What is the future of the fine firearms market

[Wheels]

I'm curious to know what collectors of high quality firearms feel about the market in general. I am open to buying the right firearm at the right price but have some hesitation.

1. Central Banks have dumped excessive liquidity on the market since 2008. It has sent all collectibles up in value.

2. All markets go through expansion and retrenchment and we have been in a longer than normal bull market in all asset classes.

3. Collectibles like fine time pieces and cars seem to be in a softening market already. Are firearms in a similar situation.

4. Hunters with fine firearms that hunt the world are a dying breed and fewer hunters are in the pipeline to maintain prices.

5. Boomers, the large collector generation are dying off. Are there enough X'ers to fill the gap and maintain prices.


In my mind, this is partially offset with the fact that western economies have so much debt that their only recourse is to print more money and debase their currencies forcing the values of most asset classes to continue to rise.

Is it still a good time to buy or will the market come down causing better opportunities for deals in a few years.

I welcome your thoughts.

 

[375er]

As the number of hunters decreases and younger generations are only interested in black plastic stocks, if at all, I feel like I am part of a dying breed. I only hope at some point in the future someone will give a good home to the pieces I have.

 

[Hogpatrol]

my 2¢: #4 and #5 in your post are the dominant factors in value.

 

[375er]

my 2¢: #4 and #5 in your post are the dominant factors in value.

Agreed!!

 

[375er]

I venture to say "Nitro Express" likely means drive through beer store to most these days.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Unfortunately. I agree, numbers 3, 4 & 5 are the facts we baby boomers will be dealing with.

 

[BeeMaa]

I agree with your points except #3 because timepieces and classic cars are maintaining their value (aka price is going up with inflation). And I don’t believe it will have anything to do with the firearm market.

Fine firearms are an investment and investments can still loose money. Firearms that are used more like tools will continue to be purchased in direct correlation to the number of marksmen that can afford them.

Hunters have been a dying breed for more than a century with fewer in each generation doing so. It should be motivating everyone to do whatever they can to educate and mentor young marksmen into responsible firearm purchases.

 

[Hogpatrol]

I recently had a stamp collection surveyed by an old line philatelic company. It had many fifty to sixty year old mint sheets of U.S. stamps when first class was pennies. I was told "they're still good, use them on your mail. The remainder has no philatelic value". It was interesting looking through a book that was printed in 1940 seeing countries that no longer exist and some new ones like Israel. Disheartening that Big 5 trip had to be put aside.

 

[375er]

I do agree that everything has a "market value", however with changes in generational interests value truly becomes what someone is willing to pay. Unfortunately with fine firearms I see a declining market with a lower percentage of potential buyers.

 

[S Bertram]

I find the market to be strong, with the general exception being doubles. Most doubles, either shotgun or rifle, are down from the peak a little over ten years ago. Exceptions exist in the doublegun market though, Rigby, Fraser and a few other makers have extremely strong demand driving the price up. Classic bolt guns and single shots are bringing VERY strong money for nice examples, rare patents, exceptional condition and rare calibers.

Good stuff is easy to sell for real money, average guns and rifles, not so much.

I personally think the outstanding examples will continue to increase in value, more common offerings are more difficult.

 

[Alistair]

I agree with your points except #3 because timepieces and classic cars are maintaining their value (aka price is going up with inflation). And I don’t believe it will have anything to do with the firearm market.

Fine firearms are an investment and investments can still loose money. Firearms that are used more like tools will continue to be purchased in direct correlation to the number of marksmen that can afford them.

Hunters have been a dying breed for more than a century with fewer in each generation doing so. It should be motivating everyone to do whatever they can to educate and mentor young marksmen into responsible firearm purchases.

I'd disagree strongly on the watch comment. I subscribe to a second hand website dealing in fine pieces. Mostly because they do amazing presentation videos of YouTube.

I’ve been constantly deluged with offers and price reduction notices on all the entry level stuff for the past year or so. Rolex, Omega, Panerai etc. Thousands and thousands of dollars in price reductions vs just 9 months ago on all of them.

The more premium stuff like Patek seem to be holding strong for now, I guess because the average buyer of such things is wealthy enough to be somewhat insulated from recession fears and inflationary pressures in a way that the aspirational middle class who'd be in the market for a second hand Rolex are not.

Link: https://www.watchfinder.com/?gad_so...6UjZP3-_QKLBgCVSJnuCz84n5ufJ_RkRoC7xoQAvD_BwE

Cars are seeing a bit of a pull back as well, if only because they market got incredibly frothy during 22. That I think is less likely to continue because just like the Patek comment, people who are willing and able to drop 6 figures on an old Porsche or whatever are again insulated to a degree.

 

[Alistair]

Continuing with my thought above, I think that really high end firearms will be fairly solid for the time being, but the mid-range stuff in the 5-50k range might see some significant price drops in the coming year or two.

 

[BeeMaa]

I'd disagree strongly on the watch comment. I subscribe to a second hand website dealing in fine pieces. Mostly because they do amazing presentation videos of YouTube.

I’ve been constantly deluged with offers and price reduction notices on all the entry level stuff for the past year or so. Rolex, Omega, Panerai etc. Thousands and thousands of dollars in price reductions vs just 9 months ago on all of them.

The more premium stuff like Patek seem to be holding strong for now, I guess because the average buyer of such things is wealthy enough to be somewhat insulated from recession fears and inflationary pressures in a way that the aspirational middle class who'd be in the market for a second hand Rolex are not.

Link: https://www.watchfinder.com/?gad_so...6UjZP3-_QKLBgCVSJnuCz84n5ufJ_RkRoC7xoQAvD_BwE

Cars are seeing a bit of a pull back as well, if only because they market got incredibly frothy during 22. That I think is less likely to continue because just like the Patek comment, people who are willing and able to drop 6 figures on an old Porsche or whatever are again insulated to a degree.

I understand the used timepiece market is softer than it was a year ago but Rolex, Omega and the like are still getting retail value on the new stuff and above that on the special editions with wait lists topping a year.

 

[rookhawk]

I'm curious to know what collectors of high quality firearms feel about the market in general. I am open to buying the right firearm at the right price but have some hesitation.

1. Central Banks have dumped excessive liquidity on the market since 2008. It has sent all collectibles up in value.

2. All markets go through expansion and retrenchment and we have been in a longer than normal bull market in all asset classes.

3. Collectibles like fine time pieces and cars seem to be in a softening market already. Are firearms in a similar situation.

4. Hunters with fine firearms that hunt the world are a dying breed and fewer hunters are in the pipeline to maintain prices.

5. Boomers, the large collector generation are dying off. Are there enough X'ers to fill the gap and maintain prices.


In my mind, this is partially offset with the fact that western economies have so much debt that their only recourse is to print more money and debase their currencies forcing the values of most asset classes to continue to rise.

Is it still a good time to buy or will the market come down causing better opportunities for deals in a few years.

I welcome your thoughts.

The fine firearm market is very strong right now. It gets stronger in some ways during a dire, disastrous economy if you don't buy lousy guns. (I'll define that later)

In good economies (like the present 10 years), demand drives up the price of new fine guns. This provides further support for the value of secondary market fine guns as their replacement costs continue to climb.

In lousy economies like 2008, there wasn't much in the realm of good guns on the market. It took 2-3 years of a crap economy to put enough financial pressure on the affluent to divest themselves of super premium best guns. In 2012 there were no less than 5-7 Westley Richards take down mausers on the market and at least 10 rigby 275s at a time. But once the economy improved, crap guns and limited supply was all that was available.

Right now for example, the guns that are coming through Holt's auction in London are just awful. Not a lot of stunning examples, just tired guns, oddly configured guns, and common caliber guns.

An excellent investment grade gun defined: Limited supply. Strong demand. Ideally a gun that is still in production to prop up the utility price for the person that isn't a collector but is contemplating a new best gun, but compromises into a vintage best gun of similar configuraiton. That's the best case scenario, when collectors want a gun, and so do non-collectors because its cheaper than buying new. Examples: Purdeys, Hollands, Westleys, Heyms, MacNaughtons, Dicksons, Hartman and Weis, Dakotas.

A lousy gun is a slice-in-time nostalgia gun that caters to a collector longing for their youth. I'm not a greatest generation or baby boomer, (I'm Gen X) so I didn't grow up with Cowboys and Indians fantasies. The elderly collectors are fixed-income pensioners, and they've amassed huge troves of Parkers (and their dreadfully and bizarrely priced Japanese replicas), Colts, old S&Ws, and lugers. Those guns are going to take a bloodbath, they just aren't worth as much or coveted as much by Gen X and Gen Y that have the working disposable incomes to justify such purchases.


But a best gun that has a contemporary demand? Those are going to do great.

Vintage Dakota for $12000 versus an identical parkwest for $17,000+? No brainer.

Vintage Boss 20 bore side by side for $30,000 versus a new one for $150,000? No brainer.

Vintage Grant or Lang for $15,000, versus a remanufactured one from AG&L for $60,000? No brainer.

Vintage Winchester Model 21 for $6000 versus a CSMC reproduction for $20,000? No brainer.

Vintage Westley Richards 318 for $8000-$12,000 versus a new one for $60,000? No brainer.

Vintage 1990s Heym Double Rifle for $15,000-$40,000 versus a new identical one for $28,000-$90,000? No brainer.

Vintage Hartman & Weis magazine rifle for $30,000-$40,000 versus a new one for $75,000? No brainer.

 

[Alistair]

I understand the used timepiece market is softer than it was a year ago but Rolex, Omega and the like are still getting retail value on the new stuff and above that on the special editions with wait lists topping a year.

Fair point. It'll be interesting to see if they can maintain it.

Rolex especially could charge silly prices and be knobs with supply and wait lists because the pieces used to cost more second hand than they did new.

Now that's no longer the case and you can buy a 6 month old piece for the same or less than new and not wait 2 years to get it, that might be rather more appealing...

 

[Rimbaud]

Years ago, one of the boutique research houses on Wall Street put out a graphic illustration of the best performing assets over the past century or so. The best ”investment” was a baseball card (Babe Ruth?), and NYC taxi medallions had a good run, and so did emerging market equities/debt. Hard to know what happens to watches, fine gun values. I thought I would ultimately get great deals on classic books in the era of e-books, and have not had any such luck. Same for my fountain pen addiction. I know guys who are collecting art not so much because they love art but because they love markets that are not regulated by SEC, CFTC, etc., and enjoy trying to control the market. I think every asset has its own season and cycle and those of us who like fine guns should like them for what they are and not for how much you think they will be worth in a decade. If you want to make money off stuff, look for blue-chip stocks with lots of free cash flow and go have fun with fine guns, fine watches, travel, and so forth.

 

[Wheels]

Enjoying all of your thoughts and expertise.

 

[Rimbaud]

Enjoying all of your thoughts and expertise.

Thank you. I‘m happy to be able to contribute just a little bit to people who have taught me so much over the years about pursuits that are so important to me.

 

[shotgungibbs]

I'm 63 years old. I grew up reading Elmer Keith, Jack O'Connor & Skeeter Skelton. I own a handgun that belonged to Skeeter Skelton. I was recently in a higher end firearms store. The 2 gentlemen behind the counter, and working the phones did not have a clue who Skeeter Skelton was. They had never heard of him! I shouldn't have been, but I was shocked!

In another few years, I can see gun shows ending. I sure hope not, but the better firearms dealers/table holders are all passing away. I'm not going to a "black plastic is fantastic" gun show! I love my synthetic stocked hunting rifles, but I love beautifully grained wood on shotguns & rifles too. I'm a revolver guy, and love Colt Single Actions! I love older Smith's & Colt double actions as well.

 

[chashardy]

When I bought my fine shotguns or double rifle or 416 Rigby, I didn't give secondary market much thought--same way I look at art, as I collect contemporary painting and sculpture. I buy to enjoy it myself, not as an investment. If something in my collection happens to appreciate in value over the years, fine. If it doesn't, no worries. I enjoy shooting them anyway.