COVID-19 Coronavirus UPDATES, BANS, CLOSURES, ADVISORY, etc.

[Ray B]

It gets back to the known problem versus the unknown problem. People are familiar with "the flu" and its health issues. Being familiar with it we have a sense of control regarding the disease and it course. Coronavirus is unknown to us and so it becomes a fear/emotion issue. while it may not be as lethal as existing flu diseases, we are unable to deal with it on a logical level and lack the familiarity to feel in-control. So naturally when dealing out of fear we over-correct in our actions. We'll see how it goes when we get to a more rational perception of it.

 

[Wheels]

Wheels,
the dynamic is frightening.
A fortnight ago, I wrote of 70 infected people in Germany.
Now, less than 14 days later, we have 1,677 officially infected as of this afternoon.
Please help me to calculate, because I can't believe it, it is an increase in two weeks of almost 2.300 %!
In 3 weeks nobody will book a hunting trip to Africa for 2020.
We then also have no more luxury problems but others.
Uganda now forbids Germans entry into her country !!
They just don't have a corona case there ,yet, because they don't test (can't test?), but millions of Chinese in their countries.At the airports last October,I saw almost more yellow faces than whites.
The economic effects are already devastating.
It is a pity that China cannot be sued.
Foxi

Foxi,

I realize most people on this thread disagree with me regarding the virus and that is fine. We all have opinions.

I have never been an alarmist about Ebola or any of the other virus's since being a member of AH. The last week of January I spent quite a bit of time studying Covid 19. It is different than anything we have experienced in our lives, and it is something we should prepare for. It is definitely not the flu. Also don't believe everything you hear coming out of China. Before social media was virtually shut down, the information coming out of the country was completely different than coming out of the CCP.

For 80-85% of the population, this virus will have symptoms similar to the flu. For 15-20% of the population it is completely different. Medical facilities will probably be overwhelmed. In America we are like Italy. We don't have enough ICU's. We also don't have enough ventilators. The key at this point is for countries to try to flatten out the peak demand for medical care by self isolation, as much as possible. Forced isolation, that we saw in China will probably not work well in Europe or North America. (It will be interesting to watch Italy) It will be interesting to see how voluntary self isolation is going to be. Our older generation will have significant issues.

Travel and tourism are going to crash. Since the likelihood of a vaccine coming out before spring/summer of 2021 is low, many air carriers, hotels, cruise lines, restaurants, etc. will be gone without government bailouts. The good news for you is that Germany is in pretty good shape among first world countries to bail out your industry with your low debt.

Low interest rates have caused there to be a bubble in all asset classes. The equity markets have been on a rise for over ten years. A significant correction was inevitable without the virus. Now if the transportation, entertainment, restaurant and tourism industries crash, how far will that take the market before everything plummets. Then, how long before they rebound. If you look back to the correction 12 years ago, it was 50% if I recall correct. At the end of January, I moved 80% of our nontaxable equities into short term bonds. I have never done that for a contagion before. That is how convinced I was that this was completely different from anything we have ever seen in our lives. I know many are going back in the market. In a bull market, buying the bounce always works. In a bear market it doesn't. All you do is catch a falling knife over and over again. The question is are we still in a bull market or have we moved to a bear market?

Realize that 80+% of the ingredients that go into pharmaceuticals are made in China. If you or any member of your family has drugs that they need, get them. The first of February, all of my nuclear family got a six month supply. Pharmaceuticals are the only thing we are hoarding due to the fact that are pharmaceutical companies have offshored way too much to China. I am not hoarding toilet paper. We have plenty of trees in our yard that are just coming out of dormancy.

Initially I thought Africa was going to be infected in a large way. I have seen a couple of things that make it look like the virus may be temperature sensitive. At the moment, most infections lie in the range of 30*-50* N. Perhaps Capricorn-Cancer will be spared the main effects of the virus and we can go hunting if we can get a plane to take us. I still want to see more information regarding this prior to making a decision.

We are supposed to be in Mozambique at the end of April. At this point we are still planning on going. A month and a half is a long time in virus years. I have a suspicion that the decision on the trip will be made for us before we have to make the decision ourselves.

The following information is two weeks old. Take it however you want. It is one Dr.'s presentation to the American Hospital Association showing his methodology for comparing COVID 19 to the common flu.

The economic effects are already devastating.
It is a pity that China cannot be sued.
Foxi

The only level 4 virology lab in China is in Wuhan. Virologist say there are two markers on the RNA that are strange and have never been seen on a corona virus before. Around the end of January, a lab in India first identified those markers and thought the virus was weaponized. Politically this was all shut down early. Could a lab technician have done a poor job with his PPE's, allowing the virus to escape?

The American CDC offered help early on, in Wuhan. The WHO also offered help. Both organizations were refused access to Wuhan. It just makes a person ask more questions.

China may not be able to be sued, but America has completely changed the financial paradigm with China. If the EU does the same, there is a decent chance of a major economic disruption in China. China already has so much debt they are on the edge of collapse. Perhaps enough economic turmoil will remove control from the CCP. At least we can hope.

 

[markm]

This is a no brainer.

Some may see it as a waste of money but I always get travel and medical rescue insurance. In years past it was Travel Guard and Global Rescue. Now, it's Ripcord. A friend who was going to accompany me to RSA hurt his back two weeks before departure. He was reimbursed 100% of his travel expenses, gun permit costs and even his safari deposit.

 

[markm]

Wheels,
the dynamic is frightening.
A fortnight ago, I wrote of 70 infected people in Germany.
Now, less than 14 days later, we have 1,677 officially infected as of this afternoon.
Please help me to calculate, because I can't believe it, it is an increase in two weeks of almost 2.300 %!
In 3 weeks nobody will book a hunting trip to Africa for 2020.
We then also have no more luxury problems but others.
Uganda now forbids Germans entry into her country !!
They just don't have a corona case there ,yet, because they don't test (can't test?), but millions of Chinese in their countries.At the airports last October,I saw almost more yellow faces than whites.
The economic effects are already devastating.
It is a pity that China cannot be sued.
Foxi

Should have taken care of China way back when now they are the whores of the world.

 

[markm]

Considering the number of Chinese in Africa, my guess is the virus was already there years ago. Add in the number of Africans Italy took in over the last few years, it's no wonder it's an epidemic.

According to figures from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 23,126 people arrived in Italy in 2018, compared with 118,914 in 2017. According to UN figures, 2,458 migrants reached the country from October 2018 to January 2019, the period covered by the most recent ISPI figures. Feb 14, 2019

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/world/europe/italy-palermo-immigrants-salvino.html

And now you wonder why we should keep our boarders closed.

 

[Nyati]

The Cinegetica hunting show which was due to open next week in Madrid has been canceled, as well as a Blade show and Militaria exhibit. Or any gathering of more than 1000 persons.

Schools and University are also closed for the next two weeks.

I fear bookings for hunting in Africa are now on hold, awaiting further news about the development of this crisis.

 

[curtism1234]

Germany has now estimated that 70% of their country will get the virus.

If 50% of the US gets it and a conservative 1% die, that would be about 165000 people dead in the US.

As another poster said a couple pages back, you start with 25 cases and 10 days later it's 1000. Well 10 days from now it's going to 50,000. Ten days after that a million.

This has the potential to get out of control very quickly. The hope is these mass closures will slow the spread down considerably.

If successful, I hope everyone understands the action by government, media, business, physicians, etc succeeded. Instead, I fear everyone is going to say "see, told you it was nothing"

 

[Wheels]

If 50% of the US gets it and a conservative 1% die, that would be about 165000 people dead in the US.

"

You may want to recheck your math on this.

330,000,000 x 50% x 1% = 1,650,000

 

[curtism1234]

You may want to recheck your math on this.

330,000,000 x 50% x 1% = 1,650,000

Busy day at work. I originally had the post read 1.65 million, did a rushed refigure cause that sounded way too high, obviously goofed that up, quickly edit it so people wouldn't call me stupid, and then had a customer come in, and I couldn't confirm which was right. That's what I get for playing on the internet at work...

So yes, 1.65 million

I mean...

 

[Lakebranch338]

Seems to me that part oft the problem is that people cant think for them selfs but needs our goverments to do that. Goverments are generally slow..

Do not go on a trip. Wash your hands. Dont go to to work with a runny nose.
Hard?

 

[amerimono]

Some may see it as a waste of money but I always get travel and medical rescue insurance. In years past it was Travel Guard and Global Rescue. Now, it's Ripcord. A friend who was going to accompany me to RSA hurt his back two weeks before departure. He was reimbursed 100% of his travel expenses, gun permit costs and even his safari deposit.

I am supposed to be going to RSA next month for a safari and have been looking into travel insurance for the first time. I've never used it for my previous safaris. I have looked into global rescue, but it is a bit difficult to determine what they cover with their new structure. Are you finding that ripcord is comparably better?

 

[Hogpatrol]

I am supposed to be going to RSA next month for a safari and have been looking into travel insurance for the first time. I've never used it for my previous safaris. I have looked into global rescue, but it is a bit difficult to determine what they cover with their new structure. Are you finding that ripcord is comparably better?

It's a combination policy. Ripcord covers travel insurance and medical evacuation. Both excellent services but for me it was cheaper than buying Travel Guard and Global Rescue.

 

[gillettehunter]

From the other network:
On January 31st the CDC classified Corona or Covid-19 the illness caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus as a "PHE" public health emergency. The travel impact of this edict is that virtually ALL travel insurance companies including RIPCORD for whom we sell as agents have in their policy statement a clause that specifically excludes coverage for all faucets of travel that could be affected by Corona when a CDC warning is in affect. CBS reported yesterday that the purchase of travel insurance is up 60% but it is a waste of money if you are trying to cover anything to do with Corona. This information comes from a RIPCORD employee.

Since my first post yesterday a 57th country has been added to the outbreak, Nigeria, so the disease is spreading south in Africa. A traveler from Milan Italy entered Nigeria and several days later was diagnosed so hundreds were exposed on the flight and those other individuals have spread across the area since the flight. Nigeria claims they have the situation under control. Given that the first warning of this disease was made on January 31st in Wuhan China rapid spread is of concern to travelers.

Some facts that anyone traveling to Africa in the next few months should consider.

While NOT currently on the list of affected countries the dense populations in major hunting countries represents an elevated concern. It is the start of fall/winter in the southern hemisphere and any veteran of Africa has seen how locals and staff react to a 50 degree day, coveralls and stocking caps when most of us from North America are comfortable in shorts and tee. The local population will sleep compacted in small quarters for warmth and gather closely around fires to stay warm all good ways to rapidly spread this virus.

I'm not going to cover all the affects of being infected but 85000 have been infected with 2800 deaths around 4% ACCORDING to the Chinese Government. Out of that number around 35% become seriously ill and 25% become carriers with no symptoms.

The chance that this will end up in the shanty towns of major populations centers in south Africa is virtually certain.

The only travel insurance that will be available to hunters will be in the form of refundable fare tickets or a low or no cost changeable ticket. We recommend that you spend the extra $$ for these safer fares for 2020.

You should consider opening a dialog with your professional hunter about how safari deposits lost as a result of a travel ban or major restrictions will be handled.

You should also consider how a 14 to 21 day quarantine could affect you if an outbreak occurs in your hunting area.

I sincerely hope NONE of these scenarios come to pass the effect on a population with little or no medical care options would be horrible and the last thing my many friend in Africa need.


Read your policies carefully. Your travel insurance may not cover you from interuptions from the corona virus.....
Bruce

 

[grand veneur]

Due to the current international situation regarding this virus infection , I wouldn't plan to travel.

If the situation is getting worse , worldwide the borders will be closed and the return home could be problematic. After what is currently discussed in the expert groups , it does not look very good with the future actions that will be taken.

The reason would be to wait at home and see what happens. At the moment all scenarios are still conceivable.

 

[DieJager]

My province recommends self isolation, we are told now to work at home, if the job allows it, for the next 14 days. The province where I live is hit the hardest in our country. But keeping calm and following the advices.

 

[Tucketed]

Let’s see what President Trump says tonight. I saw that there is possibility of travel restrictions for US / Europe.

 

[YancyW]

I would be very concerned about getting suck in quarantine or other travel restrictions over the next few weeks.

 

[Wheels]

Foxi,

Low interest rates have caused there to be a bubble in all asset classes. The equity markets have been on a rise for over ten years. A significant correction was inevitable without the virus. Now if the transportation, entertainment, restaurant and tourism industries crash, how far will that take the market before everything plummets. Then, how long before they rebound. If you look back to the correction 12 years ago, it was 50% if I recall correct. ............... I know many are going back in the market. In a bull market, buying the bounce always works. In a bear market it doesn't. All you do is catch a falling knife over and over again. The question is are we still in a bull market or have we moved to a bear market?

The one thing I failed to mention regarding the financial markets are the derivatives markets. The problem is no one knows how big the derivatives market really is. World GDP is around $80-85 trillion. Total assets in the entire world, excluding derivatives are around that same number. Some estimates have the derivatives market at over $1 quadrillion. This is multiples of GDP and assets of the world.

Remember what happened when derivatives were triggered in 2008, when we had far fewer derivatives, and the world was better equipped to handle the losses. ie: USA debt in 2008 was $10 trillion. It is now $23 trillion. What if bailouts now amounted to tens of trillions of dollars instead of a trillion or so. At what point is debased currency accepted. I don't know. It is just a question everyone should ask themselves.

If a few derivatives get triggered, there is a decent chance it will trigger others and start a chain reaction. Where does it start and where does it end is anybodies guess.

Call me strange, but my mind finds satisfaction in studying and gaming out the macro. I am not a financial adviser and I am not trying to scare anybody. Everybody should make their own decisions. All I am trying to do is provide information to friends and people in my community, that they may not have considered before.

All the best and I hope things go well for everyone!

 

[sgt_zim]

The one thing I failed to mention regarding the financial markets are the derivatives markets. The problem is no one knows how big the derivatives market really is. World GDP is around $80-85 trillion. Total assets in the entire world, excluding derivatives are around that same number. Some estimates have the derivatives market at over $1 quadrillion. This is multiples of GDP and assets of the world.

Remember what happened when derivatives were triggered in 2008, when we had far fewer derivatives, and the world was better equipped to handle the losses. ie: USA debt in 2008 was $10 trillion. It is now $23 trillion. What if bailouts now amounted to tens of trillions of dollars instead of a trillion or so. At what point is debased currency accepted. I don't know. It is just a question everyone should ask themselves.

If a few derivatives get triggered, there is a decent chance it will trigger others and start a chain reaction. Where does it start and where does it end is anybodies guess.

Call me strange, but my mind finds satisfaction in studying and gaming out the macro. I am not a financial adviser and I am not trying to scare anybody. Everybody should make their own decisions. All I am trying to do is provide information to friends and people in my community, that they may not have considered before.

All the best and I hope things go well for everyone!

Agreed - the ultimate consequence of this is going to be economic, and therefore political.

Interesting times we're living in.

 

[Brent in Az]

NCAA announced that no spectators will be allowed in to the March madness tournament games.

I think this panic is out of control.

Lets kick China right in the teeth