Politics

[mdwest]

Iran will probably does not exist as it does today in 5 years.

I like Zeihan... While I dont always agree with him (he is super focused on macro economic inputs and their potential outputs.. and tends to ignore or at least not adequately address micro economic issues or cultural impacts), his logic is generally solid, and he is reasonably unbiased (IMO)..

That said.. I completely disagree with him on Iran..

Everyone has been saying Iran will cease to exist as it does today in 5 years.. for the last 45 years (1979)... and yet... here they still stand.. in fact their regional (and in some ways global) influence has actually expanded, despite sanctions, military interventions, etc..

An 8 year all out war with Iraq (where they took numerous ass beatings) didnt break them.. and they share a border with Iraq.. they lost 200K troops during that war and they spent close to $20B pursuing that conflict (1980's money.. that would be close to $1T in todays money)...

They have continually prodded and poked the Israelis as well as the US for 45 years.. and.. still stand defiant.. despite getting their asses handed to them in a number of different ways over the years..

Shy of them pushing the US and Israel as a combined force to commit to an outright invasion of Iran sometime in the next 18 months.. I dont see Iran ceasing to exist as we know it in the next 5 years..

 

[LivingTheDream]

I like Zeihan... While I dont always agree with him (he is super focused on macro economic inputs and their potential outputs.. and tends to ignore or at least not adequately address micro economic issues or cultural impacts), his logic is generally solid, and he is reasonably unbiased (IMO)..

That said.. I completely disagree with him on Iran..

Everyone has been saying Iran will cease to exist as it does today in 5 years.. for the last 45 years (1979)... and yet... here they still stand.. in fact their regional (and in some ways global) influence has actually expanded, despite sanctions, military interventions, etc..

An 8 year all out war with Iraq (where they took numerous ass beatings) didnt break them.. and they share a border with Iraq.. they lost 200K troops during that war and they spent close to $20B pursuing that conflict (1980's money.. that would be close to $1T in todays money)...

They have continually prodded and poked the Israelis as well as the US for 45 years.. and.. still stand defiant.. despite getting their asses handed to them in a number of different ways over the years..

Shy of them pushing the US and Israel as a combined force to commit to an outright invasion of Iran sometime in the next 18 months.. I dont see Iran ceasing to exist as we know it in the next 5 years..

My thought on that was more based on what Israel is doing. You are probably right, but would argue their regional influence is being greatly dimished by the day.

 

[Red Leg]

He didnt become the official nominee until the RNC in July...

But he already had all of the delegates needed to become the nominee on March 11th.. it was 100% impossible for anyone else to become the nominee after that (unless someone, I dunno... assassinated trump... )...

It was also very clear by the end of January that Trump was going to become the nominee... while it was still possible for him to not get to the needed number of delegates, it was already HIGHLY improbable.. and the chances of Haley getting the nod were almost impossible..

Haley didnt drop out until March 6th..

While I completely agree that the way Trump messaged his frustration was not just wrong, it was a political blunder... the fact that he was frustrated is well supported and legitimate however

By February it was clear no one else was going to get the R ticket but trump... no one else was campaigning against him but Haley.. and while it was obvious that Haley wasnt going to win, she didnt drop out (thereby costing Trumps campaign money.. and causing Trump to have to continue to combat Haley rather than getting an earlier focus on knocking Biden/Harris out)...

Nothing was certain until after Super Tuesday, and I have no issue with the second leading candidate in the party to have waited until after those primaries. For instance, on March 2, Trump only had 312 delegates, far less than necessary to win the nomination. At the end of March 5, he had 1225 which effectively gave him the nomination. Haley then suspended her campaign. That is normal politics in any election unless, I suppose, Trump is involved.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Vance specifically stated that they would have Ukraine yield territory and be prevented from joining NATO or EU. That is letting Russia win.

Fair enough but I don't think there is any scenario where Ukraine isn't giving up territory. As it has been mentioned it will end in negotiations one way or another, and think Ukraine going into Kurst as brilliant to assist with those negotiations. Ukraine can't join NATO until there isn't an active conflict, and I dont think Vance has any say in Ukraine joining the EU.

What I hate so much about presidential politics is there is a lot of talk and plans but 99% of those plans require other parties to agree with them. Trump and Harris seem to forget this.

 

[Altitude sickness]

If I remember right it was a Truth social rant that went viral.


She suspended her campaign in March, way before he became the nominee in July.

BTW, it is not “kissing ass” to reach out to rivals after one has been endorsed by them. It is good politics.

Trump ranted that he didn’t want Haley’s voters 6 months ago. My point was some AH posters appear to be thinking these were recent statements and why was he driving voters away.

There are fresh Trump statements to be offended by.

 

[Tanks]

…

There are fresh Trump statements to be offended by.

Yep, Trump is Howard Stern of politics. Don’t know if the “shock jock” persona plays that well outside of the MAGA folks though. Unlike Howard Stern, he needs a greater number of followers to win.

 

[Red Leg]

Trump ranted that he didn’t want Haley’s voters 6 months ago. My point was some AH posters appear to be thinking these were recent statements and why was he driving voters away.

There are fresh Trump statements to be offended by.

I think it lingers because it was as singularly self-destructive political statement that I have seen in my lifetime. Instead of reaching out to embrace all republicans in his “movement,” he chose to reject them out of some sort of self-delusional spite. As a result, almost ten percent of his party hardened their resolve to not support him. If he looses this election by a narrow margin, he will have no one to blame but himself.

 

[John Wasmuth]

 

[Datchew]

I’m still very skeptical of anything the media puts out about what Trump says, they’ve been known to fabricate stuff that just ain’t true……

The funny part is we still have some level of expectation that they would do anything WITHOUT fabrication.

 

[HuntingGold]

Aw c'mon.... we know he won't blame himself.

 

[mdwest]

My thought on that was more based on what Israel is doing. You are probably right, but would argue their regional influence is being greatly dimished by the day.

I agree... I just think history shows us they will bounce back unless a much more definitive action is taken against them than has previously been taken...

 

[Red Leg]

The National Guard should have published this a day sooner, but there is an insatiable desire by any command to make sure of all the facts.

Of course it won't matter at this point for the lunatic far right crowd, but this explanation does actually make a little more sense than to unquestionably accept the assertion that an unmarked black helicopter carried out a deliberate rotor-wash assault on a relief supply staging area.

As I think about it, the explanation tracts pretty close to what someone suggested here .....

Of course, to read the comments section of the tweet is to leave one depressed with regard to the actual level of common sense employed by many these days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843780336616124896

 

[Ridge Runner]

NC is making an attempt.

North Carolina scrubs over 700,000 ineligible voters from rolls in face of another GOP lawsuit | Blaze Media

A number of states are taking significant steps to shore up confidence in the integrity of American elections.

www.theblaze.com

So the 2020 election wasn't rigged.?
States are just now admitting, confirming, the dead, ineligible,{ illegals}, and fraudulent duplicate voting was conducted in the last election.

Maybe Trump and this country can have a more reasonable chance of an honest election.

I'm not holding my breathe.

 

[Ridge Runner]

Let’s elect communists, what can possibly go wrong,,, they only want those black scary rifles don’t ya know

Wonder what part of".....shall not be infringed...." The governor and state representatives don't, are to illiterate to, understand when they were elected and sworn to uphold the Constitution of the United States of America.

Maga lawsuit and grounds for impeachment for failing to uphold and support the Constitution they swore to protect.

 

[PARA45]

"Of the over 747,000 registrants removed, 130,688 were dead; 31,242 moved out of state; 246,311 were inactive; and nearly 300,000 were duplicates."

Shocker!!!!!

 

[John Wasmuth]

Was there any voter fraud?
No none…..
Did you look?
No, there is no reason to look…..
But did you look?
No, there was no voter fraud….. no reason to look…..
But did you look?
No, you’re a racist spreading misinformation…..
and it’s acceptable for way to many people that are supposedly rather intelligent.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

"Of the over 747,000 registrants removed, 130,688 were dead; 31,242 moved out of state; 246,311 were inactive; and nearly 300,000 were duplicates."

Shocker!!!!!

I’m genuinely curious how many of those removed actually “voted” in the last election. Or were counted as valid

 

[Ridge Runner]

And I don't think they can bring a 2A lawsuit as hunting firearms and ammunition is regulated by a number of States (e.g. minimum calibers, no bottlenecked ammo, slugs only for deer etc. etc.).

It's one thing to sensibly regulate how hunting, and fishing, is conducted.Thats the job of US and state Fish and Wildlife Services in protecting and conserving wildlife for future generations. It's quite another to criminalize legal possession, legal gun owners for having or being able to have an otherwise legal firearm and denying an individual the right to hunt based on the way this law is written.

(Sarcasm)
SAPS 520, I mean MAPS (Massachusetts Police Service) FID permit required. Hmm...Wonder if a contribution (bribe) of $40.00USD might help with a pre-approved premit or in getting through the registration process.