Politics

[Pondoro]

Get ready for the rodeo ... first ride will be oil..

 

[Red Leg]

Without boots on the ground is there anyway to prove that the enrichment program was destroyed?
Would this strike release a lot of radiation?

Probably not assuming the enriched Uranium was in one of the underground facilities. That represents a lot of shielding even if the protective containers were damaged.

It is worth pointing out that unless the storage containers were in the immediate vicinity of the actual blast, it is still there. Recovery would represent a major effort, and Iran would have to rebuild a centrifuge array to eventually turn it into weapons grade material.

 

[Betterinthebush]

Praise Jesus and pass the ammunition.

Armed gunman shot dead after opening fire at Sunday church service

Armed suspect shot dead by church security at Crosspointe Church in Wayne, Michigan, injuring one person. FBI monitoring the attack.

www.foxnews.com

 

[PCC600]

Checked my slide rule...you are correct.

I used my abacus and confirm your calculation is correct

 

[WAB]

I used my abacus and confirm your calculation is correct

True story, traveling in rural Ukraine, small children man the till in local stores. They use an abacus to calculate your bill and change due, and they are typically quite good at it.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Get ready for the rodeo ... first ride will be oil..

Correct, the Strait of Hormuz will be closely watched. Thankfully, the US Navy, along with a few other countries, will keep it open.

 

[Hillbilly Marine]

This is the dumbest and most annoying thread on this website, it should be removed.

Yes, and it also some of the most informative and often amusing thread here.

 

[Hunt anything]

Correct, the Strait of Hormuz will be closely watched. Thankfully, the US Navy, along with a few other countries, will keep it open.

Since the Chinese get the bulk of their oil from Iran through the straits, I’ve heard 50%. Wouldn’t it be to their advantage to keep it open?

 

[HookMeUpII]

Correct, the Strait of Hormuz will be closely watched. Thankfully, the US Navy, along with a few other countries, will keep it open.

Everyone is focused on our air superiority in terms of B2 bombers, heavy bunker busting ordinance, etc.

This going to get interesting with Hormuz. People forget that our navy is hands down the best in world. Better by a larger margin than the air force, conventional ground troops, etc.

 

[mdwest]

Since the Chinese get the bulk of their oil from Iran through the straits, I’ve heard 50%. Wouldn’t it be to their advantage to keep it open?

Only about 10% of Chinas oil comes from Iran… but that’s still a very significant amount that’s not easily recouped from other countries… it’s about 1.1M barrels a day (China imports just over 11M barrels a day in total)…

Rough 20% of their oil comes from Russia.. now that Europe is buying less Russian oil, my guess is the Chinese try to leverage the Russians for a 50% increase and make up their gap there… although I don’t know that the Chinese really want to rely on 30% of their need from one strategic partner… that’s risky..

If they do lean on the Russians, that might make for a cold winter in Germany… the Germans have been the most reluctant to cut off Russian oil and gas.. while they’ve finally reduced their imports from Russia a good bit and are now more reliant on US and Saudi oil than before, they still depend on Russia for a piece of their requirements... if the Russians cut them off as opposed to them cutting the Russian off, they’re going to need a plan for replacing the Russian volume…

 

[Hunt anything]

Only about 10% of Chinas oil comes from Iran… but that’s still a very significant amount that’s not easily recouped from other countries… it’s about 1.1M barrels a day (China imports just over 11M barrels a day in total)…

Rough 20% of their oil comes from Russia.. now that Europe is buying less Russian oil, my guess is the Chinese try to leverage the Russians for a 50% increase and make up their gap there… although I don’t know that the Chinese really want to rely on 30% of their need from one strategic partner… that’s risky..

If they do lean on the Russians, that might make for a cold winter in Germany… the Germans have been the most reluctant to cut off Russian oil and gas.. while they’ve finally reduced their imports from Russia a good bit and are now more reliant on US and Saudi oil than before, they still depend on Russia for a piece of their requirements... if the Russians cut them off as opposed to them cutting the Russian off, they’re going to need a plan for replacing the Russian volume…

Thanks, I may have heard it wrong. Does 50% of the Iranian oil go to China.

 

[Brent in Az]

Media is reporting that Iran DID relocate it's supply of enriched uranium.

We all know how wonderfully accurate the media is. ....

 

[Red Leg]

Everyone is focused on our air superiority in terms of B2 bombers, heavy bunker busting ordinance, etc.

This going to get interesting with Hormuz. People forget that our navy is hands down the best in world. Better by a larger margin than the air force, conventional ground troops, etc.

I love the Navy, but let's not get to carried away.

 

[Red Leg]

Only about 10% of Chinas oil comes from Iran… but that’s still a very significant amount that’s not easily recouped from other countries… it’s about 1.1M barrels a day (China imports just over 11M barrels a day in total)…

Rough 20% of their oil comes from Russia.. now that Europe is buying less Russian oil, my guess is the Chinese try to leverage the Russians for a 50% increase and make up their gap there… although I don’t know that the Chinese really want to rely on 30% of their need from one strategic partner… that’s risky..

If they do lean on the Russians, that might make for a cold winter in Germany… the Germans have been the most reluctant to cut off Russian oil and gas.. while they’ve finally reduced their imports from Russia a good bit and are now more reliant on US and Saudi oil than before, they still depend on Russia for a piece of their requirements... if the Russians cut them off as opposed to them cutting the Russian off, they’re going to need a plan for replacing the Russian volume…

Since the Chinese get the bulk of their oil from Iran through the straits, I’ve heard 50%. Wouldn’t it be to their advantage to keep it open?

You are both correct. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, approximately 45% of China's imported oil transits Hormuz. They buy from all the oil producing Gulf States as well as Iran (roughly 10%). Blocking the strait would not be a welcome course of action from China's perspective.

 

[mdwest]

Thanks, I may have heard it wrong. Does 50% of the Iranian oil go to China.

I think @Red Leg earlier post is accurate.

Only about 10% of Chinese oil is Iranian, but 45% of their total oil imports come through the straights of hormuz (they're also purchasing oil from various gulf states that ship to them via this route).

So they have a couple of problems right now.. how do they replace that 10% (my understanding is the Israelis hit their ports pretty hard as well as some of the O&G infrastructure.. and Trump is now threatening to knock out their entire O&G infrastructure as well as their power grid (in addition to other things))..

and.. how do they keep the straight of hormuz from getting shut down or inaccessible due to conflict (Irans navy isn't exactly world class.. but they possess a ton of small craft that have historically operated successfully in hormuz.. if they choose to try to engage US naval assets (or anyone else's) its almost a guarantee that we'll shut down the straits to all commercial traffic and engage anything/everything we see as a threat if its not flagged US or a very close ally..

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[WAB]

I think @Red Leg earlier post is accurate.

Only about 10% of Chinese oil is Iranian, but 45% of their total oil imports come through the straights of hormuz (they're also purchasing oil from various gulf states that ship to them via this route).

So they have a couple of problems right now.. how do they replace that 10% (my understanding is the Israelis hit their ports pretty hard as well as some of the O&G infrastructure.. and Trump is now threatening to knock out their entire O&G infrastructure as well as their power grid (in addition to other things))..

and.. how do they keep the straight of hormuz from getting shut down or inaccessible due to conflict (Irans navy isn't exactly world class.. but they possess a ton of small craft that have historically operated successfully in hormuz.. if they choose to try to engage US naval assets (or anyone else's) its almost a guarantee that we'll shut down the straits to all commercial traffic and engage anything/everything we see as a threat if its not flagged US or a very close ally..

My guess is that the Iranians can only block the straight if we allow them to. Many years ago I was contracting oil through the straight while Iran was trying to block it. Our navy did not allow them to, with rather spectacular results on one Iranian gunboat.

 

[bowjijohn]

My guess is that the Iranians can only block the straight if we allow them to. Many years ago I was contracting oil through the straight while Iran was trying to block it. Our navy did not allow them to, with rather spectacular results on one Iranian gunboat.

I thought it more likely that they would mine it

 

[bowjijohn]

The PPL is about to make an announcement

PPL ??

Parliamentary Pond Life

They are what pretends to be a Gov here in the UK

They are owned by the Muslim vote

They neither speak for, nor care about British Citizens

 

[mdwest]

My guess is that the Iranians can only block the straight if we allow them to. Many years ago I was contracting oil through the straight while Iran was trying to block it. Our navy did not allow them to, with rather spectacular results on one Iranian gunboat.

I completely agree..

What I was wondering was whether or not the Iranians create a situation that causes the US to block the straights for a period of time... (i.e. start flooding the straights with their small attack craft, creating a threat to US warships and commercial traffic, etc)..

That could cause pretty substantial issues/concerns for the Chinese..

Although admittedly that would also cause a concern for Europe as well since they are getting a significant amount of their oil from Kuwait, a smaller but still relative amount out of Iraq, and the Saudi oil fields in the east of KSA would also be impacted as well..