Politics

[steve white]

I would HOPE that Trump would spare us any situations/photos of American sailors on their knees with their hands over their heads, in the manner in which we were humiliated by the Iranians under another administration!

 

[steve white]

The PPL is about to make an announcement

PPL ??

Parliamentary Pond Life

They are what pretends to be a Gov here in the UK

They are owned by the Muslim vote

They neither speak for, nor care about British Citizens

But...will Brits be "nice" and play by the rules until the rules are changed to Sharia and you are placed under Dhimmi status? It will be your "last hour"

 

[HookMeUpII]

I love the Navy, but let's not get to carried away.

50nm wide strait + the world's largest navy?

Depends how much restraint we are willing to show.

 

[Altitude sickness]

I would hope this current DOD would not allow Iranian Mine warfare near the Straits. We learned a hard lesson the last time.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Media is reporting that Iran DID relocate it's supply of enriched uranium.

We all know how wonderfully accurate the media is. ....

I mean, wouldn't that be common sense? The media has been plastering Fordow everywhere for the last week. If Iran didn't move at least as much of the enriched uranium as they could, they would be beyond stupid.

They probably moved a lot. The real question is: Is it enough to still make a decent dirty bomb? That's for the world's intelligence agencies to work out.

I never liked this idea 100% in the first place. I don't believe Iran at all is a friend of anyone but Iran and their radical supporters. However, this plan was less than perfect. Might have been the best one out there in terms of direct action.

Where we go from here is anyone's guess.

All I can say is we all better hope the world intelligence agencies were/are on the ball with this.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Hookmeup, There are very few perfect operations

Don’t fall into the argument of the left.

Their fallback argument now is that since Israel and the US struck Iran. they will be in a full out race to get a Nuke now. Obama and Biden‘s nuke deal with Iran actually allowed them to have nuke weapons by 2030.

Any future strikes by Iran will be blamed on the Trump regime for attacking Iran. The left forgets about the last 40 years of them killing our citizens.

 

[TOBY458]

This is the dumbest and most annoying thread on this website, it should be removed.

It definitely causes a lot of division between people who would otherwise get along just fine. But it’s also very entertaining!

 

[rookhawk]

I think @Red Leg earlier post is accurate.

Only about 10% of Chinese oil is Iranian, but 45% of their total oil imports come through the straights of hormuz (they're also purchasing oil from various gulf states that ship to them via this route).

So they have a couple of problems right now.. how do they replace that 10% (my understanding is the Israelis hit their ports pretty hard as well as some of the O&G infrastructure.. and Trump is now threatening to knock out their entire O&G infrastructure as well as their power grid (in addition to other things))..

and.. how do they keep the straight of hormuz from getting shut down or inaccessible due to conflict (Irans navy isn't exactly world class.. but they possess a ton of small craft that have historically operated successfully in hormuz.. if they choose to try to engage US naval assets (or anyone else's) its almost a guarantee that we'll shut down the straits to all commercial traffic and engage anything/everything we see as a threat if its not flagged US or a very close ally..

All this talk of the Strait of Hormuz related to oil reminded me to bring up another darned-near equally important topic. The Iranians are the 4th largest exporter of ammonia and urea and that rides right out of the Strait of Hormuz as well. Lower global crop yields or increased food prices is a real thing. While we are not a buyer of Iran's fertilizer due to logistical inefficiency, it is a global market and we will be competing with other buyers for the remaining inventories.

Corn is under $4 a bushel right now but mining of the Strait or disruptive warfare with Iran could cause gigantic global ripples in the cost of everything from bacon to beef, taco shells to tofu.

A few percentage point drop in supply can cause a hundred fold increase in price.

 

[Brent in Az]

Unconfirmed reports of explosions at U.S airbases in Qatar and Iraq.

Cruise missiles will be warming up in the Navy bullpen.......

 

[skydiver386]

The best possible way forward for Iran is a popular uprising, but I see almost no evidence of anything like this on the horizon.

If anyone but the people of Iran topple it's present regime, it will be viewed as outside meddling and oppression.

Until the people themselves have had a belly full, and decide the answer is to throw out every radical in their government, for us to talk about regime change is a waste of time.

 

[skydiver386]

Things that make ya go hmmmmm.

Could Israeli C-130s Drop GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Bunker Busters?

B-2s are the only aircraft that can employ MOPs to get at Iran's deepest facilities, but C-130s may be a viable option with a similar weapon.

www.twz.com

 

[Brent in Az]

Khamenei must have decided to take the room temperature challenge

 

[bowjijohn]

But...will Brits be "nice" and play by the rules until the rules are changed to Sharia and you are placed under Dhimmi status? It will be your "last hour"

Therein lies the rub

Niceness is wearing thin

 

[mdwest]

The best possible way forward for Iran is a popular uprising, but I see almost no evidence of anything like this on the horizon.

If anyone but the people of Iran topple it's present regime, it will be viewed as outside meddling and oppression.

Until the people themselves have had a belly full, and decide the answer is to throw out every radical in their government, for us to talk about regime change is a waste of time.

bread and butter work for 5th Group and certain units within OGA..

if the Iranians keep screwing around flinging missiles at US assets in the region, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find out a short time from now that there are partisan militias forming inside Iran that have mysteriously gotten arms and intelligence from somewhere that are now conducting sabotage operations all over Iran..

 

[Betterinthebush]

Lord, on my knees, I pray this is accurate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/us-iran-nuclear-fordo-mullin-intelligence.html

 

[Hunt anything]

So far to me the Iranian response has been what the did after Solomoni was killed a few years ago. Lob some cruise missiles at our bases to save face.

I think we had to act but I hope Trump turns it back over to the Israelis and doesn’t take the bait.

 

[HookMeUpII]

bread and butter work for 5th Group and certain units within OGA..

if the Iranians keep screwing around flinging missiles at US assets in the region, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find out a short time from now that there are partisan militias forming inside Iran that have mysteriously gotten arms and intelligence from somewhere that are now conducting sabotage operations all over Iran..

The "Syria Model"....

Which would be ideal.

 

[HookMeUpII]

So far to me the Iranian response has been what the did after Solomoni was killed a few years ago. Lob some cruise missiles at our bases to save face.

I think we had to act but I hope Trump turns it back over to the Israelis and doesn’t take the bait.

The Strait of Hormuz is a bigger issue, honestly. I am beginning to think you're right.

 

[Hunt anything]

The Strait of Hormuz is a bigger issue, honestly. I am beginning to think you're right.

I believe that will fall pretty much on the US Navy.

I for one think we lost our best opportunity to deal with Iran and their lackies was way back in the early 80’s after the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon where I lost some high school classmates.

 

[skydiver386]

bread and butter work for 5th Group and certain units within OGA..

if the Iranians keep screwing around flinging missiles at US assets in the region, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find out a short time from now that there are partisan militias forming inside Iran that have mysteriously gotten arms and intelligence from somewhere that are now conducting sabotage operations all over Iran..

Having come from that line of work, I am aware. The problem is that this is almost a worst case scenario for a guerilla warfare sponsored coup.

Many of us are old enough to remember these scenes on our tv in 1979. The Shah was reviled and a significant number (this crowd anyway) wanted the Eyatolla to replace him. Currently, the only possible shadow government that could be formed includes direct descendants of the Shah. If the U.S. or it's allies attempt to place our choice for Irans government over the head's of it's people, the results will be 100% predictable.

Problem #2 is that there are no significant armed resistance groups in or outside Iran. Any such group that is formed by U.S. Special Operations assets will be seen for exactly what it is. It will be seen negatively not only by the people of Iran, but the larger Islamic reqion, and most of the rest of the world.

We could go down the list straight out of the FM of the conditions needed for a successful campaign of this type, and most of them would be minimal to non-existent.

In my lifetime, the U.S. has attempted this in Cuba, Vietnam, Nicuragua, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Haiti and the list goes on. Trump campaigned on the promise of keeping America out of forever wars.

Like an addict that is forced into rehab, seldom does anything useful come of it. Until the drug addict decides for themselves that they want change, no change will occur.

The people of Iran will decide their own fate, as they deserve whatever government they choose.

Or as I've heard it said many times, people get exactly the government they deserve.