Politics

[Red Leg]

If you have neat handwriting you can fit the Budapest Memorandum on a cocktail napkin, it does not in any way oblige United States to defend Ukraine, only to seek action by the UN Security Council if aggression against Ukraine meets certain parameters.

Pretty good summation.

It is why I have always viewed aiding Ukraine not as an obligation but an action clearly in our critical national interests.

 

[Pondoro]

This attached clip is the current view of German prosecutors from an interview yesterday on American TV. The German government is raiding peoples homes in the middle of the night and arresting people and confiscating electronics who have said/posted/reposted something the government deems insulting. In other words the government is the determiner, judge and jury of what can be said. This is very reminiscent of Germany in the 1930's. The AFD is opposed to this. Free speech has been a western idea since before Socrates death for free speech. As an American perhaps I value this Human Right far more than Europeans and others in the west.

Jerome does a good job of allowing us to post free thoughts in this thread. Some good, some bad, some articulate, some not, some correct, some uninformed. There is no way the human species can learn, adapt, and grow without thinking out loud and sharing ideas. To share ideas one always takes the risk of insulting another, intentional or not. The members of AH do a good job of self policing. I have reposted inaccurate information before believing the source was correct. I also hold opinions contrary to the current German coalition government. If I was in Germany I could be fined and imprisoned for my views. If the AFD is the German party for free speech and more freedom for the masses, it is easy to see why they are gaining popularity. The upcoming German election will be interesting to watch unfold. We will all see which version of Germany the citizens choose to live in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1891302425190863347

This is turned upside down...the AfD people and lately your government try to market whats happening as a violation of free speech. What they call sharing ideas is breaking german law, ie german laws against hate speech.

So, let me spell it out for you, this is a matter of breaking german hate speech law. If you do not like german law, fine.. But its not violating free speech.

 

[BSO Dave]

So, let me spell it out for you, this is a matter of breaking german hate speech law. If you do not like german law, fine.. But its not violating free speech.

If this is actually German law, it's insanity... You have lost your basic freedoms, and not only are you unaware of it, but they have also you defending it...

 

[Pondoro]

If this is actually German law, it's insanity... You have lost your basic freedoms, and not only are you unaware of it, but they have also you defending it...

No hate speech laws in America..??

 

[Datchew]

I feel that there is one thing missing from a lot of this Ukraine support debate. @Red Leg can verify but if I remember correctly in exchange for Ukraine getting rid of their nuclear weapons we would protect Ukraine from invasion. If this is true I feel we are obligated to help. Or it will be another broken promise from the US.

First I've heard of this. Would be interested to hear more. It would certainly impact my own view of the situation.

 

[Datchew]

Bill Clinton “agreed” to it but it was never submitted to the Senate as required under Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution for official ratification.

Thx. Replied too soon.

 

[Russ16]

I have read the same regarding COBOL. An issue that I have is that Social Security is still using a computer language I learned in college in the 1970's to run at least parts of their system. You have to question SS management for not updating and cleaning up the system in the last 50 years. Bessent said that Treasury was run on COBOL.

There are probably some reasonable explanations for much of the 394 million open SS numbers. But you still have to question the management for not updating and having a clean system.

You can’t blame SS management for software being old. To upgrade would require an appropriation from congress and those are routinely denied. Many agencies are on old systems as a result. Many major upgrades take multiple years but Congress approves the budget one year at a time. Throw in an occasional govt shutdown or extended continuing resolutions and it becomes hard to invest in long term projects.

I agree the agencies should run more efficiently and upgrading systems could be a big part of that. Unfortunately the way the system works that’s harder to do.

Imagine running a business where your annual budget had to be approved by a group of people who don’t know much about the operation of your business and about 20% of whom are new every two years.

I’m glad we have the congressional oversight and checks and balance but they do make things less efficient.

 

[BSO Dave]

No hate speech laws in America..??

NO.. We have a First Amendment in our Constitution that protects free speech... The lunatics on the left here have tried and failed to regulate free speech for many years...

Furthermore, the concept of "hate speech" is completely and absolutely subjective... There is no way to define it, so you cannot impose a law against a concept that cannot be defined...

The only exception to this is a threat of physical violence against another person...

 

[Russ16]

Hopefully this kind of political retaliation is a thing of the past. Reminds me of Gabbard being put on TSA watch list and Eric Adams being charged. If a person is a threat, sic a government agency on them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1891562620466978839

Those things aren’t always retaliation. Ted Kennedy was on the no fly list when it first came out because of his link to IRA figures.

 

[Brent in Az]

Delta airlines plane crashes at Toronto airport and flipped upside down

 

[deewayne2003]

A dear friend of mine just had two tragedies in 10 days, the loss of his spouse and the loss of his father. (Father was 95, spouse was 70ish) The mortal remains weren’t even cold yet and the auto-payment of social security benefits was cut off. The local banks immediately reversed the auto-deposits as soon as they were aware of their passing, neither have been issued death certificates yet.

The point: I find it deeply suspicious that SSA is paying out all these benefits to old people when they are incredibly vigilant to cease all payments within DAYS of passing sans a death certificate.

Unrelated, but I have another story that is first hand. I was a senior executive at a company that did all the processing for the means-test based Social Security supplemental income program. We also happened to have a database of every bank in America. We found that using simple technology, we could reject 16% of all applications for that program because they withheld accounts in their name during the application process. (Obviously to hide money which would preclude eligibility). Mind you, this wasn’t rocket science, but we’re talking about billions of dollars in benefits surely. The government was not interested in this service and would not allow us to use this simple vetting process that would reject about 1:7 of all applications automatically for cause.

Just like there are protest videos all over social media, posted by illegals who are complaining because BOA is now requiring SS# and ID for withdrawals.

I remember when BOA was the first bank to open accounts without a SS# way back in the early 2000’s; there’s no telling how much of the illegal migrants money they are sitting on.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

I know of no other way to compare the budget sacrifices of Lithuania to the United States. Percentage of GDP is the only logical way of expressing that relative value of that commitment between such hugely different economies.

I am totally puzzled about what bothers you about the filling of military aid appropriations. I suppose we could transfer a billion actual dollars from the appropriation and let Ukraine transfer it back to us at 10 mil a copy or whatever the total cost is for Abrams tanks. But, is that a better management system? Or perhaps we should have contracted with GD directly for new production tanks, charging their full cost to the appropriation and thus American taxpayer? We would then add training and transportation costs on top of it.

The assigned value of the materiel is audited. I know it is popular to point out that the Pentagon can't pass an audit, but that doesn't mean the component parts of the vast defense structure aren't carefully managed. And yes, it is a fairly complex depreciation drill.

I suspect that @Mark A Ouellette could give us a tutorial of such valuation management.

Thanks @Red Leg for the compliment but I’ve never worked with depreciation of defense weapons systems. I don’t think short of demilitarization or Defense Logistics Agency’s Defense Reutilization, it is even possible to depreciate weapons systems, be they tanks, fighters, of specialized laptops. For over 20 of the past 40 years working in and for DoD in procurement, sustainment, and demilitarization of weapons systems, spare parts, and ammunition to include explosives, I’ve never been advised by DoD contracting that a system was worth any less than it’s in production procurement cost. Further, I can’t find anything in the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) about depreciating weapons systems. There probably is for common items like fleets of commercial automobiles and office equipment but I’ve a weapons guy.

Please remember there are Public Laws passed by the US Congress, along with DoD regulations that govern how weapons systems from specially configured laptops to F-35 fighters are developed, procured, trained, operated, sustained, and eventually put in storage or sent to be demilitarized. Some of the older equipment is sold to friendly foreign nations via Foreign Military Sales (FMS). Other times with Presidential and/or Congressional authorization, such as presently is occurring in Ukraine, our military equipment is provided for friendly nations to train on and/or use to defend themselves.

Let’s consider an Abrams tank. I pulled this off the Internet so it may not be exact but it’s close enough for this analogy. “The cost of an M1 Abrams tank varies, with the M1A1 model estimated at around $4.3 million, while the more advanced M1A2 SEPv3 can cost approximately $24 million.”

A base Abrams M1A1 when in production for a lot of say 500+ units cost $4.3 million each. Chances are that cost is double or more today.

A current M1A2 SEPv3 costs $24 million each for a lot of approximately 500. That is if those tanks were to be built from scratch. Probably not because with a few thousand M1A1’s sitting in the desert, some of those will be the base of the new SEPv3’s. Their $4.3M procurement cost each is just the base price of the new SEPv3’s.

This is why DoD doesn’t depreciate a weapons system. When the main production line throttles back to 5% of full rate production, each unit produced is probably twice the cost of the larger initial contract price. The 5% production is maintained to keep the line open. Because when the production line is gone, it is nearly impossible to resume production for anything than another full rate production. Production lines have specialized equipment that when gone, must be procured again.

Here’s another aspect, old weapons systems form the base of current requirements of upgraded versions capable of the necessary offensive capabilities and defensive survivability. Otherwise with the production line in a skeleton state, where would we acquire a few hundred Abrams for upgrading. So, each old Abrams sitting in the desert is worth at least what we paid for it.

If the USA pulls a few hundred M1A1 Abrams out of desert storage at $4.3M each and restores/rebuilds them to full operational capability at a cost of $1M each, the net cost is $5.3M each. But let’s not have a cow because the cash outlay was $1M each, not $5.3M. Plus, that $1M each is for USA labor and components and parts, mostly made here!

What if we continue this to demilitarization rather than rebuilding or reutilization? Those Abrams have components and parts in them with demil codes restricting them to very secure or hazardous material restricted destruction. Each special demil of a component costs money, our tax dollars! First however, those parts must be removed from each tank, cleaned, catalogued, and then shipped to the probably unfunded demil facility. Once again, John Q. Public tax payer pays for that. Demilitarizing an Abrams probably costs about the same as an upgrade and shipment to Ukraine.

Remember the components and piece parts that have environmentally restricted materials? Those are very expensive to demilitarize. Only a few places can accommodate them and it is expensive to do so. These environmentally restricted materials are found in many different types of military ammunition. That’s the stuff that goes “bomb” when it hits the target. Talk about a waste of our tax dollars! It would probably be cheaper overall to just shoot it off but that would be illegal. Illegal? Yes, there are laws against this for demil. But, if our allies need ammo and we have old ammo that would over wise be on the demil list due to exceeding their shelf life, it is legal for the USA to ship it to our allies who will shoot at our mutual enemies.

The bottom line is probably half to ¾ of the value of the military aid authorized by the President and Congress is accounted for in old weapons systems and aging ammunition. All of that would eventually cost you and I tax dollars to demilitarize.

What @Red Leg states time and time again is accurate, very accurate. Further, for those who from time to time demean him because he is a Major General in a retired duty status, or post service had a career as a business executive, grow up. This forum includes a lot of high powered people balanced by common Joe’s and everyone in between.

What @Red Leg states about aid to Ukraine is accurate. Heck he commanded the DoD Security Assistance Office (probably not the correct designation). That’s the bureaucratic entity that processes all the defense equipment going to places like Ukraine.

For those that wonder who the heck I am, I am a former USMC Gunnery Sergeant, Chief Warrant Officer-3, who retired as a Limited Duty Officer (LDO, very specialized and like Trump, "Loud, Dumb, and Obnoxious" ) Captain. I followed my service with a career assisting DoD in weapons systems management. Be advised, no one hates arrogant, uppity unrestricted (“regular”) officers more than someone with my service background. Having met our resident General Officer and looked him in the eyeballs, he’s good to go!

 

[V.Veritas]

Yes. Cruise missiles.

On the missiles topic - I heard rumours that Russia has hypersonic missiles that US has no answer to. The Patriot missiles are too slow. Any truth in that?

 

[mdwest]

Let’s just say the US hypersonic capability, both offensive and defensive is significantly superior to anything the Russians or Chinese have developed…

Similar to “fifth generation fighters”…yeah… the Russians and Chinese have them..

But nothing they have holds a candle to a Raptor or a Lightning II…

They know it… and we know it…

 

[Hunt anything]

First I've heard of this. Would be interested to hear more. It would certainly impact my own view of the situation.

Evidently it was never ratified by the senate, so it’s not worth the paper it was written on.

 

[rookhawk]

For those that wonder who the heck I am, I am a former USMC Gunnery Sergeant, Chief Warrant Officer-3, who retired as a Limited Duty Officer (LDO, very specialized) Captain. I followed my service with a career assisting DoD in weapons systems management.

@Mark A Ouellette that's a remarkable career! A senior enlisted E7, than a CW3, than a commissioned O3? Thats three pretty remarkable careers. Thank you for your service.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Rookhawk, If you ever have the chance to shoot with Mark you will realize he is definitely a JarHead. A very good shot and a stickler for safety protocols.

 

[rookhawk]

Rookhawk, If you ever have the chance to shoot with Mark you will realize he is definitely a JarHead. A very good shot and a stickler for safety protocols.

I've heard. I've also heard you guys are neighbors. I don't know what will happen first, my invasion of MI, or your invasion of WI. Either way, I'll bring the bourbon and look forward to meeting you both in-person.

 

[Altitude sickness]

You are welcome anytime. We have briefly talked about holding a shoot/get together here in Michigan.

 

[Tanks]

I feel that there is one thing missing from a lot of this Ukraine support debate. @Red Leg can verify but if I remember correctly in exchange for Ukraine getting rid of their nuclear weapons we would protect Ukraine from invasion. If this is true I feel we are obligated to help. Or it will be another broken promise from the US.

What is ironic is that Russia was actually one of the countries guaranteeing, along with US and UK, their security.

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org