Soonest/Safest return to South Africa?

Your models are simply not based in reality and are not coming true. Mark my words in the end this will be no worse than H1N1 or even a bad season flu year.
You can't say this is worse than the flu and then on the other hand say that there are millions of asymptomatic people walking around that don't know it! This is what is being thrown around.
Keep in mind they are cooking the books on deaths now and we CAN NO LONGER TRUST ANY GOVERNMENT DATA ON COVID19:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bi...W4Nj3Ua8Dcr3jU59wHya4uxfpwTz42oXXtbS4pMlAOJ10
Well first I will say that we do not know how many asymptomatic infected are out there. We hope that a lot of people have it/have had it an d did not know it, but it risky to make any assumptions about the number. In any event, I see no reason why a large % of unidentified infected and a high mortality rate would be mutually exclusive.
 
..... I’d be happy to have an educated modeling convo, but if I get one more Facebook post or Twitter “citation”...:cry:

So, what is your wife putting on the public record on the subject?
 
I have found the same thing to be true.
I am laughing. :)

Without a press release (also humorous), this morning, 8 April 20, IHME lowered its US COVID19 mortality projection 25% from 81,766 to 60,415. Must be confusing for the average "we're doomed" home modelers.


All that said, I have no idea when anyone is going back to South Africa. Along with positive anecdotal treatment mitigation, there apparently is some evidence that the US African American community is being disproportionately affected. Could be any number of reasons related to the US environment (I don't mean weather), but it is an additional concern to overlay the known challenges faced by the South African government and population.
 
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Besides, people who know more make fewer projections.

I have found the same thing to be true.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect:

Dunning-Kruger.jpg
 
Zimbabwe police officers are allegedly soliciting bribes at coronavirus checkpoints, according to a report in that country’s Herald newspaper on Tuesday. The government has set up the checkpoints to control movement during the country’s virus lockdown.

“Bribery is a serious offense and we do not condone corruption in our rank and file,” national police spokesperson Paul Nyathi said.

He encouraged anyone with knowledge of an officer soliciting a bribe to report the incident to authorities. Nyathi claimed that officials would monitor officers on the ground to discourage such practices.

“All those found on the wrong side of the law will be arrested,” he assured the public.

Zimbabwe police officers have recently been accused of other offenses. Over the weekend, the Herald noted, police reportedly locked farmers out of a marketplace. Some farmers also accused police of taking their money. The incident occurred at Lusaka Market in Highfield, a suburb of Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital.

AP_20098377920862-1024x683.jpg

Zimbabwe riot police patrol the streets near a fruit and vegetable market full of people despite a lockdown in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus, in Harare, Zimbabwe, Tuesday April 7, 2020. (AP Photo/Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi)

Nyathi addressed the concerned farmers on Tuesday. “We urge all aggrieved farmers to come forward and make a police report. However, we are already investigating the case,” he said.

On March 30, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa declared a 21-day “total” lockdown in which people’s movement would be restricted, most shops shuttered, and all flights suspended in an effort to slow the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.



At the time, police had already begun mounting checkpoints in Harare. On routes leading to the city’s central business district, police were reportedly stopping cars and turning away pedestrians without the proper authorization to pass through.

A deeply impoverished and troubled nation, Zimbabwe suffers from rampant corruption. When Zimbabwe’s lockdown was announced, some citizens worried more about losing their access to money and food during the shutdown than they did about contracting the coronavirus.

“It’s better to get coronavirus while looking for money than to sit at home and die from hunger,” said one citizen.

At press time on Tuesday, Zimbabwe had reported 11 infections and 2 deaths from the Chinese coronavirus.
 
Well first I will say that we do not know how many asymptomatic infected are out there. We hope that a lot of people have it/have had it an d did not know it, but it risky to make any assumptions about the number. In any event, I see no reason why a large % of unidentified infected and a high mortality rate would be mutually exclusive.
John because you can’t calculate the death rate without an accurate denominator. We don’t have one. My DR says we will likely wind up at .5% or less. Meaning all is this is hysteria over nothing.
 
Not sure why anyone thought you could trust a politician, gov't entity, etc in the first place, especially the clowns at WHO. You surely can't trust the Chinese about anything. Maybe the doomsdayers can get out of the corner and uncurl from the fetal position shortly.
 
According to data obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.

The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...20-actually-15-average-prior-four-years/
 
The evidence is just starting to come out. And theres a LOT of it. Anyone who thinks the govt and media wont manipulate a crisis for their own benefit is in serious denial.View attachment 341114

Do you honestly believe antibody tests are being performed post mortem on murder victims and then the COD is being reclassified from murder to COVID? There is no possible way you actually believe that is happening.
 
Newsroom - South African Airways
www.flysaa.com › leading-carrier › media-center › media-releases › n...


Period After National Lockdown (17 April and onwards) SAA will resume its domestic flights on 17 April 2020. All passengers who are willing to defer their travel will be expected to comply with conditions set out in the updated customer reservation policy.

Roll dem bones, boys & girls. :whistle:
After 7 pages of bad news maybe a glimmer of good news. I am still holding out that some sort of airline will be able to get me in SA end June this year. I have a date with a lion, croc night critters and whole assortment of PG.

I am not believing all will be normal, just hoping to be able to get there and be healthy. Will gladly eat sudza and what I shoot.

Anyone who thinks all reported by any Gov or media is truth full has no idea of reality. Canadian Gov again just paid our media, how can that possibly equate to non biased reporting??? Smoke, mirrors and BS.

MB
 
President Ramaphosa just announced a further 14 days of lockdown. Hence still 3 weeks to go
 
Newsroom - South African Airways
www.flysaa.com › leading-carrier › media-center › media-releases › n...


Period After National Lockdown (17 April and onwards) SAA will resume its domestic flights on 17 April 2020. All passengers who are willing to defer their travel will be expected to comply with conditions set out in the updated customer reservation policy.

Roll dem bones, boys & girls. :whistle:

Cyril just announced that the LOCK DOWN will be extended for another TWO WEEKS.
SAA is a little ahead of itself me thinks.
 
In all seriousness I can say that Zimbabwe police our taking travel very seriously. I have some antibiotics that I have been waiting on for a week. The truck that they are on has been turned around twice and they have the correct paperwork and have been traveling during the night when things are a little lax. As of 12, April Zimbabwe has had 13 confirmed cases and 3 deaths. We just hope it stays that way!
 

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