Doing this for a living...there very well could be. We saw it starting to paint out in the data a couple weeks ago. Weak earnings from everything from tech, to consumer staples, etc. Then the jobs report and unemployment was the icing on the cake. The raw inflation data is lagging (CPI, PPI). Job reports, unemployment, new housing starts, etc are a little more real time. Mark my woods, the next raw inflation data is going to be a big downside surprise.
I told most of my clients the Fed now got the economy where it wanted it. I don't agree with how it was done. The rate increases were too fast and large. The key now? How do they react? Powell's job is already on the line if Trump gets elected. Harris is too stupid to understand so (God help us) if she gets elected, he will stay. Jeremy Seigel hit the nail on the head today and called for an emergency rate cut of 75 bips. That would be nice, but a little too aggressive. 50 bips, August, is my call if the data and market keeps trending this way. The Chicago Fed president came out today and reassured everyone that if the economy slips, they will react.
Oil is going to tick higher. Middle East is in full red alert mode. US joint base was attacked by rockets in Iraq. Biden is frantically meeting behind closed doors. There are some big catalysts in the works. The real estate market is very 08-esque. Super high prices, super high rates, but the only difference is lack of inventory...unless you're in Florida, Texas, etc. No more bottomless-pit ARM's at least.
The chain reaction was the world reacting to our data, not the other way around. This is now homegrown again like 2008. We have the world's eyes very much on us right now.
If Trump gets elected, please God, rumor on the street is Jamie Dimon is the pipeline as next Fed Chair. If you thought 2020 was an important election? This one is huge.
Rampant inflation.
Underwater commercial real estate.
Upside down residential market.
Conflict with Russia
Conflict with Iran
