Politics

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Interesting...

speculation was the markets would take a huge dump today based on the tariffs going live..

the opposite is true... the Dow is up 235 points, S&P is up 38, and NASDAQ is up 151..

Trump waited to announce the tariffs until end of market , tomorrow will tell the tail

 

[mdwest]

7000= the difference in per capita spending if you take the numbers used to find the trade deficit. It’s not end consumers shopping at wall mart.

The trade deficit is currently 63.3 billion dollars

Canada exports 349.4 billion dollars from the U.S.
the U.S. exports 412.7 billion from Canada
The population of Canada is 40 million
The population of the u.s. is 340 million

340b/40m=8750
414b/340m=1250
8750-1250= 7500 (the difference in per capita spending) which is encompassing all of the industries you sighted.

ok.. assuming those numbers are correct (I have no reason to dispute them).. I still maintain its a red herring..

it tells us that Canadians like buying American stuff.. and Americans like buying Canadian stuff.. and per capita Canadians buy more American stuff than Americans buy Canadian stuff..

that is completely irrelevant to once Americans stop buying Canadian stuff because costs have increased beyond what Americans are willing to pay, who is Canada going to sell that stuff to? and what happens to those industries and what is the impact to the national economy?

vs

when Canadians stop buying American stuff (sounds like that may be happening regardless of tariffs), who is the US going to sell that surplus stuff to? what what happens to those industries in the US and what is the impact to the national economy?


No one is going to say that tariffs wont cause some degree of cost increase to Americans and that there will be some short term pain (Trump just said there will be some short term pain less than 5 minutes ago in his announcement about the tariffs)..

But his counter is that trillions of dollars have already been committed to by international businesses that are going to move their manufacturing to the US, that they're going to invest in the US, etc.. in order to avoid tariffs.. which will create tens of thousands of jobs and improve the US economy long term..

Whereas Canada has about $54B in foreign investment commitments.. and most of those are not promises to build or invest in industry.. they are commitments to purchase Canadian securities..

End sum is the US is clearly prepared to endure some pain, and acknowledges there is some risk...

but the risk and the pain others are going to feel are substantially greater.. and global businesses are recognizing that (despite Canadian govt, European governments, etc jumping up and down and rasing hell about it) and throwing trillions into the US economy to avoid tariffs (the same reason our defense companies have invested in businesses inside Canada, etc.. to avoid Canadian tariffs)..

 

[mdwest]

Still listening to the announcement..

HUGE moves that will directly impact the US automotive industry.. specifically the concern about US vehicles and parts made in Canada and Mexico that are then imported into the US..

Not only is he encouraging those companies to "come home" and stop building in CA and MX and build in the US to avoid the tariff.. he is offering interest rate reductions on vehicles built in the US..

All of that said, the announcement was MUCH more focused and targeted toward asian markets (China, India, Japan, Taiwan, etc) than it was north American markets..

The 32% tariff on all taiwan products is the one Im most curious about.. since that's where most of the worlds chips come from... that's going to send the computer industry into a panic..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

ok.. assuming those numbers are correct (I have no reason to dispute them).. I still maintain its a red herring..

it tells us that Canadians like buying American stuff.. and Americans like buying Canadian stuff.. and per capita Canadians buy more American stuff than Americans buy Canadian stuff..

that is completely irrelevant to once Americans stop buying Canadian stuff because costs have increased beyond what Americans are willing to pay, who is Canada going to sell that stuff to? and what happens to those industries and what is the impact to the national economy?

vs

when Canadians stop buying American stuff (sounds like that may be happening regardless of tariffs), who is the US going to sell that surplus stuff to? what what happens to those industries in the US and what is the impact to the national economy?


No one is going to say that tariffs wont cause some degree of cost increase to Americans and that there will be some short term pain (Trump just said there will be some short term pain less than 5 minutes ago in his announcement about the tariffs)..

But his counter is that trillions of dollars have already been committed to by international businesses that are going to move their manufacturing to the US, that they're going to invest in the US, etc.. in order to avoid tariffs.. which will create tens of thousands of jobs and improve the US economy long term..

Whereas Canada has about $54B in foreign investment commitments.. and most of those are not promises to build or invest in industry.. they are commitments to purchase Canadian securities..

End sum is the US is clearly prepared to endure some pain, and acknowledges there is some risk...

but the risk and the pain others are going to feel are substantially greater.. and global businesses are recognizing that (despite Canadian govt, European governments, etc jumping up and down and rasing hell about it) and throwing trillions into the US economy to avoid tariffs (the same reason our defense companies have invested in businesses inside Canada, etc.. to avoid Canadian tariffs)..

So if any and all trade deficits numbers and comparisons are a red herring then we come back to my original theory trump lied about the whole trade issue and the security issue he used to justify his trade war, weaponized the u.s. economy to manipulate industry solely because he wanted a bigger slice of the pie.

 

[Alistair]

Trump waited to announce the tariffs until end of market , tomorrow will tell the tail

Already down 2.1% in after hours trading, so I think we know what the response is...

 

[mdwest]

So if any and all trade deficits numbers and comparisons are a red herring then we come back to my original theory trump lied about the whole trade issue and the security issue he used to justify his trade war, weaponized the u.s. economy to manipulate industry solely because he wanted a bigger slice of the pie.

the US is going to have a trade deficit with almost everyone on the planet.. it has the largest economy in the world, the highest per capita GDP in the world, and Americans are culturally major consumers (everyone wants bigger, more, etc..etc..)..

There are a number of countries where the US has a significant trade surplus like the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Australia, and the UK.. and there are a ton of countries where the US has a significant trade deficit like China, the EU, Mexico, Taiwan, Canada (the list where the US has a deficit is significantly longer than the surplus list)..

Surpluses and deficits are driven numerous factors.. exchange rates, global economic conditions, trade policies, domestic demand, production capabilities, etc..etc.. and have very little to do with whether a country is a good or "fair" trading partner..

Being good or fair certainly can impact pricing (tariffs, taxes, etc purposely imposed to limit access to a specific market.. like Canada desiring to protect its dairy market)... but "good" and "fair" are subjective terms.... i.e. if Canada desires to protect its dairy market and intentionally puts policy, tariffs, etc in place to keep the US out of its dairy market.. then is it unfair that the US decides it wants to protect one of its markets and intentionally puts policy and tariffs in place to keep Canada out of that market?.. it would appear that many Canadians believe that to be so..

We discussed the blurred lines between security issues and the tariff issues.. no doubt they exist..

That said, if this were solely the masking of security issues and attempting to leverage Canada into taking certain security measures through the implementation of tariffs, then why did Trump just amounce a 10% tariff on ALL products and services generated outside of the US (from any country on the planet), and reciprocal tariffs on more than 60 countries (including Canada)?

Trump likes making "deals".. the security issue is potentially one way a creative Canadian government could convince Trump to reduce certain tariffs or give some relief to certain markets.. Mexico stepping up on the security side definitely gave them some relief.. but Canadian leaders wanted to stand by the position that the amount of dope and criminals coming into the US from Canada is not substantial, therefore we don't really want to address it, AND we also want to go back and forth on tariffs..

I see the security issue as an opportunity for Canada.. how hard would it really be to commit to truly working toward a secure border (whether Canada thinks its necessary or not, clearly your southern neighbor believes it is necessary) in exchange for maybe the US providing measurable relief to the tariffs it is going to impose on Canadian oil, minerals, and automotive industries?

But instead, here we are..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Any country could have these tariffs removed tomorrow if they wished. Trump only slapped on average, half what each country has on the US in barriers.

 

[mdwest]

Any country could have these tariffs removed tomorrow if they wished. Trump only slapped on average, half what each country has on the US in barriers.

and hes said that from the very beginning..

don't want tariffs? no problem.. drop yours.. and we wont put any on you...

and.. he offered an alternative today (although its always been there.. he just stated it very plainly today)..

build your factory here and make your product here.. we don't tariff products made domestically..

so pretty easy solution from 2 different directions..

countries can get on board, drop their tariffs, and all industries in their country get relief..

or.. if a country wont get on board, companies can individually get on board.. they can move their operation to the US and make their product here..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Yes we should all just drop all Tariffs then the U.S. with its 300 million more consumer surplus and state sponsored industry can swallow up the production capacity of smaller countries. Sounds an awful lot like a hostile takeover in business doesn’t it?
I can afford to bleed longer I’ve got deep pockets and more customers so I force you under.

 

[mdwest]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/02/ontario-premier-doug-ford-wed-be-willing-to-take-our-tariffs-off-if-president-trump-does.html

this appears to be a major shift out of Ford...

Canada is prepared to get rid of its tariffs if the US is willing to not tariff Canada?

Ford wants to keep talking about how its going to hurt American jobs.. and avoids talking about how Canadians are going to get hammered..

and he tries to divert the discussion to China claiming they arent getting hit, when the truth is China is looking at much more severe tariffs than Canada..

but he says over and over again that Canada is prepared to remove tariffs..

 

[mdwest]

Yes we should all just drop all Tariffs then the U.S. with its 300 million more consumer surplus and state sponsored industry can swallow up the production capacity of smaller countries. Sounds an awful lot like a hostile takeover in business doesn’t it?
I can afford to bleed longer I’ve got deep pockets and more customers so I force you under.

we were typing at the same time...

look at what Ford just said today.. he is willing to remove all Canadian tariffs on US goods if the US is willing to remove all tariffs on Canadian goods..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/02/ontario-premier-doug-ford-wed-be-willing-to-take-our-tariffs-off-if-president-trump-does.html

this appears to be a major shift out of Ford...

Canada is prepared to get rid of its tariffs if the US is willing to not tariff Canada?

Ford wants to keep talking about how its going to hurt American jobs.. and avoids talking about how Canadians are going to get hammered..

and he tries to divert the discussion to China claiming they arent getting hit, when the truth is China is looking at much more severe tariffs than Canada..

but he says over and over again that Canada is prepared to remove tariffs..

Thanks you just gave me another reason to dislike the man , wasn’t bad enough he went off half cocked with no federal authority now he’s flip flopped on the issues at hand.

 

[mdwest]

Thanks you just gave me another reason to dislike the man , wasn’t bad enough he went off half cocked with no federal authority now he’s flip flopped on the issues at hand.

Im definitely not a fan of Ford.. this is the discussion he should have led with a month ago.. and negotiated to a positive and fair position.. instead he runs to the extreme on one day.. and then runs in the extreme opposite direction the next day..

he even goes so far to pay Trump a slight compliment, and pays Lutnick numerous compliments in the process..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Im definitely not a fan of Ford.. this is the discussion he should have led with a month ago.. and negotiated to a positive and fair position.. instead he runs to the extreme on one day.. and then runs in the extreme opposite direction the next day..

he even goes so far to pay Trump a slight compliment, and pays Lutnick numerous compliments in the process..

I’ve got more respect for someone I rigidly oppose than someone who blows with the winds of power. Right up there with renting pigs.

 

[Altitude sickness]

The Democrats are yelling the sky will fall and US citizens will pay an additional $5k per household due to tariffs.

I’m old enough to remember Biden inflation costing the average household $17k per year. With zero benefits at the other end of the pain.

Tariffs should result in benefits to the people feeling the pain.

 

[Wheels]

Think the markets were already priced in. Rebound may have to do with countries like Viet Nam, India, Israel coming to terms and dozens of countries in last minute talks.

Looks like I'm probably wrong on this. Doesn't look like markets priced in tariffs as high as announced. Tomorrow is looking red.

 

[Aaron N]

Now this is just funny no matter what your leanings are

 

[deewayne2003]

So here are the lists of the "unfair" trade war tariffs

I guess we are still working on Canada's rate......Remember he posed for this picture with the 17yo girl, and resigned in the middle of the semester rather than face the investigation.

 

[HuntingGold]

I appreciate you posting those figures.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

So here are the lists of the "unfair" trade war tariffs
View attachment 676269
View attachment 676270
View attachment 676271
View attachment 676272

I guess we are still working on Canada's rate......Remember he posed for this picture with the 17yo girl, and resigned in the middle of the semester rather than face the investigation.
View attachment 676275

You keep bringing up about that 17 year old girl like trumps never been accused of sexual misconduct, it’s about as foolish as making the argument trump is good because Trudeau Putin Hilary Biden china or Zelenskyy is bad… TWO WRONGS DON’T MAKE A RIGHT. It’s completely possibly even likely for Canada to have poor leadership and the president of the United States to be a boor at the same time.