Looping back to the Iran topic for a moment.
I can't help but think that this is an excellent case study on the importance of US 'soft power', and why it matters.
The US wants to stop Iran from being a problem.
The US has some military options to do so, but as I dug into in post #31,243 in this thread, I don't think a full on military solution (i.e boots on the ground, occupation, 'winning conventionally') is really viable. Capability wise, it certainly is, but in terms of getting a good result, getting the support to do it politically, from a cost/benefit assessment, it is not.
So, you pivot to 'softer' means.
The 'least soft power' option that is realistically on the table, is military support of Israel. Intelligence assets, training, logistics support, donation of materiel, possibly strategic level support functions (e.g B2s), maybe air space interdiction or anti-missile operations (i.e a carrier group), possibly a naval embargo.
I think at least a little bit of that 'solve' will be used, depending on how Iran reacts in the coming weeks. But it's an expensive option, it increases tensions, and it's potentially a costly one from a casualties perspective as well. So it's not likely to be the first or only resort.
Another option to consider is to to degrade Iranian military supply chains, something that the US has actually, despite the efforts of the current administration, done already.
How so? Well, here's a summary from our friendly Robot overlords on Iran's import partners:
Iran primarily acquires weapons from Russia, China, and North Korea, while also developing its own domestic military industry. Historically, the United States was a major supplier, but that changed after the Iranian Revolution. Iran has also been known to export some military equipment, including to Syria and Sudan.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
- China:
China is another major supplier of weapons and military technology to Iran, including platforms and dual-use technologies.
- North Korea:
North Korea has also been a source of arms and related technology for Iran.
- Domestic Industry:
Iran has invested heavily in developing its own domestic military industry, producing tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles, fighter jets, and submarines.
- Historical US Role:
Before the 1979 revolution, the US was a major arms supplier to Iran.
- Other Suppliers:
While not as prominent as the main three, Iran has also sourced weapons from other countries, including Brazil.
Russia and North Korea aren't exactly in a position to sell a lot of weapons to Iran right now. Can't imagine why...
China probably still is, but they now know that the US and Europe are willing to respond to these situations, so it's probably 'less appealing' for them to get too stuck in either. If it's not going to lead to a 'win', but instead just be a massive proxy war with NATO, maybe you sit it out. There's historical precedent for that idea for sure.
What else can the US do? Well, now you're firmly into pure soft power options.
Economic sanctions and embargoes are always something to consider. But the US has very little influence 'alone'; the US doesn't export much to Iran in the first place. To really give that idea teeth, they need to rope in some allies.
@steve white mentioned food supplies as an option. It's a good insight. Iran doesn't have sufficient internal production there, and a war where your troops and your populace can't eat... is a short war.
So who needs to be 'on board' to meaningfully impact Iranian food supplies?
Let's ask our friends at Skynet again:
Iran is a significant importer of food products, with various countries supplying different types of food. The top countries exporting food products to Iran include the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and the Netherlands. Additionally, countries like China, India, and Germany also contribute to Iran's food imports.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Major Exporters to Iran:
- United Arab Emirates: The UAE is a prominent trading partner for Iran, and it exports a variety of agricultural products including pistachios, saffron, dried fruits, fruits, vegetables, fish, and seafood according to فودکس ایران.
- Turkey: Turkey is a major exporter of fresh fruits and vegetables, dried fruits and nuts, olive oil, legumes and pulses, processed foods, and bakery and confectionery products according to ebiexport.com.
- Netherlands: The Netherlands is known for exporting dairy products, meat, and vegetables.
- China: China is a significant source of food imports for Iran.
- India: India is a key supplier of rice and tea to Iran according to IranPartner.
- Germany: Germany exports dairy products, meat, and confectionery items to Iran.
Other notable exporters:
- Brazil: Brazil exports soybeans, sugar, coffee, and beef to Iran.
- Switzerland: Switzerland is also among the countries that export food products to Iran.
- Austria: Austria is a notable exporter of agricultural products to Iran.
Merchandise trade and tariff data for Iran, Islamic Rep. (IRN) Food Products import from all countries (trading partner) including Trade Value, Product Share, MFN and Effectively applied tariffs, count of duty free and dutiable products for 2022
wits.worldbank.org
Getting the UAE on board is the biggest win (roughly 50% of food exports), but the second biggest win is the EU and the countries in its sphere of influence. Germany, The Netherlands, Austria are all in the EU, Turkey is an EU candidate presently, Switzerland has trade links.
Can't persuade those two partners? Your embargo is meaningless.
NATO is suddenly a useful partner. Relations with the EU suddenly become important. If you want to bring India in on that idea then influence with the commonwealth nations becomes important.
Funny how those second and third order consequences can come back around, ain't it?
