I was going to sit this one out. But it's raining in Phoenix this morning and promises to do so all day and into tomorrow. We're spoiled here in the desert and just stay inside and wait such weather out. So with only a few last tax things to deal with, it looks to be a slow weekend around here with plenty of time for AH.
The original post I read yesterday, it has stirred a number of thoughts in my head, so I'll share them in no particular order and with no particular point being made as a whole. Sorry for the rambling nature.
These are MY thoughts and do not reflect the thoughts of Jacques
@AAA Africa Serapa Safaris. So don't consider this as a reply from an outfitter.
1. Supply and Demand
When the former outnumbers the latter, prices go down as we all know. We've all seen it one way or another. The most recent example for the world is oil. Oil peaked somewhere in the neighborhood of $140 a few years ago. But that caused demand to drop as well as supply to increase. And now we're in the $50 range for oil. Various factors have led to increase in supply as well as a reduction in demand.
I think, which is to say I don't know for certain, that a number of new outfitters popped up on the scene in South Africa thinking there was easy money to be made. All you needed was access to some land with critters on it, a place to house all those rich clients, a truck, a PH (of which there was a huge pool) if you weren't one yourself and a friendly demeanor and all that money would just come rolling in. Clients would beat a pathway to your door, so many so that you'd have to turn some away.
Supply UP.
What would have prompted that thinking in the last 8-9 years is beyond my comprehension. In late 2008 the U.S. was facing a banking crisis that had the makings of a repeat of the Great Depression of the 30's. Fortunately a depression of that depth did not come to fruition, but the economic downturn was still nonetheless quite serious. With Obama in office, we came out of that bottom, but it has been a primarily horizontal recovery versus vertical. And the rest of the world has pretty much followed the same path with many countries not keeping up with the slow pace of the economic recovery.
The average U.S. client pulled back from various discretionary spending avenues. This to include African safaris.
Demand DOWN.
So if this is the situation, then what will these new outfitters do? In the end they're businesses. As I mentioned in a thread lately, all businesses are in business to make a profit. If they're not realizing a profit, they shut down. This is true for any business. These new outfitters who likely have a small client base, who lack a reputation in the business are going to struggle. It's not their fault they don't have a larger client base or lack the reputation of longer established outfitters, they're new and that's the way it goes.
So they must drop their prices to spur demand. The problem is so will the others and whether intended or not a race to the bottom ensues. And from what I've seen even established outfitters might join in the race. How and when will this end? Will we like what we're left with?
2. Commodification of the African Hunting Safari
This has been my most concerning issue over the last few years with the price drops. Is the industry turning into a shopping "experience" at Wal Mart? Is the African hunting safari becoming just another vacation to the Bahamas or a trip with the kids to Disneyland?
In other words are we diluting the value of the product in the process of getting that absolute rock bottom priced hunt?
When I say "we" in the above question, I define we as both oufitters/PH's and prospective clients. If the answer to my question above is yes, then "we" as a whole have only ourselves to blame for devaluing the experience. Possibly to the point it's no different in value than the pretend experience which is Disneyland.
Is that what we really want?
3. A Single U.S. Dollar gets you 17 Rand
Remember when this was the case right at a year ago? There were threads devoted to the subject of the high exchange rate. Many were anticipating lower RSA hunt prices, and I'm sure that happened with some outfitters. Some outfitters didn't play the game, with some of those receiving criticism for not doing so.
If you were an outfitter that last year priced a hunt for 2018 based on a 16-17Rand / dollar exchange rate, took a relatively small deposit with the hunt to be paid for when it takes place sometime later this year, I wonder how that's going to work out with the exchange rate now being some 20% or so less at 13Rand/dollar?
4. Why do you want to hunt Africa?
It's not for me to tell anyone why they want to hunt there, nor what they should want. But sometimes it seems like some go there as collectors and not hunters. I say that because it seems like the quicker that big really cool beast can be had with the least amount of trouble, the better. That way they can get back home and get that taxidermy underway ASAP so that we can now show off to all our hunter friends who maybe can't afford Africa or you can say "me too" to those that can, or some other motivation. If this is what it's about, I guess it makes sense that you do it as inexpensively as possible. I really don't get this, it makes no sense to me in my mind, but then I probably don't make much sense to others either.
Again not for me to say what should motivate you, but I do think you've left something on the table that is worth much more.
Have to go play dad......perhaps more ramblings later.