Wheels,
the dynamic is frightening.
A fortnight ago, I wrote of 70 infected people in Germany.
Now, less than 14 days later, we have 1,677 officially infected as of this afternoon.
Please help me to calculate, because I can't believe it, it is an increase in two weeks of almost 2.300 %!
In 3 weeks nobody will book a hunting trip to Africa for 2020.
We then also have no more luxury problems but others.
Uganda now forbids Germans entry into her country !!
![Er... what? o_O o_O](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@14.0.2/assets/72x72/1f635.png)
They just don't have a corona case there ,yet, because they don't test (can't test?), but millions of Chinese in their countries.At the airports last October,I saw almost more yellow faces than whites.
The economic effects are already devastating.
It is a pity that China cannot be sued.
Foxi
Foxi,
I realize most people on this thread disagree with me regarding the virus and that is fine. We all have opinions.
I have never been an alarmist about Ebola or any of the other virus's since being a member of AH. The last week of January I spent quite a bit of time studying Covid 19. It is different than anything we have experienced in our lives, and it is something we should prepare for. It is definitely not the flu. Also don't believe everything you hear coming out of China. Before social media was virtually shut down, the information coming out of the country was completely different than coming out of the CCP.
For 80-85% of the population, this virus will have symptoms similar to the flu. For 15-20% of the population it is completely different. Medical facilities will probably be overwhelmed. In America we are like Italy. We don't have enough ICU's. We also don't have enough ventilators. The key at this point is for countries to try to flatten out the peak demand for medical care by self isolation, as much as possible. Forced isolation, that we saw in China will probably not work well in Europe or North America. (It will be interesting to watch Italy) It will be interesting to see how voluntary self isolation is going to be. Our older generation will have significant issues.
Travel and tourism are going to crash. Since the likelihood of a vaccine coming out before spring/summer of 2021 is low, many air carriers, hotels, cruise lines, restaurants, etc. will be gone without government bailouts. The good news for you is that Germany is in pretty good shape among first world countries to bail out your industry with your low debt.
Low interest rates have caused there to be a bubble in all asset classes. The equity markets have been on a rise for over ten years. A significant correction was inevitable without the virus. Now if the transportation, entertainment, restaurant and tourism industries crash, how far will that take the market before everything plummets. Then, how long before they rebound. If you look back to the correction 12 years ago, it was 50% if I recall correct. At the end of January, I moved 80% of our nontaxable equities into short term bonds. I have never done that for a contagion before. That is how convinced I was that this was completely different from anything we have ever seen in our lives. I know many are going back in the market. In a bull market, buying the bounce always works. In a bear market it doesn't. All you do is catch a falling knife over and over again. The question is are we still in a bull market or have we moved to a bear market?
Realize that 80+% of the ingredients that go into pharmaceuticals are made in China. If you or any member of your family has drugs that they need, get them. The first of February, all of my nuclear family got a six month supply. Pharmaceuticals are the only thing we are hoarding due to the fact that are pharmaceutical companies have offshored way too much to China. I am not hoarding toilet paper. We have plenty of trees in our yard that are just coming out of dormancy.
Initially I thought Africa was going to be infected in a large way. I have seen a couple of things that make it look like the virus may be temperature sensitive. At the moment, most infections lie in the range of 30*-50* N. Perhaps Capricorn-Cancer will be spared the main effects of the virus and we can go hunting if we can get a plane to take us. I still want to see more information regarding this prior to making a decision.
We are supposed to be in Mozambique at the end of April. At this point we are still planning on going. A month and a half is a long time in virus years. I have a suspicion that the decision on the trip will be made for us before we have to make the decision ourselves.
The following information is two weeks old. Take it however you want. It is one Dr.'s presentation to the American Hospital Association showing his methodology for comparing COVID 19 to the common flu.
The economic effects are already devastating.
It is a pity that China cannot be sued.
Foxi
The only level 4 virology lab in China is in Wuhan. Virologist say there are two markers on the RNA that are strange and have never been seen on a corona virus before. Around the end of January, a lab in India first identified those markers and thought the virus was weaponized. Politically this was all shut down early. Could a lab technician have done a poor job with his PPE's, allowing the virus to escape?
The American CDC offered help early on, in Wuhan. The WHO also offered help. Both organizations were refused access to Wuhan. It just makes a person ask more questions.
China may not be able to be sued, but America has completely changed the financial paradigm with China. If the EU does the same, there is a decent chance of a major economic disruption in China. China already has so much debt they are on the edge of collapse. Perhaps enough economic turmoil will remove control from the CCP. At least we can hope.