ukraine (which is what he has in Belarus). A better result, from his point of view, would have been a new border along the Dnieper river (taking essentially half of the country) - leaving Kiev itself within spitting distance; and the expected result - see below - would have been the wholesale integration of the Ukraine within Russia. From there Putin could start the whole process of destabilisation and absorption all over again in Transnistria and Moldova. Like Hitler, I expect that Putin is an opportunist.
The '
Daily Telegraph' today has this behind its paywall:
Captured documents reveal Russia's plan to annex Ukraine in ten days and kill Zelensky
Russia planned to seize Ukraine within ten days and kill its leaders, according to new documents apparently signed off by Vladimir Putin.
The leaked plans, revealed by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (Rusi), show that Russia aimed to annex the country by August, Russia intended to capture Ukraine’s airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament as Ukrainian officials either fled or were captured “as a result of the speed of the invasion". The Kremlin created a "kill list" of Ukrainians that should be killed or suppressed.
According to Rusi, the plan was known to few in Russia's military and tactical military units did not receive orders to invade until hours before.
Officials planned to register the entire population by going door to door, noting if they should be eliminated or whether they were likely to collaborate.
Putin also sought to take Ukraine’s energy sector as a whole, potentially using the power to blackout European countries.
The second takeaway from Mearsheimer is this:
The British are “major cheerleaders” for the policy [the policy of 'current rhetoric among Western leaders about defeating Russia'], by his assessment, pushing the United States into stronger action. “I think the British are being remarkably foolish, just like I think, the Poles, the Baltic states, and the Americans.”
Nothing makes me more proud of my country than the role that it is playing in defending the Ukraine. It is completely moral position: I don't want my country to be like France, trying to play both sides, or Germany, giving a doubtful minimum of assistance, or - God forbid - pious Switzerland, doing nothing at all. It is a modern day retelling of the parable of the Good Samaritan. This war was started by Putin and can be ended by him.
As another point, Red Leg's chart of assistance as a % of GDP is what you should be concentrating on. I am not sure that it captures Poland's true assistance, with an extraordinary generosity to Ukrainian refugees - free public transport, free medical access, and so on. Whilst the US's assistance has been huge, that is only because the country is so rich; and, as I am in a biblical state of mind at the moment, it is like
the story of the widow's mite. You are confusing, perhaps, absolute aid and relative aid given: the US gives most absolutely, but others give more relatively.
Finally, I defend to the end your right to hold an opinion different to my own. I don't think that huge numbers of posts, launching into
ad hominem abuse, giving and taking offence gets us very far. There are more productive things to do than argue with strangers on the internet!
