I am not picking on South Africa or Marius. My precautionary tale is: Review the sources and read for meaning. I took a good read of the article by this author and selected some of the content for review.
My comments are BOLD
The date of the article is important.
March 9, 2020
The situation is rapidly changing, so up to date information is imperative.
Note the change in the Epidemic curve from March 9 to March 12.
"Is the current level of global panic around COVID-19 justified?
Yes, because this is a novel new Coronavirus strain. We do not know much about it. We can base epidemiology and stats on only the numbers over the last 10 weeks. The longer and more data we collect, the more we understand the trend of the virus."
Panic justified? Ignorance breeds fear and panic. We should certainly be concerned but act on the science and take responsible action and precautions.
"Risk= Exposure x Probability of effect x Consequence
The traveler with the highest risk will be a traveler in a country with:
Exposure: high ongoing Incidence rate,
exposure to crowds of people, not practicing good general hygiene. Currently, the most affected countries are in Europe and Asia, specifically Italy and China.
Probability of effect:
people with a higher risk of complicated infection, for example, elderly people older than 65, immune suppression, cancer patients on chemo, HIV, longterm cortisone, diabetics, cardiac patient and chronic lung patients. These are all people who should be especially careful."
What is the biggest
“danger zone” for international travelers?
In terms of geographical locations, there are several real-time websites that give the latest Coronavirus epidemiology and statistics."
The author sends you to a third party site for disease numbers.
Just go the the source that actually keeps track and provides situation reports daily.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
"Where are the highest risk areas for travelers?
The highest risk areas are normally where crowds of people are gathered. Museums, train stations, shopping centers, night clubs, and sports events to name a few. "
Why does the author and the doctor not reference planes and airports?
"According to some website, the biggest danger zones will be are “countries with the largest increase in cases” as well as the countries with “largest percentage increase in cases”. At the time of writing the highest risk areas were, therefore, Italy, France, and the USA"
Interesting listing.
"What are the best ways to avoid contraction while traveling?
To avoid contracting the virus, you have to risk mitigate. As mentioned earlier, risk mitigation involves addressing all the steps that affect risk.
Exposure mitigation means avoiding crowds, minimize physical contact, no contact within 2 meters of sick patients, try not to touch your mouth, nose, eyes unnecessarily, cough in your elbow when needed and regular use of hand sanitizer. Surgical masks do not give sufficient protection. These masks are meant for the sick patient. Healthy patients in contact with sick patients should wear an N95 mask.
Anyone been in a line up at an Airport?
"What type of travel destinations/environments are safest to travel to? The safest travel destinations will be those with an absence of crowds, countries with no cases, or a decreased percentage of cases.
..... Africa looks like a good travel destination currently! Countries that will have sufficient medical care in case a patient develops Corona and might require hospitalization. South Africa, for example, has excellent hospitals both public and private and has already put measures in place to detect, treat and contain the virus in South Africa."
The conclusions from research on the efficacy of screening measures of temperature/fever monitoring at points of entry to control the flu.
"Effectiveness of Border Screening for Detecting Influenza in Arriving Airline Travelers
Conclusions. Border screening using self-reported symptoms and temperature testing has limitations for preventing pandemic influenza from entering a country. Using “any symptom” or cough would lead to many uninfected people being investigated, yet some infected people would remain undetected. If more specific criteria such as fever were used, most infected people would enter the country despite screening."
Am J Public Health. 2013 August; 103(8): 1412–1418.
The change in South Africa's cases in 5 days.
All Travel related cases; Europe, Brazil, UK and USA.
Note that there were four people who made it through screening and came into close contact with 65 people.
(Want to be like the alarmist media: That is a greater than 500% increase in reported cases in five days)
2020-03-09 20:03
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in South Africa has increased to seven, Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize confirmed on Monday.
Mkhize announced that all the people - six from KwaZulu-Natal and one in Gauteng - were part of the group of 10 who went on a ski trip to Italy. The four recent people have altogether identified 65 people that they have made contact with who will be tested and monitored.
"Do you think that it’s necessary for travelers to cancel their plans completely?
The WHO website will tell if traveling to specific countries is banned or discouraged."
No, in fact, WHO does not provide direction on this subject other than:
WHO GUIDELINES ON SCREENING
"Management of ill travellers at points of entry – international airports, ports and ground crossings – in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak
Interim guidance 16 February 2020
Staff should be instructed to
encourage travellers to maintain more than 1 m distance between themselves while waiting to cross the POE, including when completing entry forms.
If travellers will be screened for fever, handheld no-touch thermometers or thermal imaging cameras should be used to ascertain a traveller’s temperature.
3.2.2 Assessing travellers for COVID-19 disease
The following signs, symptoms and history should be assessed.
- Signs or symptoms of illness suggesting respiratory infection should be evaluated,
- including fever >38° C or the traveller mentioning feeling feverish;
- cough;
- breathing difficulties.
- A history of possible exposure to the COVID-19 virus should be evaluated,
- including travel to a country with ongoing transmission of the COVID-19 virus 14 days prior to the onset of symptoms;
- a visit to any healthcare facility in a country with ongoing transmission in the 14 days prior to symptom onset;
- close physical contact during the past 14 days with a traveller suspected or confirmed to have COVID-19 infection;
- a visit to any live animal markets in a country with ongoing COVID-19 virus transmission in the 14 days prior to symptom onset."
Keep your head on and monitor the situation with information from reliable sources.
Today is International Happy hand washing day!