Politics

As of now, the U.S will not retaliate against Iran's failed attempts of missile strikes against U.S bases in the middle east.
I was hoping to see a couple dozen Tomahawks on the way to the Iranian Navy ship yards.
 
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skydiver386 said:
Having come from that line of work, I am aware. The problem is that this is almost a worst case scenario for a guerilla warfare sponsored coup.

View attachment 694482
Many of us are old enough to remember these scenes on our tv in 1979. The Shah was reviled and a significant number (this crowd anyway) wanted the Eyatolla to replace him. Currently, the only possible shadow government that could be formed includes direct descendants of the Shah. If the U.S. or it's allies attempt to place our choice for Irans government over the head's of it's people, the results will be 100% predictable.

Problem #2 is that there are no significant armed resistance groups in or outside Iran. Any such group that is formed by U.S. Special Operations assets will be seen for exactly what it is. It will be seen negatively not only by the people of Iran, but the larger Islamic reqion, and most of the rest of the world.

We could go down the list straight out of the FM of the conditions needed for a successful campaign of this type, and most of them would be minimal to non-existent.

In my lifetime, the U.S. has attempted this in Cuba, Vietnam, Nicuragua, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Haiti and the list goes on. Trump campaigned on the promise of keeping America out of forever wars.

Like an addict that is forced into rehab, seldom does anything useful come of it. Until the drug addict decides for themselves that they want change, no change will occur.

The people of Iran will decide their own fate, as they deserve whatever government they choose.

Or as I've heard it said many times, people get exactly the government they deserve.
Click to expand...

Apparently Israel destroyed the main gate and opened the Iranian prison where most of the government dissidents were housed. Word on the street is the people that could stand up a new government were in that prison.
 
Altitude sickness said:
Apparently Israel destroyed the main gate and opened the Iranian prison where most of the government dissidents were housed. Word on the street is the people that could stand up a new government were in that prison.
Click to expand...
That's a start.
 
skydiver386 said:
Having come from that line of work, I am aware. The problem is that this is almost a worst case scenario for a guerilla warfare sponsored coup.

View attachment 694482
Many of us are old enough to remember these scenes on our tv in 1979. The Shah was reviled and a significant number (this crowd anyway) wanted the Eyatolla to replace him. Currently, the only possible shadow government that could be formed includes direct descendants of the Shah. If the U.S. or it's allies attempt to place our choice for Irans government over the head's of it's people, the results will be 100% predictable.

Problem #2 is that there are no significant armed resistance groups in or outside Iran. Any such group that is formed by U.S. Special Operations assets will be seen for exactly what it is. It will be seen negatively not only by the people of Iran, but the larger Islamic reqion, and most of the rest of the world.

We could go down the list straight out of the FM of the conditions needed for a successful campaign of this type, and most of them would be minimal to non-existent.

In my lifetime, the U.S. has attempted this in Cuba, Vietnam, Nicuragua, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Haiti and the list goes on. Trump campaigned on the promise of keeping America out of forever wars.

Like an addict that is forced into rehab, seldom does anything useful come of it. Until the drug addict decides for themselves that they want change, no change will occur.

The people of Iran will decide their own fate, as they deserve whatever government they choose.

Or as I've heard it said many times, people get exactly the government they deserve.
Click to expand...

The window for this type of work closed, it was during Obama’s term when there were Arab Spring uprisings all over Iran. (Yes, I know they are Persians, not Arabs) US and Israel could have taken out the regime and let the revolution solve itself. Too late.
 
Does anyone else think that some of the more moderate leaders inside Iran are now regretting allowing/backing the Oct 7th Hamas attack ?

That was the beginning of the end for them.

All of the proxies are on their heels and feckless
 
Putin might be made right now. As I understand he get some military supply from Iran but that might change now..Could be a gamechanger in Ukraine perhaps?..

Has Putin promised to help Iran now?..
 
rigbymauser said:
Putin might be made right now. As I understand he get some military supply from Iran but that might change now..Could be a gamechanger in Ukraine perhaps?..

Has Putin promised to help Iran now?..
Click to expand...

He's staying quiet. He didn't want this in the first place, according to the information sources. Medvedev came out and criticized the USA. Trump basically told him "No one cares about you, Putin is in charge."
 
skydiver386 said:
Having come from that line of work, I am aware. The problem is that this is almost a worst case scenario for a guerilla warfare sponsored coup.

View attachment 694482
Many of us are old enough to remember these scenes on our tv in 1979. The Shah was reviled and a significant number (this crowd anyway) wanted the Eyatolla to replace him. Currently, the only possible shadow government that could be formed includes direct descendants of the Shah. If the U.S. or it's allies attempt to place our choice for Irans government over the head's of it's people, the results will be 100% predictable.

Problem #2 is that there are no significant armed resistance groups in or outside Iran. Any such group that is formed by U.S. Special Operations assets will be seen for exactly what it is. It will be seen negatively not only by the people of Iran, but the larger Islamic reqion, and most of the rest of the world.

We could go down the list straight out of the FM of the conditions needed for a successful campaign of this type, and most of them would be minimal to non-existent.

In my lifetime, the U.S. has attempted this in Cuba, Vietnam, Nicuragua, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Haiti and the list goes on. Trump campaigned on the promise of keeping America out of forever wars.

Like an addict that is forced into rehab, seldom does anything useful come of it. Until the drug addict decides for themselves that they want change, no change will occur.

The people of Iran will decide their own fate, as they deserve whatever government they choose.

Or as I've heard it said many times, people get exactly the government they deserve.
Click to expand...

I disagree with both points..

I also came from that line of work, and while I was still young (not out of school yet), I also remember 1979 very vividly..

Your points about the Shah and how the people of Iran hated him are spot on.. the only people that supported the Shah at the time of his demise were those that benefited from him economically, politically, etc.. which was a small segment of the Iranian population..

That said, I don't know that the only option for a replacement is the Shahs son (the guy that's been all over the media for the past few months).. that's just the person that's getting the most attention of the US and the Euro media.. there have been several popular uprisings over the last couple of decades in Iran.. I don't know who the leaders of those uprisings are, which ones might have been put in prison or killed or which one might be in exile right now in some other country.. But I have to believe in a country of 90M+ people where it is well known that a significant % of the population doesn't favor the current regime, that there are qualified and/or capable people either in Iran or abroad that our intelligence agencies (as well as Euro agencies and Israeli intelligence, etc) have identified as potentials to put some weight and influence behind..

I'll concede to the first part of your problem #2.. armed resistance groups I am sure are very small if they exist at all... but, as you are well aware, part of the SF mission is to arm and train resistance groups.. how that happens and the timelines involved probably isn't a great discussion for an online forum that's open to the public..

I'll also concede that the list of countries provided where SF has executed UW is accurate, and that the success rate has been somewhere between limited and negligible.. but again, as you also know, SF is a force multiplier.. its actions alone don't win wars.. there has to be conventional support, political support, etc.. which I would argue is where we have failed in every one of those countries.. if you isolate the SF UW (or FID in some cases) mission and only look at what the intended results of UW or FID alone were and whether or not those results were achieved, the overwhelming majority of those missions were highly successful.. the reasons for the overarching conflicts either being lost or providing less than desirable results for the most part ends up falling on capitol hill and the inner couple of rings of the pentagon.. not on the SF mission itself..

Your point on the Islamic world I think is flawed though.. Most of the levant and gulf states have more of a conflict with Iran than they do with Israel these days.. a notable exception has been Qatar.. but Qatar has been playing a unique game as they vie very hard to be the leading nation among Sunni followers and compete with the Saudis for that role/title while at the same time try to maintain a balance with Shia groups supported by Iran in the region (Hezbollah, Hamas, etc).. There is a reason no Arab state has taken any action outside of a few minor statements made by just a handful of people over anything Israel or the US has done so far.. they know the region is far more secure right now than it was just a couple of weeks ago.. Iran at some point has either directly attacked or sponsored attacks through their proxies on just about every country in the region.. Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, etc.. have all had to deal with Iranian problems for a very long while and have largely grown tired of it..

If we're talking about other predominantly Muslim countries (like Indonesia for example) the overwhelming majority of the populations in those countries are Sunni.. while they don't have the same problems with the Iranians that the Arab states do.. they arent really aligned with Iranian religious or political doctrine and don't care much at all about the mullahs of Iran.. (99% of Indonesian Muslims are Sunni.. roughly 85% of Pakistani Muslims are Sunni.. etc etc... )..

I do agree with you on forever wars.. its time for the US (IMO) to drop that line of work.. but.. at the same time Im all for the US protecting its local, regional, and global strategic interests.. if that means bombing Iran into the stone age.. or dropping in a company of rangers and a couple of CAG troops to eliminate certain threats and then pulling out and letting the Iranians figure out what to do about it.. or pretty much any other scenario anyone can come up with that doesn't have us exposing large number of forces over several years periods of time.. I support that line of thinking..

I'd much rather expose a handful of pilots, and a handful of ground troops and disrupt the Iranians capabilities to support global terror networks and pursue nuclear munitions any way we can make that happen.. than expose a couple of armored divisions and a couple of infantry divisions for the next 6-10 years while try to establish a new government and a new way of thinking for them..
 
mdwest said:
I disagree with both points..

I also came from that line of work, and while I was still young (not out of school yet), I also remember 1979 very vividly..

Your points about the Shah and how the people of Iran hated him are spot on.. the only people that supported the Shah at the time of his demise were those that benefited from him economically, politically, etc.. which was a small segment of the Iranian population..

That said, I don't know that the only option for a replacement is the Shahs son (the guy that's been all over the media for the past few months).. that's just the person that's getting the most attention of the US and the Euro media.. there have been several popular uprisings over the last couple of decades in Iran.. I don't know who the leaders of those uprisings are, which ones might have been put in prison or killed or which one might be in exile right now in some other country.. But I have to believe in a country of 90M+ people where it is well known that a significant % of the population doesn't favor the current regime, that there are qualified and/or capable people either in Iran or abroad that our intelligence agencies (as well as Euro agencies and Israeli intelligence, etc) have identified as potentials to put some weight and influence behind..

I'll concede to the first part of your problem #2.. armed resistance groups I am sure are very small if they exist at all... but, as you are well aware, part of the SF mission is to arm and train resistance groups.. how that happens and the timelines involved probably isn't a great discussion for an online forum that's open to the public..

I'll also concede that the list of countries provided where SF has executed UW is accurate, and that the success rate has been somewhere between limited and negligible.. but again, as you also know, SF is a force multiplier.. its actions alone don't win wars.. there has to be conventional support, political support, etc.. which I would argue is where we have failed in every one of those countries.. if you isolate the SF UW (or FID in some cases) mission and only look at what the intended results of UW or FID alone were and whether or not those results were achieved, the overwhelming majority of those missions were highly successful.. the reasons for the overarching conflicts either being lost or providing less than desirable results for the most part ends up falling on capitol hill and the inner couple of rings of the pentagon.. not on the SF mission itself..

Your point on the Islamic world I think is flawed though.. Most of the levant and gulf states have more of a conflict with Iran than they do with Israel these days.. a notable exception has been Qatar.. but Qatar has been playing a unique game as they vie very hard to be the leading nation among Sunni followers and compete with the Saudis for that role/title while at the same time try to maintain a balance with Shia groups supported by Iran in the region (Hezbollah, Hamas, etc).. There is a reason no Arab state has taken any action outside of a few minor statements made by just a handful of people over anything Israel or the US has done so far.. they know the region is far more secure right now than it was just a couple of weeks ago.. Iran at some point has either directly attacked or sponsored attacks through their proxies on just about every country in the region.. Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, etc.. have all had to deal with Iranian problems for a very long while and have largely grown tired of it..

If we're talking about other predominantly Muslim countries (like Indonesia for example) the overwhelming majority of the populations in those countries are Sunni.. while they don't have the same problems with the Iranians that the Arab states do.. they arent really aligned with Iranian religious or political doctrine and don't care much at all about the mullahs of Iran.. (99% of Indonesian Muslims are Sunni.. roughly 85% of Pakistani Muslims are Sunni.. etc etc... )..

I do agree with you on forever wars.. its time for the US (IMO) to drop that line of work.. but.. at the same time Im all for the US protecting its local, regional, and global strategic interests.. if that means bombing Iran into the stone age.. or dropping in a company of rangers and a couple of CAG troops to eliminate certain threats and then pulling out and letting the Iranians figure out what to do about it.. or pretty much any other scenario anyone can come up with that doesn't have us exposing large number of forces over several years periods of time.. I support that line of thinking..

I'd much rather expose a handful of pilots, and a handful of ground troops and disrupt the Iranians capabilities to support global terror networks and pursue nuclear munitions any way we can make that happen.. than expose a couple of armored divisions and a couple of infantry divisions for the next 6-10 years while try to establish a new government and a new way of thinking for them..
Click to expand...
Your last 2 paragraphs are bang on.

If the United Sates, or our direct interest is threatened, we kick them in the crotch as hard as we can about 20-30 times, then as we get on the chopper to exfil, we leave a few notes saying "Don't make us come back here again, it'll be way worse next time."
 
Gen.Keane made an interesting comment on Kudlow. He said that agents of Iran's Secret Police are being "killed". He didn't say by whom, but if the secret police was neutralized it would reduce the fear of citizens to protest against the government, at least to discuss the problem in small groups.
 
Vintageguy said:
Do we dare hope a lesson has been learned? I think we have settled the matter on who might come to the aid of Iran. The Arabs don’t like them and their allies proved to be noncommittal.
Click to expand...

Sadly I doubt it… what’s been purchased is an 8-10 year reprieve I believe..

Hopefully the current supreme leader will be dead by the time they are combat effective again and their economy has recovered enough to start pursuing nukes again… and the next one won’t be quite as inclined to screw around…

Only time will tell..
 
Vintageguy said:
Do we dare hope a lesson has been learned? I think we have settled the matter on who might come to the aid of Iran. The Arabs don’t like them and their allies proved to be noncommittal.
Click to expand...
I was hoping for a complete and utter annihilation of the current regime and the Iranian nuclear program.
All this does is put a short term stop gap on it, and Iran will no doubt rear its nuclear head in the future.
The talking heads are reporting that Iran has as much as 440kg of uranium enriched to 60% hiding somewhere. All they have to do is get some centrifuges in operation to achieve their end game.
 
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I recall Gaddafi trying to unify the muslim world due to the defeat and humiliation of the Six Days War. This current action is a new humiliation. Our task will be to snuff any renewed hostilities until the radicals learn by experience that there is a terrible price to be paid.
Speaking of price to be paid--how about finding a way to force Iran to pay for our military costs in this little course correction. They pay a price beyond a political one and maybe they learn faster?

Will Iran and others formerly hostile nations take the high road of peace and prosperity for their people by abandoning radical ideologies? I'm sure Trump will try to make them a deal if they do, but I won't hold my breath.
 
Red Leg said:
Probably not assuming the enriched Uranium was in one of the underground facilities. That represents a lot of shielding even if the protective containers were damaged.

It is worth pointing out that unless the storage containers were in the immediate vicinity of the actual blast, it is still there. Recovery would represent a major effort, and Iran would have to rebuild a centrifuge array to eventually turn it into weapons grade material.
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Thanks @Red Leg for answering that. Was going to ask this myself. Do you think that the trucks that were in a satellite image a few days ago moved the stuff? Hope it’s not headed for a door handle near me(n)
With luck it buried.
 
Has the Yemen threat dropped off the radar now that Iran has used up a load of there rockets? Not sure how you disband a reported 300,000 rebel army.
 
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