What stocks are you trading today

[Shootist43]

The last time the market took a dive like this was in 2008. I didn't get out a first then rode it down somewhat then sold. The trouble is that I didn't get back in till the money making was over. Now I'm just going to sit tight and wait. I expect that the economy is going to soar in a couple of months and by the end of the year I'll be glad I did.

 

[Chukar]

I've kept my holdings that had as of January 1. The vast majority are boring Vanguard funds.

The last few years I started shift money into bond funds and cash and I'm glad that I did it now.

I've started adding money into the funds slowly and in smallish bites, still keeping some reserves in case that this continues down. Todays S&P 500 was down ~30% from it's high.

I have also started buying some individual stocks that have been hammered. BP, CCL and UMPQ

 

[Wheels]

For a number of years, the worlds central bankers have kept interest rates near zero. This has made near cash assets loose their value. Investors have been forced to chase yields in all types of asset classes. This has caused bubbles to form all over the world in virtually all assets. Bubbles look for pins. It seems the Wuhan virus may have been that pin.

Unless the medical community can do something they have never done before, expect this virus to be around 12-18 months. Next fall and winter will probably be significantly worse than this spring. Will this push the world into a recession?

In bull markets it always pays off to buy on the drop. Trying that in bear markets just causes you to catch the knife over and over again. The question everyone has to ask themselves, are we in a bull market or a bear market?

In 1929 the DOW made it to the high 300's. It didn't recover until the mid 50's. Around 1970, the DOW went over 1,000. It didn't break that high until the early 80's. We have been fortunate that markets have rebounded reasonably quick when there have been large draw downs ever since 87. We have just ridden the longest bull market in history. Is there a reason the market should rebound quick or are we in for a long unwinding prior to achieving a DOW 30,000?

World governments have more debt than they have ever had before. Governments have interest rates at zero which means they have virtually no room to stimulate the economy. Governments have never been in this bad of a position when facing a recession.

Investors have more debt than ever before when facing a recession. This gives them little room to wiggle. Equity evaporates fast when leveraged.

Real Estate has gone through a massive boom. That 500,000 house with 175,000 of equity looks pretty nice in a good market. What happens if the real estate market looses 1/3 of its value and the house becomes an albatross?

The world economy is standing on the abyss. It doesn't take much for it to fall.

I am not trying to tell anyone what to do here. Perhaps your decisions will be home runs. Just be careful and think things through.

 

[YancyW]

Just so no one says I am hiding the bad calls. I bought SPY about 90 seconds before the close today, hoping for a little green tomorrow right out of the gate.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

OPGEN (OPGN) was up 101% today. No, I don't own any......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opgen-provides-curetis-now-offering-113010764.html

 

[YancyW]

OPGEN (OPGN) was up 101% today. No, I don't own any......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opgen-provides-curetis-now-offering-113010764.html

Why in the hell didn't you tell us that yesterday??

 

[Scott CWO]

Once the market is near bottom, if you will have significant 2020 taxes to pay next year at this time due to real estate or other capital gains, selling stocks and securities now to take a loss can offset those other income/gains and save you money by paying lower taxes. The trick is that you must quickly buy another stock or security that is also down so that you can ride it back up. You won’t have to pay taxes on the gain on the new stock until you sell those shares in future years. Taxes are not due or figured until you sell.

 

[Scott CWO]

Stocks of companies like Verizon and Apple will rebound and are solid. Eneregy stocks are getting hammered with $30 oil. Just a few years ago oil was $100. I doubt we will see $100 oil again soon but $30 has to be near the bottom? Chevron and Exxon come to mind.

 

[YancyW]

Stocks of companies like Verizon and Apple will rebound and are solid. Eneregy stocks are getting hammered with $30 oil. Just a few years ago oil was $100. I doubt we will see $100 oil again soon but $30 has to be near the bottom? Chevron and Exxon come to mind.

$30 oil is completely unsustainable, it simply can not be extracted and distributed anywhere in the world for that price anywhere in the world.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

$30 oil is completely unsustainable, it simply can not be extracted and distributed anywhere in the world for that price anywhere in the world.

Saudi can do it. At $30/bbl they can still make money. Everywhere else, little to no investment will occur and natural production decline will bring supply/demand back into balance.

I've worked for an oil major for nearly 40 years. One of the best quotes I heard over the years is:

"I'd rather pay $4/gallon for gas with money from my paycheck, than $1/gallon with money from my unemployment check."

 

[StephenZambia]

Online businesses might thrive on this, they could have issues in their supply chain, but demand is high. Online sales from supermarkets are sky rocketing right now, and Amazon is hiring 100,000 extra employees.
Oil companies will recover, but they have increasing competition from renewable energy suppliers.
https://www.bizjournals.com/columbu...iring-100-000-to-staff-busy-distribution.html

 

[YancyW]

Saudi can do it. At $30/bbl they can still make money. Everywhere else, little to no investment will occur and natural production decline will bring supply/demand back into balance.

I've worked for an oil major for nearly 40 years. One of the best quotes I heard over the years is:

"I'd rather pay $4/gallon for gas with money from my paycheck, than $1/gallon with money from my unemployment check."

Sure, but $30 for an extended period of time is going to sink the Saudis. I don't know if you heard any of the Aramco call yesterday, but it was clear to everyone what a shitshow they are right now. The dividend guarantee is pulling them towards needing very heavy cash flow, but they are trying to compete with Russia for increased market share, which is an incredibly costly endeavor.

 

[YancyW]

Just so no one says I am hiding the bad calls. I bought SPY about 90 seconds before the close today, hoping for a little green tomorrow right out of the gate.

That was a very easy 2.2% return.

 

[johnnyblues]

The last time the market took a dive like this was in 2008. I didn't get out a first then rode it down somewhat then sold. The trouble is that I didn't get back in till the money making was over. Now I'm just going to sit tight and wait. I expect that the economy is going to soar in a couple of months and by the end of the year I'll be glad I did.

Agreed, right now I’m not sleeping well, but my FA says just sit tight. Many feel once this passes the market’s will soar. Damn this sucks!

 

[Uncle Sauce]

Going to be an interesting ride for sure!

 

[Uncle Sauce]

Well, since I'm speculating I bought a little Bitcoin & Ether this morning We'll see how that goes!

 

[BRICKBURN]

$30 oil is completely unsustainable, it simply can not be extracted and distributed anywhere in the world for that price anywhere in the world.

Except Saudi Arabia.

 

[Shootist43]

You are correct Brickburn, now watch how this plays out. Six months to a year from now it will be "He who has the gold (oil) makes the rules." Then the price will go up to a point where other forms of extraction become feasible and the whole cycle will start over again.

 

[YancyW]

Except Saudi Arabia.

That is true from in the technical sense, but I don't believe it is true in practice. Aramco is hung with the guaranteed dividend through 2024ish, they can not sustain this dip in revenue. Having said that, neither can Putin. The cost of buying market share in the global oil market is incredibly high right now.

 

[mikecatt13]

What platform are you guys using to trade?

I've never messed with stocks, been investing in myself with businesses. But it doesnt look like I get to go to vegas anytime soon so thinking maybe I'll allocate some of my "entertainment budget" to play this game a bit