Politics

[LivingTheDream]

It is bizarre to me that a foreign leader can call the VP a bitch in the oval office and people are cheering it on.

And I get it, I have been in meetings where I know I was being lied to, they knew they were lying but I sat there and kept my mouth shut because they had something I wanted.

This is the 2nd time Z has backed out on his word with the mineral deal, and I know Trump runs his mouth, but the Z good, Trump bad, is getting old.

Maybe they are both obnoxious and shouldn't be put on live TV?

 

[LivingTheDream]

Not to mention the US governments cost of affordable capital (i.e how cheap can you borrow), and the maintenance on existing debts.

Exactly!!! This why it is critical to get that lower!!

 

[Alistair]

@Alistair,
just two brief comments on your thoughts.

"Well, it's a common myth that the US and the EU are friends, allies, partners. But that's not really true".

You're completely wrong. But completely.
We are (at least we used to be) a community of values that values and protects prosperity, freedom and the right to fair justice and property
Have you ever been to Germany? Do you have contact with the people?

"Support for the Iraq War in the UK for instance had approval ratings of about 45% at the time the UK joined, had dropped to below 20% 1 year in. Yet, the UK stuck it out for the duration. Why?"

Because Tony Blair(UK Primeminister that time) was never the brightest tart on the candle.
The Iraq war was built on lies.
Shame on Rumsfeld,Cheyny,Wolfowitz and Bush 2, how much grief do you think they caused?
Blair supported the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and arranged for British forces to take part in the Iraq war based on the false assumption that Saddam Hussein's regime had weapons of mass destruction and
links to al-Qaeda

Foxi, I have been to Germany, many times. I'm a Brit, and I used to work in Europe a lot in my previous job. I spent 2 months in Berlin, and about 3 weeks all told in Karlsruhe, not to mention my trips for vacations. I have a few (admittedly only a few) friends there to this day.

I've also visited (and worked in) France, Italy, Croatia, Spain, Portugal, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Greece, Poland, Austria, Turkey, Ukraine, and many others besides. I never made it to the Scandi nations though, which is a shame. Plus of course I lived in the UK from birth to the age of 24.

I personally consider the US a fairly reliable ally, with whom we are fairly well strategically aligned. But the 'average European', does not, and I have seen that in many EU nations in my personal experience, not to mention in the polls (and many like them) that I posted.

That I think is unfortunate, but also understandable. The Iraq war was definitely the factor that shook UK confidence in the US the most, and honestly, I don't think it ever really recovered in that nation.

I also think that the general drift left in the EU has lead to more of a gulf in 'culture' with the US in recent years as well. I'm considering attitudes to religion, homosexuality, abortion, immigration, healthcare, and many more besides. Plus of course the utter shambles of recent US politics.

It's notable that the older generation have a much more positive view of the US than the younger generation, and also the folks who 'lean right' seem to be much more positive than those who 'lean left'.

 

[spike.t]

You do know that was written by someone else yesterday and Trump is resharing it, don't you?

Still shite

 

[ActionBob]

Im far from an economist and don't pretend to fully understand the US economy.. I know just enough to get myself into trouble lol... My MBA was a specialized Project Management program, and I sincerely don't think we covered this in either of the Econ courses that I took

What I do know (just from first reading Bessents concern a couple of months ago, and then trying to do a little further reading) is that the 10 yr yield is a major driver in interest rates tied to the housing market.. and with the yield currently as high as it is, affordable housing isn't so "affordable".. My understanding is that its impact on individual interest rates (what you pay for your house) is indirect... its real impact is that it directly effects the rates that the lenders pay for their money when they bundle mortgages..

The other concern that Bessent has spoken about is that we have a ton of debt rollover coming up, and that the cost of servicing our debt is in some way tied to the 1o yr yield as well.. so if we can bring the 10 yr yield down, the debt servicing costs go down, the economy improves, etc..etc..

I believe you are correct on this. If anything you may be giving an abbreviated description of the 10 year importance.

I don't have an MBA at all, nor any other degrees. But I do deal with the finance of our businesses all the time. And the 10 year is very important to both our long term and short term finance.

Short term is mostly based these days on SOFR (it has now replaced LIBOR). Some is still Prime based but very little anymore. However both of those short term rates are heavily influenced by the FFR that gets so much press at every Federal Reserve meeting. These rates of course are variable and can change daily or monthly.

Therefore we look for opportunities to hedge portions of our short term debt for longer periods of time using Swaps, sometimes against the ten year.

There are some very interesting strategies available to effectively lower these higher short term rates

Our long term rates on facilities or even land are often through Commercial Banks that use ten year Swaps to lock in rates.

 

[ActionBob]

My (hazy, possibly wrong) understanding is that the 10yr yield spans far beyond just housing though. It is a major driver of the US 'base rate' for interest, which basically all other lending builds upon as the 'risk free rate'. Mortgages are one part of that, but so is corporate borrowing to build plant, buy equipment, do M&A activity. Not to mention the US governments cost of affordable capital (i.e how cheap can you borrow), and the maintenance on existing debts.

I would say you are mostly correct. I do believe a lot of Mortgages are based on the 30yr. But yes a lot of business loans are based on the 10yr.

 

[DillonG]

Hi Scott. I agree. We all need to educate ourselves. I'm a scientist, retired now after a long career. I led large teams of scientists doing mindbendingly complex work. It was challenging and very fulfilling. Because of this background I understand how scientists in other fields do their work. When I see the overwhelming majority of climate scientists making the same observations, with evidence, which is then studied, repeated and confirmed, I'm comfortable with accepting their advice and warnings. Why aren't you?

Yes, the earth's climate has changed through the eons of time. But consider this. It took hundreds of millions of years for algae in the oceans to lay deep seams of slowly rotting carboniferous material, sucking stupendous quantities of carbon dioxide out of the air in the process and delivering the climate we have today. Now, us humans are releasing vast quantities of this stored carbon back into the atmosphere in a very short space of time. Anyone can understand that this has to have an effect. And it is. It's measurable. In the last 20 years we've been able to see it with our own eyes. It is the rate of change that is the problem. It's going to be very difficult and expensive to deal with and so limiting the impact is very much worth doing.

The climate doesn't care how we vote. A hurricane doesn't know if you're right or left of centre, and how far. This issue is not a matter of epochs. The effects are already being felt and will be very troubling in the next 50 and 100 years. I care about that and I'm sure you do too. It will affect our children and theirs and further generations of our families.

What's strange is how some folk feel that the facts of climate change are a personal attack upon them. It's not personal. It's factual. And, it's so easy to deal with. And so profitable. And healthier. Who doesn't want cleaner air to breathe? I have four ICE cars and enjoy keeping them going, but hardly ever drive them these days. It's fun. And it's thrifty, to extract maximum value from them. I tend to ride a bike most places. If I need another car it won't pollute the air we breathe with all kinds of emissions. Where's the problem with that?

I think it's magical the way aeroplanes fly and sailboats sail. And how so much electricity can be sucked out of sunlight. How electricity can be converted from wind, wave and tidal energy, or from the hot depths of the earth beneath our feet. How hydrogen can be split out of seawater with this energy. Bloody fantastic. It's as simple as using the force that is all around us. It's beautiful. How can people not be fascinated by this? Particularly when it's also a big part of the solution to a huge problem we face. Planting trees will help too. Who doesn't like trees?

C'mon Scott. Try to look at things differently. It's a wonderful feeling knowing that your energy needs have been fulfilled from a few panels sitting still in the sunlight, instead of burning stinky, dead algae and ruining the place. Yeah, I still do that from time to time, but less and less. Loving our beautiful planet and living in it comfortably and sustainably is something we can all do, and enjoy doing. For the benefit of us all.

I would recommend everyone pulling up historical temperature fluctuations after reading this post. I would especially look at the temperature changes after pulse-melt 1 and 2.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

All, for US Defense budget reductions of 8% per year, the total reduction is as follows:

After five years, the total reduction of the current budget will be slightly more than 34%.
While this is significant, it is not 50% or even 40%. It is 34%.

I earned a 89.98% in a college accounting class. With an A grade starting at 90%, I ask the instructor if he would please award me a grade of A. "No, this is accounting..."

If someone otherwise has the written referenece of the same total 8% reduction each year based on the current budget, i.e. same dollar value reduction each year, please provide it.

 

[Doubleplay]

Musk is doing an excellent job of explaining the entire National debt and spending as well as taxing issues if you listen. He puts the relationship of government spending without bouncing a check (just print or borrow more money) into perspective and ties it in to inflation in a way that most can understand.

Same Musk agreed that we should leave Nato and United Nations, today.

 

[ActionBob]

Absolutely. But at the end of the day, this has nothing to do with fairness. Whether Europe collectively invests 5, 3, or zero percent in their own defense, access to European markets remains a critical US national interest.

Joe i just don't understand this line of thinking in the middle of your comments. If we agree that the defense of Europe is in our Nation interest, how is it not important to us that Europe does as much as possible to defend itself? Especially if we are picking up any slack? Less slack = less cost to us doesn't it?

So if they spent 5% and could defend themselves adequately wouldn't that be a great thing for the US taxpayers?

I fully agree access to European markets is a vital US National interest. However not only has Europe used their low percentage spent on defense to prop up their regular social programs, they have also spent a ridiculous amount subsidizing their comparatively inefficient farmers (compared to US farmers) to keep US Agriculture Commodities out.

 

[Neophyte]

I knew he was nuts in his first term. He needs meds.

Where did you go to medical school?

 

[Red Leg]

All, for US Defense budget reductions of 8% per year, the total reduction is as follows:

View attachment 668962

After five years, the total reduction of the current budget will be slightly more than 34%.
While this is significant, it is not 50% or even 40%. It is 34%.

I earned a 89.98% in a college accounting class. With an A grade starting at 90%, I ask the instructor if he would please award me a grade of A. "No, this is accounting..."

If someone otherwise has the written referenece of the same total 8% reduction each year based on the current budget, i.e. same dollar value reduction each year, please provide it.

Every now and then I am reminded that I took my six hours of college level math with the basketball team. I would suggest that a 35% reduction will require deep programmatic cuts.

 

[Lone Star Bluegrass]

From a veteran friend and classmate:
“Do you think Zelensky has one of those tuxedo T shirts for state dinners, galas, etc.?”

 

[Neophyte]

"Who is knowledgeable on every subject?"

No one, and certainly not me. But he really needs to at least appear more knowledgeable - and tactful - regarding international affairs, IMHO.

Being tactful is bovine fecal matter.
Short, simple and to the point leaves little room for misunderstanding.

 

[Red Leg]

Joe i just don't understand this line of thinking in the middle of your comments. If we agree that the defense of Europe is in our Nation interest, how is it not important to us that Europe does as much as possible to defend itself? Especially if we are picking up any slack? Less slack = less cost to us doesn't it?

So if they spent 5% and could defend themselves adequately wouldn't that be a great thing for the US taxpayers?

I fully agree access to European markets is a vital US National interest. However not only has Europe used their low percentage spent on defense to prop up their regular social programs, they have also spent a ridiculous amount subsidizing their comparatively inefficient farmers (compared to US farmers) to keep US Agriculture Commodities out.

Absolutely. It would mitigate our efforts tremendously in protecting those national interests addressed by NATO. I am not arguing that at all. I am grateful for every farthing Europe has spent on its own defense whether through individual defense appropriations or through Europe's support of Ukraine - which to remind has been greater to date than the US in real, not proportion of GDP dollars.

However, I am also saying, whatever the NATO members chose to spend in no way changes fundamental US national interests with regard to Europe. We do not now have, and I would argue have never had, the ability to simply walk away from Europe. Europe has long fully understood that, and Germany, in particular, has taken advantage of that paradigm since the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

 

[Red Leg]

Same Musk agreed that we should leave Nato and United Nations, today.

And get rid of the F-35 and fleet carriers. Because the richest man in the world is also an expert on foreign policy and the application of military power.

 

[Doubleplay]

Peter Doocy gave a report on what set Vance off. According to Doocy it was a good half hour of hostile body language by Zelinsky. Very apparent to Vance (and some of the reporters) from his position in the room. Not so to Trump as he was sitting side by side with Zelinsky. It had apparently gone on long enough and with enough intensity that Vance had just plain had enough. Vance was obviously very irritated and I think this explains it.

If he can read body language Vance must be a psychiatrist.
What a joke of an excuse for the behaviour he displayed..

 

[MauserM03Blog]

And what you're doing is what us blue collar guys call "Pissing in the wind" or as my old man used to say to me "You've got delusions of grandeur". The day the entire human race and it's political divisions coalesce around trying to change the climate will be when the dinosaurs return to earth.

But people already are using renewal energy, all around the world. It’s growing quickly, because it’s such a good idea.

It’s like chocolate. It looks like a bad idea, then you try it. ‘Oh yeah. I’ll have more of that!’ You’ll see.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Being tactful is bovine fecal matter.
Short, simple and to the point leaves little room for misunderstanding.

You are correct: it is easy to assess quickly who is a complete ass.

 

[lwaters]

Where did you go to medical school?

It doesn't take a doctor to figure that out. He spray paints
himself orange. He hired the .muskrat who has 14 illegitimate children and wants to live on Mars. They cut defense spending to the army navy air force
and muskrat will get the big space force Contract. They will get rid of the dept of agriculture and his rich buddies will buy up the farmland. Control the food you control the people. Heck maybe he is a genius.