Collapse Coming?

[DillonG]

This is a blue light special sale for me. Ranges on short-term S&P performance does indicate the conditions for a correction. I’m actually more curious about the domestic real estate market. Homes have been incredibly over-priced in the last 3 years. The state of demographics and Fed reporting has me curious about what will happen to the value of homes in the next 12-24 months.

 

[Uncontrolled_round_feed]

My portfolio

 

[Lone Star Bluegrass]

My portfolio
View attachment 624452

I didn’t know you were Irish!!!

 

[shootist~]

 

[HookMeUpII]

Doing this for a living...there very well could be. We saw it starting to paint out in the data a couple weeks ago. Weak earnings from everything from tech, to consumer staples, etc. Then the jobs report and unemployment was the icing on the cake. The raw inflation data is lagging (CPI, PPI). Job reports, unemployment, new housing starts, etc are a little more real time. Mark my woods, the next raw inflation data is going to be a big downside surprise.

I told most of my clients the Fed now got the economy where it wanted it. I don't agree with how it was done. The rate increases were too fast and large. The key now? How do they react? Powell's job is already on the line if Trump gets elected. Harris is too stupid to understand so (God help us) if she gets elected, he will stay. Jeremy Seigel hit the nail on the head today and called for an emergency rate cut of 75 bips. That would be nice, but a little too aggressive. 50 bips, August, is my call if the data and market keeps trending this way. The Chicago Fed president came out today and reassured everyone that if the economy slips, they will react.

Oil is going to tick higher. Middle East is in full red alert mode. US joint base was attacked by rockets in Iraq. Biden is frantically meeting behind closed doors. There are some big catalysts in the works. The real estate market is very 08-esque. Super high prices, super high rates, but the only difference is lack of inventory...unless you're in Florida, Texas, etc. No more bottomless-pit ARM's at least.

The chain reaction was the world reacting to our data, not the other way around. This is now homegrown again like 2008. We have the world's eyes very much on us right now.

If Trump gets elected, please God, rumor on the street is Jamie Dimon is the pipeline as next Fed Chair. If you thought 2020 was an important election? This one is huge.

Rampant inflation.
Underwater commercial real estate.
Upside down residential market.
Conflict with Russia
Conflict with Iran

 

[Daniel Cary]

I believe it collapsed .. long ago

 

[Trophyhunter01]

Invest in the sectors of 556, 308, 9MM. Good to own the backbone of the NATO index.

 

[Red Leg]

Invest in the sectors of 556, 308, 9MM. Good to own the backbone of the NATO index.

Not wishing to sound like a war profiteer, but defense stocks, ok maybe not Boeing, hold rather well in this environment.

 

[schwerpunkt88]

Perhaps this is a downturn and not a collapse, but at some point, the bills are going to have to be paid, and the national deficits are going to someday eat our lunch. I think the U.S is not unlike Great Britian circa 1913. Britian was at the zenith of her power. 43 years and 2 wars later, bankrupt.

 

[wesheltonj]

Deutsche Bank said to offload $1B in U.S. commercial property loans (NYSE:DB)

Deutsche Bank seeks to unload $1B in U.S. commercial real estate loans to relieve capital strain as borrowing costs impact profits.

seekingalpha.com

Tells me a lot, collapse coming. Although, I can’t convince my wife of that, who wants to hold the line. Hold the line usually takes years to make back the loss.

 

[John Wasmuth]

…

 

[lwaters]

I may start buying more when the s&p drops 30%. Otherwise staying the course. We're not even in a correction yet.

 

[DLSJR]

Doing this for a living...there very well could be. We saw it starting to paint out in the data a couple weeks ago. Weak earnings from everything from tech, to consumer staples, etc. Then the jobs report and unemployment was the icing on the cake. The raw inflation data is lagging (CPI, PPI). Job reports, unemployment, new housing starts, etc are a little more real time. Mark my woods, the next raw inflation data is going to be a big downside surprise.

I told most of my clients the Fed now got the economy where it wanted it. I don't agree with how it was done. The rate increases were too fast and large. The key now? How do they react? Powell's job is already on the line if Trump gets elected. Harris is too stupid to understand so (God help us) if she gets elected, he will stay. Jeremy Seigel hit the nail on the head today and called for an emergency rate cut of 75 bips. That would be nice, but a little too aggressive. 50 bips, August, is my call if the data and market keeps trending this way. The Chicago Fed president came out today and reassured everyone that if the economy slips, they will react.

Oil is going to tick higher. Middle East is in full red alert mode. US joint base was attacked by rockets in Iraq. Biden is frantically meeting behind closed doors. There are some big catalysts in the works. The real estate market is very 08-esque. Super high prices, super high rates, but the only difference is lack of inventory...unless you're in Florida, Texas, etc. No more bottomless-pit ARM's at least.

The chain reaction was the world reacting to our data, not the other way around. This is now homegrown again like 2008. We have the world's eyes very much on us right now.

If Trump gets elected, please God, rumor on the street is Jamie Dimon is the pipeline as next Fed Chair. If you thought 2020 was an important election? This one is huge.

Rampant inflation.
Underwater commercial real estate.
Upside down residential market.
Conflict with Russia
Conflict with Iran

I agree with nearly all of what you said. This has been in the works for a while and right now there is a flock of Black Swans circling. Frankly, I’m a little surprised it has taken as long as it has. The market seems to have largely ignored eroding fundamentals for a while. It was telling that Berkshire Hathaway sold off their Bank of America holdings and 40% of their Apple holdings. I heard that Berkshire is now sitting on $277,000,000,000.00 in cash. That tells you where they think it’s wise to be right now. They’re hugely liquid and expect big opportunities in the future, they also think risk is high right now.

With the current administration, we find ourselves in perhaps the most dangerous geopolitical situation Since World War Two, and probably more so due to nuclear weapons in the hands of nations such as Iran and North Korea. There is potential for events to rapidly spiral out of control with the inept leadership in DC. Now is not a time to rush into things, but rather to stay liquid and be patient.