Politics

[Hunt anything]

I’m past ready for this crap to be over! If it’s one candidate wanting money it’s another all day long . Now Ted Cruz says his race is leaning to Allred . If that is true the republicans don’t have much of a chance ft they can’t hold Texas. Hopefully he just wants money.

Listening to the radio and news both sides say that the early vote is going their way . Who in the hell are we supposed to believe? One poll says one thing and the next says the opposite. November 6th can’t get here quickly enough!

 

[cwpayton]

I’m past ready for this crap to be over! If it’s one candidate wanting money it’s another all day long . Now Ted Cruz says his race is leaning to Allred . If that is true the republicans don’t have much of a chance ft they can’t hold Texas. Hopefully he just wants money.

Listening to the radio and news both sides say that the early vote is going their way . Who in the hell are we supposed to believe? One poll says one thing and the next says the opposite. November 6th can’t get here quickly enough!

Dont think it will be over Nov. 6 by a long shot..

 

[Hunt anything]

Dont think it will be over Nov. 6 by a long shot..

You’re most likely right. At least they will quit calling/emailing for money. I do think that most if not all of the down ballot races will be called but most likely not the presidential race. I do feel fairly confident about taking the senate unless Cruz loses. I’m confident the republicans will pick up West Virginia and Montana.

 

[John Wasmuth]

Never pay attention to poles, look how 2016 turned out for comrade Clinton after the poles showed her 39 points ahead…….. the media lies cheats and steals. Her newest lie that Trump will use the military to round up his enemies is far from reality but democrats honestly believe it. You’d have to be circus chimp to think it would happen.

 

[Brent in Az]

Mr. Pelosi's hammer attacker is sentenced to life in prison without parole.

Edit:
He was already serving 30 years on Federal charges. State charges gave him life.

 

[cash_tx]

 

[flatwater bill]

37 years ago a young Ivy League law student published a book entitled " Ally vs Ally: America, Europe and the Siberian Pipeline Crisis". The book foretells the future of Ukraine in a Nostradamus like fashion.

Worth reading if you don't understand the war in Ukraine. Or if you think you do. But especially if you're sure that you do.

The author is Antony Blinken, the current Secretary of State............FWB

 

[Tbitty]

I'm proud to say that I cast my vote today for our first female President.

... but mine was a write-in candidate. ;-)

View attachment 643546

Is that spelled "Hawk Tuah", or "Kamala"?

 

[wesheltonj]

37 years ago a young Ivy League law student published a book entitled " Ally vs Ally: America, Europe and the Siberian Pipeline Crisis". The book foretells the future of Ukraine in a Nostradamus like fashion.

Worth reading if you don't understand the war in Ukraine. Or if you think you do. But especially if you're sure that you do.

The author is Antony Blinken, the current Secretary of State............FWB

Care to give us the “Cliff Notes” version.

 

[Hunt anything]

Our illustrious commander in chief just called all trump supporters “floating garbage”

 

[John Wasmuth]

Our illustrious commander in chief just called all trump supporters “floating garbage”

The sitting president just called 1/2 of America “Garbage”,,,,,,,,,, let that sink in….

 

[cash_tx]

The only two people that I've ever heard in my adult life say anything negative about Puerto Rico were both middle-aged Puerto Rican immigrants. They had some pride in their homeland and upbringing, but will never move back.

 

[Red Leg]

There has been a lot of speculation about a repeat of Trump being underestimated by national polls in 2016 and 2020. Were it happening again, that would bode very well for next week. However, this is the first bit of analysis I have seen that incorporates the democrat underestimation in the 2022 congressional races where the red wave never happened.

Election polling could be underestimating Kamala Harris, Democrats in key states, CNN data reporter warns

CNN's Harry Enten said Tuesday that election polling could be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris in this election cycle, rather than Donald Trump.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

There has been a lot of speculation about a repeat of Trump being underestimated by national polls in 2016 and 2020. Were it happening again, that would bode very well for next week. However, this is the first bit of analysis I have seen that incorporates the democrat underestimation in the 2022 congressional races where the red wave never happened.

Election polling could be underestimating Kamala Harris, Democrats in key states, CNN data reporter warns

CNN's Harry Enten said Tuesday that election polling could be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris in this election cycle, rather than Donald Trump.

www.foxnews.com

Watched a video today from someone I haven’t seen before with some analysis on NBC statistics of early voting numbers. Pretty interesting. Republicans over performing in most cases and democrats either performing normally or very, very slightly underperforming. If republicans over performing early means an underperformance on Election Day this is going to be incredibly tight.

 

[Red Leg]

Watched a video today from someone I haven’t seen before with some analysis on NBC statistics of early voting numbers. Pretty interesting. Republicans over performing in most cases and democrats either performing normally or very, very slightly underperforming. If republicans over performing early means an underperformance on Election Day this is going to be incredibly tight.

I agree, that is clearly the analysis taking place on republican friendly sites. I posted the other piece as a bit of a cautionary tale going into next Tuesday. The other caution is that total number of votes for each party will be what they will be. Republicans have been emphasizing early voting this cycle. Are we actually seeing greater enthusiasm than last cycle or is the party merely burning through its total earlier due to early voting?

I have no idea, and I doubt anyone else really does. My only point is that like the red wave of 22, republicans could talk themselves into a victory on Tuesday and wake up to defeat on Wednesday. And no one will have cheated. I pray that will not be the case because of the senate and house races that would also suffer.

 

[Certus]

I agree, that is clearly the analysis taking place on republican friendly sites. I posted the other piece as a bit of a cautionary tale going into next Tuesday. The other caution is that total number of votes for each party will be what they will be. Republicans have been emphasizing early voting this cycle. Are we actually seeing greater enthusiasm than last cycle or is the party merely burning through its total earlier due to early voting?

I have no idea, and I doubt anyone else really does. My only point is that like the red wave of 22, republicans could talk themselves into a victory on Tuesday and wake up to defeat on Wednesday. And no one will have cheated. I pray that will not be the case because of the senate and house races that would also suffer.

Media have already announced counting could take weeks like last time. Yuck.

 

[LivingTheDream]

I agree, that is clearly the analysis taking place on republican friendly sites. I posted the other piece as a bit of a cautionary tale going into next Tuesday. The other caution is that total number of votes for each party will be what they will be. Republicans have been emphasizing early voting this cycle. Are we actually seeing greater enthusiasm than last cycle or is the party merely burning through its total earlier due to early voting?

I have no idea, and I doubt anyone else really does. My only point is that like the red wave of 22, republicans could talk themselves into a victory on Tuesday and wake up to defeat on Wednesday. And no one will have cheated. I pray that will not be the case because of the senate and house races that would also suffer.

For what it is worth, I have been looking st the underlying data of each poll and comparing it to exit polls from 2020. Some of the numbers make no sense, one poll had Trump +1, sample 3% more democrats and had Kamala over performing every demographic compared to Biden exit polls. No way that is Trump +1.

I think they are baking in some of the under representation from previous cycles. The big unknowns are first time unaffiliated voters (which I read make up about 14% of the early voting). But it is going to be extremely close and just from a pure data standpoint, I think it favors Kamala. But that assumes people actually turn out to vote and I think she doesn't have the ground game we have seen in previous cycles.

But it could all be BS, and the polls are fitting a narrative to try to motivate Kamala voters to actually vote. But I do think it will be over by Wednesday morning.

 

[VertigoBE]

I'm proud to say that I cast my vote today for our first female President.

... but mine was a write-in candidate. ;-)

View attachment 643546

Well, you know she means business and that there is dessert at the end

 

[Altitude sickness]

I agree, that is clearly the analysis taking place on republican friendly sites. I posted the other piece as a bit of a cautionary tale going into next Tuesday. The other caution is that total number of votes for each party will be what they will be. Republicans have been emphasizing early voting this cycle. Are we actually seeing greater enthusiasm than last cycle or is the party merely burning through its total earlier due to early voting?

I have no idea, and I doubt anyone else really does. My only point is that like the red wave of 22, republicans could talk themselves into a victory on Tuesday and wake up to defeat on Wednesday. And no one will have cheated. I pray that will not be the case because of the senate and house races that would also suffer.

I think the Red Wave collapse was due to Due Dobbs vs. Jackson

AND over confident Republicans staying home because it was “only” a midterm. and it’s going to be a landslide. I don’t need to vote mentality.

Kamala has this one in the bag. Any bets?

 

[Wheels]

I think the Red Wave collapse was due to Due Dobbs vs. Jackson

AND over confident Republicans staying home because it was “only” a midterm. and it’s going to be a landslide. I don’t need to vote mentality.

Kamala has this one in the bag. Any bets?

Dobbs was the lynchpin of the 2022 election. Covid was the lynchpin of the 2020 election. I am not seeing anything as significant in 2024 for the Democrats to rally around at the moment.