Politics

[Wheels]

Just published since my post.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

It's probably worth keeping an eye on Credit Suisse. CS looks to be the canary in the coalmine, kind of like Bear Sterns 14 years ago. The problem isn't just Credit Suisse. The problem is if a Credit Suisse triggers a derivatives melt down.

MSN

 

[Nature Boy]

Ah.. Key word there is "interpret" because there is no doubt about his actual words... Brandon requires a lot of interpretation as well..

Regardless of how his words are interpreted, the recklessness and irresponsibility of that kind of rhetoric is inexcusable in my view. Not something to be admired..



So it's okay that the leader of Ukraine is using any inflammatory and provocative rhetoric he deems necessary to garner military support calling for escalation of Western involvement and flirting dangerously with the use of nuclear weapons and it doesn't matter? If what Zelensky does and says doesn't matter, who should be be listening to? You lost me on that one..

I am looking at the big picture.. Always have been.. Still waiting for somebody to tell me what the specific immediate benefits are for U.S involvement in Ukraine, and the difference between this existential threat to our national security versus all of the other current existential threats we face outside of Ukraine which can be specifically defined and listed? I would also like to hear more about the "as long as it takes" strategy that the U.S has apparently committed to in Ukraine.. If you can explain these things to me, maybe the big picture will be more clear to all of us..

You are right in all ways and most here are falling into the exact trap the globalists want them to fall in to. Ukraine is a totally corrupt country and has been for a long time. That's why they were not allowed in NATO to begin with. The USA left 80B worth of weapons in Afghanistan and got dozens killed due to stupidity and those weapons are not all obsolete and they will be used against us , whether directly or by using the money they get from selling them. MI complex wants more money. The US completed a coup in Ukraine in 2014 and guess who ordered that and was grifitng billions from Ukraine afterwards? Ukraine is not of any real importance to the USA, the biggest thing we get are ferrous metals (lmao). The MI complex and the pols want more money and this is how they get it. The defense contractors gave over 30M to pols in 2021. Don't you find it odd that in a country that can't agree on the color of the sky that NOBODY ever questions the MI complex in any way? We got Oil from Russia before this, not Ukriane. Guess who is now selling oil and LNG to Europe at huge margins? The USA!

The euros are cutting down trees trying to stay warm and ruining their economies due to this. Russia already is working with China and their imports of Russian oil are already up 22%. This will likely end and everything will be the same except the US taxpayer will get hosed once again. If Russia is so dangerous then why don't the euros, who border it, do a hell of a lot more? They won't even pay their fair share into NATO, a total joke. Know why? They know the USA will do it and certain pols and companies will make money. China is our enemy first and foremost and it;'s not close. Then read up on the Pandora papers where zelensky and pals are offshoring all this money and will get rich and are already rich.

All they had to do was say we are not joining Nato and things would have been fine. The US debt and printing money as a policy is coming to a head. It is not sustainable and watch what happens? It's going to be ugly.

 

[Nature Boy]

Well said.

There is a deep and abiding longing for isolationism in this country. In some ways, we are as regrettably xenophobic as the Russians except rather than feeling compelled to stamp out other cultures we want to draw the covers over our heads and lock the doors; a bit of geographic determinism driven by vast oceans in one case and equally vast but indefensible steppes and ice bound ports on the other. The same who long for that world seem determined not to understand that the conditions that would make it possible, at least in its current economically favorable form, are impossible to maintain without free access to all those uncomfortably foreign markets to which we are so deeply and inexorably dependent. Couple that with what is a singularly naïve, though often admittedly charming sense of ethnocentricity, and we have on several occasions been later to effectively protect those interests than we could have earlier with far less cost in lives and treasure.

You may be right that our late entry into the great wars of the last century was due to the exercise of realpolitik, but I do not think so. I am over simplifying, but Wilson was the stumbling block in the Great War. His idealism caused this country to drag its feet for three long years before committing to a Europe dominated by Britain and France rather than one dancing to a tune played in Berlin and Vienna. A woefully unprepared American expeditionary force was formed on the fly and deployed, arriving just in time to blunt, with horrific casualties, the German offensive of 1918 reinforced by all those divisions from the Eastern Front. It was a very near run thing.

In the run up to the Second World War, the country as a whole was deeply committed to an "America first" doctrine as thoroughly proud of its economic ignorance as anything we see today. I frankly do not believe any politician in Washington was even paying serious attention to the negotiations in Munich in September 1938. But FDR would have gladly involved us sooner than last days of '41 in defense of Great Britain, but he lacked the political strength to do so. It is worth remembering that after the attack on Pearl Harbor and the declaration of war on Japan, four long days passed (from Churchill's point of view) before Hitler did Roosevelt the enormous favor of declaring war on the United States.

To point to only one aspect of the early war, I am confident that the course of the Battle of the Atlantic would have been far different if the US Navy had been fully committed in 1940 rather than 1942. One can also muse what Japan's actions may have been in 1941 if the Pacific fleet had been on a full war footing rather than somnolently at anchor that Sunday morning in December. But that is an alternative universe.

But in Ukraine - right now in this universe - before it is too late - we have the opportunity to snuff out Russian ambitions in central Europe. His modernized army which took two decades to build is being systematically destroyed. Three centuries of strategic maneuvering with respect to modern day Finland and Russia's ancient enemy Sweden have gone up in smoke. The implied threat which has loomed over Europe for a century - and to our national interests there - is being curbed for at least decades to come. The greater, I believe existential threat posed by an axis formed by a militarily triumphant Putin and and economically aggressive China is being destroyed in its infancy.

It saddens me people can't or won't see that with the same clarity.

I don 't agree with that at all. Who were our adversaries in WWII? Japan and Germany. Who are now our allies while our WWII allies are now the enemy. Our interests are very little in Europe, they export to us and we charge barely a duty while they charge us 25% on a car? It's a pathetic joke and since they live there and big bad Russia is so scary, why don't they spend to the NATO treaty? Why don't they defend Ukraine? We are doing it and we can't afford anything. Our country is in shambles economically, politically, culture wise, crime wise, everything.

 

[Nature Boy]

@BSO Dave it seems that @Major Bonkers has answered your questions and I will add my two cents.

While I don’t condone many of the things that Zelensky has said, it certainly doesn’t surprise me either. Have you seen the price the Ukrainians are paying? We haven’t seen bombed out cities like this since the carpet bombing days of WWII. The Russians are/were leveling the cities, power grid and even homes out in rural areas. We haven’t seen this in Europe or really anywhere else besides Syria in a long time on this scale. It’s certainly no surprise to me that Zelensky and his government are asking and begging for direct NATO/USA involvement!

You don’t see any direct benefits for the USA? Really? Do you not understand how the world economy works and how we are the biggest player? ECONOMICS & our SECURITY! Why do you think we have JSOC operators all over the world and regular military bases all over? Do you not understand what happened in WWII, the expense of the Cold War, our completely direct economic and security interests in a partnership with a largely democratic Europe? ECONOMICS & our SECURITY! Would it be in our direct interests to sit back and watch Putin reassemble the Soviet Bloc? Like it or not, you feel safe and insulated and have your ill-conceived notion that we can just sit back and let the rest of the world turn to shit BECAUSE of what our State Department and Defense Department do on a DAILY basis. Pardon my rudeness and incredulous response but, wake the f*#* up!

Russia is zero threat to our "security" unless this stupid proxy war for money gets them to luanch nukes? Is that good for us? Lol. California has a bigger economy than Russia. This is what they said about Iraq and Aghanistan. Ever hear about the USA getting any OIL from Iraq? Lmao. China owns that. Thx obummer. Now the Taliban is running Afghanistan, doing whatever they want and better armed than ever. Iraq doesn't even sell us any oil. All these people killed and lives ruined for NOTHING. All you hawks gonna send your kids to die for Ukraine? I doubt it. It's not the reality you all want it to be. It's a big grifting scheme and nothing more. We already have boycotted Russian oil to the detrement of our now tanking ecomony and our debt load is gonna kill us off fast.

 

[Nature Boy]

It's probably worth keeping an eye on Credit Suisse. CS looks to be the canary in the coalmine, kind of like Bear Sterns 14 years ago. The problem isn't just Credit Suisse. The problem is if a Credit Suisse triggers a derivatives melt down.

MSN

Yup, and now those derivitives are unsecured and in the next crash will no way to buy our way out of it. Looking at a global crash imo.

 

[Red Leg]

I don 't agree with that at all. Who were our adversaries in WWII? Japan and Germany. Who are now our allies while our WWII allies are now the enemy. Our interests are very little in Europe, they export to us and we charge barely a duty while they charge us 25% on a car? It's a pathetic joke and since they live there and big bad Russia is so scary, why don't they spend to the NATO treaty? Why don't they defend Ukraine? We are doing it and we can't afford anything. Our country is in shambles economically, politically, culture wise, crime wise, everything.

Russia is zero threat to our "security" unless this stupid proxy war for money gets them to luanch nukes? Is that good for us? Lol. California has a bigger economy than Russia. This is what they said about Iraq and Aghanistan. Ever hear about the USA getting any OIL from Iraq? Lmao. China owns that. Thx obummer. Now the Taliban is running Afghanistan, doing whatever they want and better armed than ever. Iraq doesn't even sell us any oil. All these people killed and lives ruined for NOTHING. All you hawks gonna send your kids to die for Ukraine? I doubt it. It's not the reality you all want it to be. It's a big grifting scheme and nothing more. We already have boycotted Russian oil to the detrement of our now tanking ecomony and our debt load is gonna kill us off fast.

Your first comment illustrates my point. Thank you.

I have nothing to add to the second that I haven't already stated. Ukraine's national interests are important to us only to the extent that they intersect ours. Limiting Russia's expansionist goals are, at least in most people's minds, clearly in ours. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq has anything to do with it.

 

[Scott CWO]

Russia is zero threat to our "security" unless this stupid proxy war for money gets them to luanch nukes? Is that good for us? Lol. California has a bigger economy than Russia. This is what they said about Iraq and Aghanistan. Ever hear about the USA getting any OIL from Iraq? Lmao. China owns that. Thx obummer. Now the Taliban is running Afghanistan, doing whatever they want and better armed than ever. Iraq doesn't even sell us any oil. All these people killed and lives ruined for NOTHING. All you hawks gonna send your kids to die for Ukraine? I doubt it. It's not the reality you all want it to be. It's a big grifting scheme and nothing more. We already have boycotted Russian oil to the detrement of our now tanking ecomony and our debt load is gonna kill us off fast.

Russia and Ukraine are just two countries in the world. Millions of USA jobs rely on buying, selling and making goods and services to sell and buy overseas. Our economy and lifestyle depend on it, whether you know or admit it.

 

[Nature Boy]

Your first comment illustrates my point. Thank you.

I have nothing to add to the second that I haven't already stated. Ukraine's national interests are important to us only to the extent that they intersect ours. Limiting Russia's expansionist goals are, at least in most people's minds, clearly in ours. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq has anything to do with it.

We don't get anything from Ukraine, FYI. We were buying russian crude. So we were helping big bad Russia? Lol, you can't even make this stuff up. Obummer gave them crimea, how'd that go? They have everything to do with it as those were just more money making schemes put in place by evil treasonous traitors. I wonder how the people of Afghanistan are liking the Taliban, again? Haliburton charing the US military $100 per towel. Billions disappeared in US cash. We don't even buy any Iraqi oil, weird. But China does, a ton of it. Yet here we are paying $3 a gallon for gas and ruining the US economy.

 

[Nature Boy]

Russia and Ukraine are just two countries in the world. Millions of USA jobs rely on buying, selling and making goods and services to sell and buy overseas. Our economy and lifestyle depend on it, whether you know or admit it.

The largest deficit in goods in the United States is with China. In fact, over 65% of the trade deficit – or $419 billion – is because of imports from China. The main imports that the US purchased from China include clothing, machinery, and electronics.

Opposite, China was benefitting. The purposeful destruction of the USA manufacturing base (NAFTA for one thing) ruined the middle class in the US and now we are actually starting to in shore this again. Well, china still makes 95% of our antibitoics and we can't make a GD car since we have no chips. lol

We have trade deficits with almost everybody and we are only printing money to buy those things, it is not sustainable. Our debt to GDP is ridiculous and you have adversarial countries trying right now to get the world off the US dollar. Hopefully, that won't happen for a long time.

 

[Red Leg]

We don't get anything from Ukraine, FYI. We were buying russian crude. So we were helping big bad Russia? Lol, you can't even make this stuff up. Obummer gave them crimea, how'd that go? They have everything to do with it as those were just more money making schemes put in place by evil treasonous traitors. I wonder how the people of Afghanistan are liking the Taliban, again? Haliburton charing the US military $100 per towel. Billions disappeared in US cash. We don't even buy any Iraqi oil, weird. But China does, a ton of it. Yet here we are paying $3 a gallon for gas and ruining the US economy.

So we clearly understand each other, and I readily admit to not following all of the above, I am all about US national interests. Period. It is why I supported the incursion into Afghanistan and opposed the adventure in Iraq. I don't know what your "globalism" term means in your mind, but our support of Ukraine has everything to do with our national interests. What we do or don't "get" from Ukraine is irrelevant. Everything is relevant about stopping Putin's ambitions toward recreating a modern Soviet Union out of Central Europe which could exert catastrophic pressure on our European partners.

I think allowing Putin to retake Crimea was a mistake. He could have been stopped then far easier than now and with far less bloodshed. Obama, like Neville Chamberlain, made a mistake. Fortunately, whatever its faults, this administration is not making it twice.

Your comments about the US military and defense contractors are offensive. Evil treasonous traitors?!? Seriously? I served a career in one and was an appointed officer in the other. That terrible defense establishment - until you need to send the army to war with weaponry that works.

Our total trade with Europe was just shy of $700 B last year. Our trade deficit with Europe ran about $180 B. Most of our trade is in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and manufactured goods. Whether that is a good or bad thing can be debated by economists. But what it surely does mean is that we have a decisive national interest in protecting access to those products for the foreseeable future.

A final point. You have noticed that it is Ukraine that is fighting this war? Not NATO and not the United States. They are the ones sacrificing their lives to preserve their right to a nation and self determination. I am simply certain it will cost this country far more to stop a resurgent Russia later than to aid Ukraine in stopping Putin now.

 

[Alistair]

We don't get anything from Ukraine, FYI. We were buying russian crude. So we were helping big bad Russia? Lol, you can't even make this stuff up. Obummer gave them crimea, how'd that go? They have everything to do with it as those were just more money making schemes put in place by evil treasonous traitors. I wonder how the people of Afghanistan are liking the Taliban, again? Haliburton charing the US military $100 per towel. Billions disappeared in US cash. We don't even buy any Iraqi oil, weird. But China does, a ton of it. Yet here we are paying $3 a gallon for gas and ruining the US economy.

That's not entirely true.

A statement pulled from the USDA's report on Ukraine in April 2022 (https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/Ukraine-Factsheet-April2022.pdf);
"Ukraine is one of the world’s top agricultural producers and exporters and plays a critical role in
supplying oilseeds and grains to the global market."

They supply roughly 30% of the world's sunflower oil and roughly 5% of the world's wheat, barley and corn.

All are globally traded commodities, all of which America imports at a value of approx. $4.5bn/month as of 2022.

Here are wheat futures for 2022; https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/W_1:COM?gclid=Cj0KCQiA1ZGcBhCoARIsAGQ0kkqCcSN5d4uIqelnGiDa_sw5i1U7iNfWKXYvmd7u7KdtHZnmxInhDXkaAmOEEALw_wcB&internal_promotion=true&utm_campaign=15199871039&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_term=130394020238^aud-1172366382705:dsa-402690192841^^559673290317^^^g


Here's sunflower oil futures; https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/HL*1

Note the spike in early 2022 as the invasion progressed and the decline once the tide started to turn. (Yes, this also mirrors Russian sanctions as they're another major exporter, but either way, a loss of 5% and 30% of global supply respectively does impact price, obviously).

This disruption is driving US inflation of foodstuffs now. Not maybe, not in the future. Today, now. It's not the major driver of inflation, obviously, but it is a factor. As an example, the company I work for makes beer. Most of you have probably bought one of our products this year. We buy a lot of wheat and barley, sourcing both domestically and on the global commodities markets. Our raw material cost is up nearly 30% this year and unfortunately we can only soak up so much before price hikes have to happen. I'm sure that's true of domestic manufacturers of bread, pastries, processed meat products, biscuits etc etc too.

Then there's steel and animal fodder to consider. America (and Europe and China and everyone else) import those from Ukraine as well and all are globally traded commodities.

Cattle futures; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LE=...NzYOEexVtlj7Fc64kTcG5kITDH70vn8luHgHb1IlJxr6E

Then there's oil. Firstly, consider the food commentary above and also consider that the Ukraine is the biggest supplier of grain to the middle east and most of Africa. Russia is number 2. If hypothetically Russia controlled both of those supply lines and had the ability to cause famine in places like Saudi Arabia on a whim, do you think that their 'suggestions' to OPEC in policies involving US oil supply, tariffs and overall production will hold more or less weight? Would America benefit from that arrangement? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...s-crisis-as-worlds-key-wheat-producers-at-war

Or consider Europe. Russia already has Europe over a barrel (pun intended) with oil supply. They gain influence disproportionate to the size of their economy in the European energy market as a result. That comes with political influence. But at least without Ukraine, there are options. Coal, nat gas, biomass, nuclear, all are potential options and will be essential in rebuilding more durable energy supplies in Europe once this all blows over. But who is the biggest source of coal in Europe? Ukraine. Who is the biggest supplier of Uranium in Europe? Ukraine. Whom do all the nat gas pipelines flow through? Ukraine. Who is a major European exporter of wood and other biomass? Ukraine.

Without Ukraine, Russia is a threat to European energy security. With Ukraine, they practically have a monopoly. Again, how much weight does that carry with EU nations if Russia makes 'polite suggestions' around their defense and trade relationships with America? Will America benefit from that shift?

Now in all these instances, America can respond. You can ramp up domestic oil production, you can increase agricultural subsidies to increase output, you can work to build new supply lines for other goods to your major trade partners. But it'll cost money, it'll cost time and it'll sour relationships with all those nations in the interim.

That's the nature of a highly interconnected global economy, which America is the centre of. Stuff that destabilizes it, pretty much anywhere on earth for any reason, really does impact America. This is no different. If, as the world was back early this year, you're looking at a serious possibility that Russia was gonna steamroll the Ukraine and occupy all that territory and you're America, it's probably smart to consider making a relatively small military investment to try and prevent a colossal, expensive clusterf**k to all your key trade partners.

But what do I know? I'm no politician.

 

[Ray B]

Not to get in-between the discussion, but it appears to me that military defeats alone will not change Putin's mind or goals. So far Biden's administration's efforts to curtail Putin's finances have involved attempts to prevent international payments and currency exchange. The Ruble is holding its value and Russia is selling sufficient oil to run the war. I don't have a problem with USA and other countries selling/donating military equipment to Ukraine but I do consider efforts to reduce Russia's financial balance sheet as a more productive option. This means getting the USA back into the oil business and reducing the international price of a barrel of oil to Trump administration levels.

 

[Nature Boy]

So we clearly understand each other, and I readily admit to not following all of the above, I am all about US national interests. Period. It is why I supported the incursion into Afghanistan and opposed the adventure in Iraq. I don't know what your "globalism" term means in your mind, but our support of Ukraine has everything to do with our national interests. What we do or don't "get" from Ukraine is irrelevant. Everything is relevant about stopping Putin's ambitions toward recreating a modern Soviet Union out of Central Europe which could exert catastrophic pressure on our European partners.

I think allowing Putin to retake Crimea was a mistake. He could have been stopped then far easier than now and with far less bloodshed. Obama, like Neville Chamberlain, made a mistake. Fortunately, whatever its faults, this administration is not making it twice.

Your comments about the US military and defense contractors are offensive. Evil treasonous traitors?!? Seriously? I served a career in one and was an appointed officer in the other. That terrible defense establishment - until you need to send the army to war with weaponry that works.

Our total trade with Europe was just shy of $700 B last year. Our trade deficit with Europe ran about $180 B. Most of our trade is in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and manufactured goods. Whether that is a good or bad thing can be debated by economists. But what it surely does mean is that we have a decisive national interest in protecting access to those products for the foreseeable future.

A final point. You have noticed that it is Ukraine that is fighting this war? Not NATO and not the United States. They are the ones sacrificing their lives to preserve their right to a nation and self determination. I am simply certain it will cost this country far more to stop a resurgent Russia later than to aid Ukraine in stopping Putin now.

Please explain:

Defense sector lobbying hit an eight-year high ahead of the House passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act. The $98.9 million the industry spent in the first three quarters of 2021 is more than it has spent in the same time period since 2013.

The House overwhelmingly passed the $768 billion defense bill on Tuesday, providing significant increases for initiatives to counter China, bolster Ukraine’s military and to buy new aircrafts and ships, more money than President Joe Biden’s proposal initially requested.

OFF THAT THE INDUTSRY HAS TO LOBBY FOR "VITAL" "NATIONAL SECURITY" items so desperately needed? Please do explain to me why they do that?
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Since U.S. military actions in Afghanistan were authorized in September 2001, the stocks of the top five defense companies have risen in value by an average of nearly 900%, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 index.

Among those who have benefitted from investments in the stocks are nearly four dozen members of Congress, the people who approve funding for the contracts that make up the bulk of the companies’ revenues.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The total cost of post-9/11 wars including Iraq and other operations has surpassed $6.4 trillion through last year.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________


That is enough money to rebuild our entire crumbling infrastructure and have about 5 trillion left over.

So we clearly understand each other, and I readily admit to not following all of the above, I am all about US national interests. Period. It is why I supported the incursion into Afghanistan and opposed the adventure in Iraq. I don't know what your "globalism" term means in your mind, but our support of Ukraine has everything to do with our national interests. What we do or don't "get" from Ukraine is irrelevant. Everything is relevant about stopping Putin's ambitions toward recreating a modern Soviet Union out of Central Europe which could exert catastrophic pressure on our European partners.

I think allowing Putin to retake Crimea was a mistake. He could have been stopped then far easier than now and with far less bloodshed. Obama, like Neville Chamberlain, made a mistake. Fortunately, whatever its faults, this administration is not making it twice.

Your comments about the US military and defense contractors are offensive. Evil treasonous traitors?!? Seriously? I served a career in one and was an appointed officer in the other. That terrible defense establishment - until you need to send the army to war with weaponry that works.

Our total trade with Europe was just shy of $700 B last year. Our trade deficit with Europe ran about $180 B. Most of our trade is in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and manufactured goods. Whether that is a good or bad thing can be debated by economists. But what it surely does mean is that we have a decisive national interest in protecting access to those products for the foreseeable future.

A final point. You have noticed that it is Ukraine that is fighting this war? Not NATO and not the United States. They are the ones sacrificing their lives to preserve their right to a nation and self determination. I am simply certain it will cost this country far more to stop a resurgent Russia later than to aid Ukraine in stopping Putin now.

Please explain:

Defense sector lobbying hit an eight-year high ahead of the House passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act. The $98.9 million the industry spent in the first three quarters of 2021 is more than it has spent in the same time period since 2013.

The House overwhelmingly passed the $768 billion defense bill on Tuesday, providing significant increases for initiatives to counter China, bolster Ukraine’s military and to buy new aircrafts and ships, more money than President Joe Biden’s proposal initially requested.

OFF THAT THE INDUTSRY HAS TO LOBBY FOR "VITAL" "NATIONAL SECURITY" items so desperately needed? Please do explain to me why they do that?
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Since U.S. military actions in Afghanistan were authorized in September 2001, the stocks of the top five defense companies have risen in value by an average of nearly 900%, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 index.

Among those who have benefitted from investments in the stocks are nearly four dozen members of Congress, the people who approve funding for the contracts that make up the bulk of the companies’ revenues.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

The United States still makes up the lion's share, with its $801 billion in 2021 representing 39 percent of the world's military spending. That's more than the next nine countries combined — still more than 3 years ago when it was merely larger than the next seven combined.Jun 22, 2022
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The total cost of post-9/11 wars including Iraq and other operations has surpassed $6.4 trillion through last year.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________



That is enough money to rebuild our entire crumbling infrastructure and have about 5 trillion left over. Starting wars for money is literally the most immoral and unethical thing anybody can do. The patriot is me as I don't want mostly poor kids killed over a BS money making war.

I'm not saying we don't need a strong military and I support the military. I don't support unneccesary so-called wars where we spent trillions, thousands are maimed or killed and the MI complex laughs while they get rich. That is treason to me, nothing more. Ask those Vietnam guys WTF they got for all their suffering? NOTHING. But guess who got rich like always? Those missile makers. And I'm n o pacifist either. Justify your money all you want, we all know the score.

 

[Nature Boy]

That's not entirely true.

A statement pulled from the USDA's report on Ukraine in April 2022 (https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/Ukraine-Factsheet-April2022.pdf);
"Ukraine is one of the world’s top agricultural producers and exporters and plays a critical role in
supplying oilseeds and grains to the global market."

They supply roughly 30% of the world's sunflower oil and roughly 5% of the world's wheat, barley and corn.

All are globally traded commodities, all of which America imports at a value of approx. $4.5bn/month as of 2022.

Here are wheat futures for 2022; https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/W_1:COM?gclid=Cj0KCQiA1ZGcBhCoARIsAGQ0kkqCcSN5d4uIqelnGiDa_sw5i1U7iNfWKXYvmd7u7KdtHZnmxInhDXkaAmOEEALw_wcB&internal_promotion=true&utm_campaign=15199871039&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_term=130394020238^aud-1172366382705:dsa-402690192841^^559673290317^^^g


Here's sunflower oil futures; https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/HL*1

Note the spike in early 2022 as the invasion progressed and the decline once the tide started to turn. (Yes, this also mirrors Russian sanctions as they're another major exporter, but either way, a loss of 5% and 30% of global supply respectively does impact price, obviously).

This disruption is driving US inflation of foodstuffs now. Not maybe, not in the future. Today, now. It's not the major driver of inflation, obviously, but it is a factor. As an example, the company I work for makes beer. Most of you have probably bought one of our products this year. We buy a lot of wheat and barley, sourcing both domestically and on the global commodities markets. Our raw material cost is up nearly 30% this year and unfortunately we can only soak up so much before price hikes have to happen. I'm sure that's true of domestic manufacturers of bread, pastries, processed meat products, biscuits etc etc too.

Then there's steel and animal fodder to consider. America (and Europe and China and everyone else) import those from Ukraine as well and all are globally traded commodities.

Cattle futures; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LE=...NzYOEexVtlj7Fc64kTcG5kITDH70vn8luHgHb1IlJxr6E

Then there's oil. Firstly, consider the food commentary above and also consider that the Ukraine is the biggest supplier of grain to the middle east and most of Africa. Russia is number 2. If hypothetically Russia controlled both of those supply lines and had the ability to cause famine in places like Saudi Arabia on a whim, do you think that their 'suggestions' to OPEC in policies involving US oil supply, tariffs and overall production will hold more or less weight? Would America benefit from that arrangement? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...s-crisis-as-worlds-key-wheat-producers-at-war

Or consider Europe. Russia already has Europe over a barrel (pun intended) with oil supply. They gain influence disproportionate to the size of their economy in the European energy market as a result. That comes with political influence. But at least without Ukraine, there are options. Coal, nat gas, biomass, nuclear, all are potential options and will be essential in rebuilding more durable energy supplies in Europe once this all blows over. But who is the biggest source of coal in Europe? Ukraine. Who is the biggest supplier of Uranium in Europe? Ukraine. Whom do all the nat gas pipelines flow through? Ukraine. Who is a major European exporter of wood and other biomass? Ukraine.

Without Ukraine, Russia is a threat to European energy security. With Ukraine, they practically have a monopoly. Again, how much weight does that carry with EU nations if Russia makes 'polite suggestions' around their defense and trade relationships with America? Will America benefit from that shift?

Now in all these instances, America can respond. You can ramp up domestic oil production, you can increase agricultural subsidies to increase output, you can work to build new supply lines for other goods to your major trade partners. But it'll cost money, it'll cost time and it'll sour relationships with all those nations in the interim.

That's the nature of a highly interconnected global economy, which America is the centre of. Stuff that destabilizes it, pretty much anywhere on earth for any reason, really does impact America. This is no different. If, as the world was back early this year, you're looking at a serious possibility that Russia was gonna steamroll the Ukraine and occupy all that territory and you're America, it's probably smart to consider making a relatively small military investment to try and prevent a colossal, expensive clusterf**k to all your key trade partners.

But what do I know? I'm no politician.

oh yeah?


What country buys the most wheat from the US?

"The United States has exported 20.9 million metric tons of wheat so far in 2022, down 18.2% from the prior year. The United States has exported the most wheat to Mexico so far in 2022 followed by the Philippines and Japan."

Guess what, we got almost all our fertiilizer from russia, now that does add up. Most of our food is shipped via semi/diesel. Guess who has the crude for deisel that was easiest to get?

Guess what, we just bought 70M (thx US taxpayer) of Ukraine wheat now to send around to everybody else. How awesome! And their wheat crop is back to pre war levels. It's all a scam. Follow the money........

It's not a small investment. It's a huge investment. The US debt is now equal I believe to the enitre world's GDP. MMT is a joke and we are going to get crushed. watch for it

 

[WAB]

oh yeah?


What country buys the most wheat from the US?

"The United States has exported 20.9 million metric tons of wheat so far in 2022, down 18.2% from the prior year. The United States has exported the most wheat to Mexico so far in 2022 followed by the Philippines and Japan."

Guess what, we got almost all our fertiilizer from russia, now that does add up. Most of our food is shipped via semi/diesel. Guess who has the crude for deisel that was easiest to get?

Guess what, we just bought 70M (thx US taxpayer) of Ukraine wheat now to send around to everybody else. How awesome! And their wheat crop is back to pre war levels. It's all a scam. Follow the money........

It's not a small investment. It's a huge investment. The US debt is now equal I believe to the enitre world's GDP. MMT is a joke and we are going to get crushed. watch for it

Baloney. I am a retired senior exec from one of the largest global fertilizer producers. If the rest of your facts are as accurate as your comment on the source of our fertilizer, you sir are wasting our time.

Apologies to those who read my post before I edited it. I react badly to falsehoods presented as facts.

 

[Alistair]

oh yeah?


What country buys the most wheat from the US?

"The United States has exported 20.9 million metric tons of wheat so far in 2022, down 18.2% from the prior year. The United States has exported the most wheat to Mexico so far in 2022 followed by the Philippines and Japan."

Guess what, we got almost all our fertiilizer from russia, now that does add up. Most of our food is shipped via semi/diesel. Guess who has the crude for deisel that was easiest to get?

Guess what, we just bought 70M (thx US taxpayer) of Ukraine wheat now to send around to everybody else. How awesome! And their wheat crop is back to pre war levels. It's all a scam. Follow the money........

It's not a small investment. It's a huge investment. The US debt is now equal I believe to the enitre world's GDP. MMT is a joke and we are going to get crushed. watch for it

You miss the point, it's not where it goes, but at what price.

Wheat is a global commodity that trades for a fixed price (at least mostly) worldwide. Ergo less worldwide supply = higher prices paid for American wheat (or Russian wheat or Chinese wheat).

Now American farmers are probably not too devastated about that and the US government gets their cut of the profit in higher tax income, so they're happy, but who do those American farmers sell their wheat to?

America grows roughly 45-50 million tons of the stuff, imports around 1 million tons more and exports around 20.9million tons. Ergo, most American wheat is used by American food producers to feed Americans either directly, or to feed animals we subsequently eat. As you'd expect.

Now those American food producers are now having to pay more for their raw materials to sell food to Americans. Who covers that price hike? American consumers, i.e us. Same story for ever other country.

High wheat prices are good for primary sector economies. Ukraine for instance, or Russia. They're bad for secondary and tertiary economies, like America. Because the additional import earnings on an expensive agricultural good don't cover the additional cost incurred by secondary industry and consumers in those nations who have to pay for the stuff to make their products.

Ukraine's wheat crop from last season is ok, but I'd don't suppose there's a lot of effort being put into resowing and fertilizing for the next harvest right now, even if the Russians haven't grabbed all the resources required to do so. Even the 2022 over all grain harvest is down roughly 35% yoy (30 million tonnes from last year) https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/ukraine-2022-grain-harvest-at-259-mln-t-as-of-sept-9.

As for the Ukraine costs, I'm afraid it is a small investment. $18.2B is the total spend since 2021, which sounds a lot, but in government budget terms? Meh. Against an overall $1.64T 2022 US military budget, I'd best describe it as a rounding error... or 1.1% of total if you'd prefer. I expect that the US government spends that on office heating bills alone.

For futher context, It's not even half of the overall 'foreign aid budget' for 2022 and is roughly 8% of the amount of money the US is spending on inflation reduction measures this year. Don't even get me started on the rampant COVID costs. I guess it would be 0.35% of the US national debt, but if you did pay that off the national debt, that $18.2B would be accrued back by Thursday 15th of December 2022 in interest and further government spend anyway ($339B additional national debt projected for the next 12 months!!).

The Ukraine is important, but not massively important, which is why the US isn't really trying all that hard. Hard enough to beat the Russians though it seems.

Oh, and US diesel is refined primarily from US crude, with Canada taking up the slack. I'm afraid I'm not sure if that proves or disproves the point you were trying to make as I'm not certain what that point was supposed to be...

 

[Nature Boy]

Baloney. I am a retired senior exec from one of the largest global fertilizer producers. If the rest of your facts are as accurate as your comment on the source of our fertilizer, you sir are wasting our time.

Apologies to those who read my post before I edited it. I react badly to falsehoods presented as facts.

United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers was US$1.28 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on November of 2022.

Not sure exact percent but this is a lot and the point was and is that we got oil, fertilizer, etc from RUSSIA, whil getting very little of anything from Ukraine. But you go ahead and tell everybody that this doesn't affect US prices. I'll wait.

 

[Nature Boy]

You miss the point, it's not where it goes, but at what price.

Wheat is a global commodity that trades for a fixed price (at least mostly) worldwide. Ergo less worldwide supply = higher prices paid for American wheat (or Russian wheat or Chinese wheat).

Now American farmers are probably not too devastated about that and the US government gets their cut of the profit in higher tax income, so they're happy, but who do those American farmers sell their wheat to?

America grows roughly 45-50 million tons of the stuff, imports around 1 million tons more and exports around 20.9million tons. Ergo, most American wheat is used by American food producers to feed Americans either directly, or to feed animals we subsequently eat. As you'd expect.

Now those American food producers are now having to pay more for their raw materials to sell food to Americans. Who covers that price hike? American consumers, i.e us. Same story for ever other country.

High wheat prices are good for primary sector economies. Ukraine for instance, or Russia. They're bad for secondary and tertiary economies, like America. Because the additional import earnings on an expensive agricultural good don't cover the additional cost incurred by secondary industry and consumers in those nations who have to pay for the stuff to make their products.

Ukraine's wheat crop from last season is ok, but I'd don't suppose there's a lot of effort being put into resowing and fertilizing for the next harvest right now, even if the Russians haven't grabbed all the resources required to do so. Even the 2022 over all grain harvest is down roughly 35% yoy (30 million tonnes from last year) https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/ukraine-2022-grain-harvest-at-259-mln-t-as-of-sept-9.

As for the Ukraine costs, I'm afraid it is a small investment. $18.2B is the total spend since 2021, which sounds a lot, but in government budget terms? Meh. Against an overall $1.64T 2022 US military budget, I'd best describe it as a rounding error... or 1.1% of total if you'd prefer. I expect that the US government spends that on office heating bills alone.

For futher context, It's not even half of the overall 'foreign aid budget' for 2022 and is roughly 8% of the amount of money the US is spending on inflation reduction measures this year. Don't even get me started on the rampant COVID costs. I guess it would be 0.35% of the US national debt, but if you did pay that off the national debt, that $18.2B would be accrued back by Thursday 15th of December 2022 in interest and further government spend anyway ($339B additional national debt projected for the next 12 months!!).

The Ukraine is important, but not massively important, which is why the US isn't really trying all that hard. Hard enough to beat the Russians though it seems.

Oh, and US diesel is refined primarily from US crude, with Canada taking up the slack. I'm afraid I'm not sure if that proves or disproves the point you were trying to make as I'm not certain what that point was supposed to be...

No Russian crude drives up the price per your example. Buit it seems all here really love this proxy war vs big bad Russia, so be it.

 

[WAB]

United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers was US$1.28 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on November of 2022.

Not sure exact percent but this is a lot and the point was and is that we got oil, fertilizer, etc from RUSSIA, whil getting very little of anything from Ukraine. But you go ahead and tell everybody that this doesn't affect US prices. I'll wait.

Honestly, it’s late and you’re not worth the time. If you want to educate yourself, figure out which primary macronutrient we buy from Russia and what our alternative is. If canpotex doesn’t figure in to your answer you haven’t figured it out yet.

 

[Alistair]

No Russian crude drives up the price per your example. Buit it seems all here really love this proxy war vs big bad Russia, so be it.

Absolutely it does. More joys of an interconnected global economy. You gotta deal with nasty people with whom your interests don't really align when it's beneficial to do so. China for instance.

The consideration here is;

Does the short, medium and long term costs associated with a resurgent Russia to US trade interests for the foreseeable future justify short term actions like Russian sanctions which hurt everyone now. The overall consensus? Probably, although I'm sure the US and everyone else will be very eager to resume trade with Russia as soon as humanly possible once they've declared themselves 'really very sorry' for this particular mess.

Politics, huh?