Politics

[PHOENIX PHIL]

So Ukraine gets what in return?

 

[mdwest]

I admit I havent dug very deeply into the data regarding russian losses of personnel and equipment, its impact on their GDP, impact on their defensive/offensive capability, etc. in several months..

But.. I think there is strong reason to believe that many, if not most of our strategic goals and objectives associated with backing Ukraine were probably reached by the end of the second year of the war.. the losses Russia has taken in materials and manpower, and the weaknesses exposed in many of its primary systems have set them back decades. With their current industrial capability, economy, and birth rate its going to be a very long time before they pose a threat to any developed country other than a nuclear one.. Even their cyber capabilities have been set back by many years.. Prior to this war a significant number of the state sponsored Russian cyber criminal groups were manned by Ukrainians.. those relationships are dissolved now (google CONTI Group to get an understanding of what Im talking about) and many of those Ukranian cyber criminals are dead from the conflict..

Im not sure we have much left to gain by continuing to back Ukraine strategically (again, Im admitting I very well could be wrong here).. if that is true we probably should have started seriously trying to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine several months, if not a year or more ago...

That said.. my principal concern in all of this is reputational risk to the US.. We historically have something of a reputation (well earned) for being fair weathered friends.. sooner or later we're going to find that our "friends" arent really our friends anymore at all..

I don't know that the Ukranians have ever really been our "friends" per se (again google CONTI Group.. consider corruption issues and how they are tied to US political figures.. etc etc).. but we certainly have sided with them in this fight from the beginning.. there's an argument to be made that we should continue to see things through with them until the end..

and even if the Ukrainians arent our "friends" (maybe more of an acquaintance?).. we have certainly been friends with the Germans, Poles, French, Brits, etc..etc.. for a very long time.. and they clearly have very strong concerns about how we're playing our cards right now..

Im not advocating that we let our "friends" run all over us.. Im completely on board with holding the NATO nations feet to the fire on military spending, etc..

But at the same time, Im also not a fan of being a fair weathered friend... and that's what it appears we are being right now to our NATO partners..

If we don't want to be part of NATO anymore.. I would disagree with that move.. but, fine.. there is a right way and a wrong way to extricate ourselves from that treaty... if we don't want to back Ukraine anymore, again, I would disagree with that move (although I do agree there needs to be a lot more controls in place if we're going to continue to back them), but fine.. there's a right way and a wrong way to extricate ourselves from that relationship too...

Im not seeing us having any sort of commitment to being "right"... which is what bothers me..

 

[mdwest]

So Ukraine gets what in return?

I think we'll know more over the next few days... but for now all Im seeing is an assurance that we don't start backing the Russians...

From what Im reading we've offered them no security guarantees in exchange...

Although if we ever intend on collecting on those mineral rights, clearly they have to maintain their borders and those areas have to be secure (i.e. the war would have to be over)...

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

I think we'll know more over the next few days... but for now all Im seeing is an assurance that we don't start backing the Russians...

From what Im reading we've offered them no security guarantees in exchange...

Although if we ever intend on collecting on those mineral rights, clearly they have to maintain their borders and those areas have to be secure (i.e. the war would have to be over)...

I would think so too.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Mdwest, “I don't know that the Ukranians have ever really been our "friends" per se”

The US is like the kid brother that everyone picked on when they were young and weak.

Before we were a superpower most of our now allies took turns kicking our ass. Or ripping us off at sea or over seas.

Then when little bro had a growth spurt and developed a new weapon. All of a sudden we have new friends.

As soon as the dollar is replaced or devalued we will see who our “friends” are. Most of our “friends” actually despise us.

But cozy up because we are now the big bro with a mean punch.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

De facto security guarantee

 

[deewayne2003]

what exactly do you think "hurt" looks like to a man worth $400B?

he is currently earning are a little over $96M a day.. and that number is increasing, not decreasing.. he literally has so much wealth that the money he currently has earns at a pace faster than it can be spent..

If his net worth dropped to lets say $250B.. do you think that's hurting? (he was only worth $250B this time last year.. I don't think he was hurting then)..

What if it dropped to $100B.. do you think that is hurting?

What Musk revels in is being the center of attention... he prescribes to PT Barnums belief that he doesn't care what the papers say about him.. as long as they spell his name right..

Those signs in the UK that @Tanks posted.. I'd bet you my next paycheck that not only does he not care, he likely finds them funny and enjoys that he has peoples feathers ruffled (including yours)..

He was hated by the right in most of his younger years (he is by no means a social conservative).. he's now been hated by the left for most of the last decade...

Much like trump, he couldn't give a shit.. your opinion, the opinion of Euros not buying his cars, etc.. matter not..

What matters is you're all still talking about him.. and he is still making money faster than anyone else on the planet..

Notice the focus on Tesla... because that's the only measurable negative..

The EU has zero impact on SpaceX.. because it chose LONG before last November not to invest in SpaceX..

The EU has zero impact on Starlink.. because it chose LONG before last November not to invest in Starlink and instead has been working on its own competitive system..

Notice no talk about Gigafactories.. because Musk has been telling several european nations to pound sand that want them (Scotland for example).. and other EU countries like Germany are so heavily invested they cant break away from any deal made ($5B invested by Germany already with more funding planned)..

Twitter/X, Tesla, etc.. are a small fraction of Musks wealth.. and whether or not people abandon those brands or not will have limited impact (this has already been discussed prior in this very thread, specifically about X/Twitter.. the BANKS are losing money on the Twitter deal.. Musk is very much raking in a fortune).. .

@mdwest you so tastefully articulated what I was both trying to convey and what I admire about Elon…

He gives zero F@$KS about what others think of him and he literally gets off on living in the minds of his detractors rent free!

 

[Red Leg]

Isn’t it a little drastic and sensational to talk about the military taking over?

One would hope, but it doesn't alter the historical fragility of democracies. Ours and the UK have been very resilient - thus far.

Mdwest, “I don't know that the Ukranians have ever really been our "friends" per se”

The US is like the kid brother that everyone picked on when they were young and weak.

Before we were a superpower most of our now allies took turns kicking our ass. Or ripping us off at sea or over seas.

Then when little bro had a growth spurt and developed a new weapon. All of a sudden we have new friends.

As soon as the dollar is replaced or devalued we will see who our “friends” are. Most of our “friends” actually despise us.

But cozy up because we are now the big bro with a mean punch.

Isn't that true of every great power that ever existed? Cold, clear-eyed analysis of national interests forge international partnerships. Nothing else.

One exception might be the UK. Since the Roman Empire, I can't think of any other near peer relationship that existed as much through common culture and mutual national interests as that between the United States and United Kingdom. But even that has only been the case since the Second World War. It is termed a special relationship for a reason.

We aided Ukraine because confounding Russian attempts to reestablish itself as the dominant power in Eastern Europe was not in our national interests. Ukraine gladly accepted that help because it was fighting for its survival. Preventing Russian ambitions is still a key national interest no matter how hard Trump's acolytes and spokesmen try to twist themselves into rhetorical knots denying it.

 

[Wheels]

@mdwest you so tastefully articulated what I was both trying convey and what I admire about Elon…

He gives zero F@$KS about what others think of him and he literally gets off on living in the minds of his detractors rent free!

In Musks own words.

 

[PARA45]

 

[Certus]

So when we get a ceasefire there may be capacity to look backward to do a deep dive into the Biden/Blinken teams decision to not take up the proposed peace deal very early in the Ukraine war.

supposedly Russia agreed to stop hostilities if Ukraine would commit to never joining NATO.

Was Biden and Zelenskyy correct in not taking that deal.

Ignoring the hundreds of thousands of lives lost and billions spent.

It could be argued that the Biden Zelenskyy decision to continue the war. And Biden not giving enough support to actually win the war, did have a huge positive effect. The 3 years of war took a lot of punch out of Russia.

So did the Biden Zelenskyy strategy Actually work better than ending it early? Only
to prolong the inevitable of Putin attacking at a later date.

I don’t think Zelenskyy was as in on the American weaken Russia plan as is though, they were just used as the sacrifice to get to the goal by the Americans.

I see Zelenski caved to Trumps mineral rights thing, yay no more free hand outs for them is a good thing.

 

[Red Leg]

I don’t think Zelenskyy was as in on the American weaken Russia plan as is though, they were just used as the sacrifice to get to the goal by the Americans.

I see Zelenski caved to Trumps mineral rights thing, yay no more free hand outs for them is a good thing.

On the contrary. It is now a true joint venture which Zelensky can sell to the Ukrainian people and one which will complicate greatly any further Russian aggression against Ukraine. Trump could have done this on day one. Best I can tell Kellogg is the one who saved it after Vance and Rubio failed. Trump doesn't get directly his 500 billion for a 100 billion investment, and Ukraine doesn't get an explicit security guarantee. The implicit one, however, will give Russia fits, and the joint venture will be hugely profitable for both countries. A real win win.

The deal now actually closely resembles the 1943 American Arabian Oil Company deal which benefitted the US and Saudi Arabia hugely for almost three decades. A deal for which Trump will and should claim credit. He is President.

Now lets see what the actual territory of Ukraine will encompass. Much of the disputed area contains many of those resources.

Ukraine reaches minerals deal with United States

Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is ready to sign an agreement with the U.S. on jointly developing its mineral resources. Read more

financialpost.com

 

[John Wasmuth]

FBI director Petal opens investigation into James Comey!! Good, let the chips fall where they may…..

 

[Brent in Az]

Trump needs to coerce Zelinskyy into giving up whatever dirt he has on the Bidens and or Democrats.
Even though Biden made the preemptive pardons, they can still be exposed to the American public.

 

[CJW]

Lots of good instruction in this.

 

[Brent in Az]

FBI director Petal opens investigation into James Comey!! Good, let the chips fall where they may…..

Christopher Wray also needs a rectal examination

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[Lone Star Bluegrass]

On the contrary. It is now a true joint venture which Zelensky can sell to the Ukrainian people and one which will complicate greatly any further Russian aggression against Ukraine. Trump could have done this on day one. Best I can tell Kellogg is the one who saved it after Vance and Rubio failed. Trump doesn't get directly his 500 billion for a 100 billion investment, and Ukraine doesn't get an explicit security guarantee. The implicit one, however, will give Russia fits, and the joint venture will be hugely profitable for both countries. A real win win.

The deal now actually closely resembles the 1943 American Arabian Oil Company deal which benefitted the US and Saudi Arabia hugely for almost three decades. A deal for which Trump will and should claim credit. He is President.

Now lets see what the actual territory of Ukraine will encompass. Much of the disputed area contains many of those resources.

Ukraine reaches minerals deal with United States

Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is ready to sign an agreement with the U.S. on jointly developing its mineral resources. Read more

financialpost.com

This assessment of course assumes that Zelensky was willing to make this deal on day one and it’s not a product of weeks of posturing, proposals, and counter proposals.
In short, it’s more likely that Trump had this planned all along. Countries that trade a significant amount with each other have a vested interest in the other party’s continued prosperous economic growth. The Kuwaitis are certainly believers.

 

[Wheels]

Hats off to Johnson for getting this done with a slim majority. Now to read it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1894559419351863312

 

[Red Leg]

This assessment of course assumes that Zelensky was willing to make this deal on day one and it’s not a product of weeks of posturing, proposals, and counter proposals.
In short, it’s more likely that Trump had this planned all along. Countries that trade a significant amount with each other have a vested interest in the other party’s continued prosperous economic growth. The Kuwaitis are certainly believers.

Yes, I am sure he had it all figured out in advance - or maybe Zelensky did and he played Trump? Point of view tends to reinforce views rather than clarify them. Trump could have preached this as a win-win from day one rather than as a 500 billion dollar shakedown. Now, to many in the world - though never his unquestioning followers of course - he looks like he was bloviating. I again thank goodness for the presence of Kellogg in Kyiv for three days of hard constructive work.

But read the article and draw your own conclusions.