Politics

[Wheels]

Did WW3 just start?

Looks like a ton of Iranian missiles are getting through the iron dome.

Seeing a number of videos like this one from the Negev. Probably targeting Israel nuclear facilities in this video.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841166792900669817

 

[Brent in Az]

The world us on the brink of extreme global conflict, and we have idiots like Kamala/ Walz running for office, and a braindead President who is basically MIA.

 

[Wheels]

This was not the October surprise I had on my bingo card. Perhaps it is just the first October surprise.

It would be nice to have a President with some cognitive ability at the moment.

 

[Red Leg]

Did WW3 just start?

Looks like a ton of Iranian missiles are getting through the iron dome.

Seeing a number of videos like this one from the Negev. Probably targeting Israel nuclear facilities in this video.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841166792900669817

I imagine 90-95% of the Iranian missile barrage was successfully engaged. They would not have targeted any for intercept that showed a harmless trajectory. Iron Dome is useless against missiles. It was designed to engage the unguided rockets and drones being fired by Hamas and Hezbollah. They would have been firing at those and any any of either accompanying the ballistic missile attack. Their Arrow and David's Sling air defense missiles are designed for ballistic missile intercept. They are fired one-for-one against incoming targets. David's Sling is roughly analogous to Patriot and Arrow to the new THAAD for exo-atmospheric intercept.

There were also three Arleigh Burke class Aegis BMD capable destroyers in the Eastern Med that I am sure were also engaging targets.

The interesting part will be the Israeli response. Last time they took out the Iranian air defenses around two of their nuclear development sites to make a statement. I still question whether they have a penetrator capable of going that deep to take out the actual facilities or a combat aircraft capable of lifting one that could, but I would be very confident that they will respond. Iran, on the other hand, will look ever weaker after this second likely failed attempt.

The Iranian effort is actually pretty pathetic. They probably fired around 120 missiles (equals their number of mobile launchers). Even if one or two got through to an airbase, the odds of significant damage is pretty slight. Each represents a "dumb" thousand pound bomb on its final trajectory. It would be pure bad luck if it hit a command center, hanger or munitions depot.

 

[sgt_zim]

Iran seems to be doing everything in their power to FAFO.

 

[Wheels]

I imagine 90-95% of the Iranian missile barrage was successfully engaged. Iron Dome is useless against missiles. It was designed to engage the unguided rockets being fired by Hamas and Hezbollah. They would have been firing at those and any drones accompanying the ballistic missile attack. Their Arrow and David's Sling air defense missiles are designed for ballistic missile intercept. They are fired one-for-one against incoming targets. David's Sling is roughly analogous to Patriot and Arrow to the new THAAD for exo-atmospheric intercept.

There were also three Arleigh Burke class Aegis BMD capable destroyers in the Eastern Med that I am sure were also engaging targets.

The interesting part will be the Israeli response. Last time they took out the Iranian air defenses around two of their nuclear development sites to make a statement. I still question whether they have a penetrator capable of going that deep to take out the actual facilities or a combat aircraft capable of lifting one that could, but I would be very confident that they will respond. Iran, on the other hand, will look ever weaker after this second likely failed attempt.

The Iranian effort is actually pretty pathetic. They likely fired around 120 missiles (equals their number of mobile launchers). Even if one or two got through to an airbase, the odds of significant damage is pretty slight. Each represents a "dumb" thousand pound bomb on its final trajectory. It would be pure bad luck if it hit a command center, hanger or munitions depot.

Thanks for the educated opinion.

 

[sgt_zim]

I think it is important to temper such strong feelings with the understanding that many are dealing with quite severe mental illnesses.

The problem is Hollywood and their fellow-travelers seem to be trying to normalize severe mental illness They should be trying to help fix it, not glorify it.

 

[Red Leg]

Looks like a ton of Iranian missiles are getting through the iron dome.

Seeing a number of videos like this one from the Negev. Probably targeting Israel nuclear facilities in this video.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841166792900669817

These look like rockets. A tactical ballistic missile arrives at mach 3-5 depending upon trajectory. These seem to be going far slower. Assuming this is current and Israel, it does look like an area that was not effectively covered by Iron Dome.

Hezbollah rockets joining the attack would account for reports of hundreds of "missiles."

Israel has already reopened its airspace for commercial flights.

 

[observe]

 

[wesheltonj]

. . . Israel has already reopened its airspace for commercial flights.

I'll pass on a commercial flight for now. Thanks for your expert opinion on the rockets and defenses. Not my area of expertise.

 

[deewayne2003]

I think it would be helpful if they and the medical establishment at large would at least acknowledge this.

Well the medical establishment is getting $300K+ for a gender reassignment surgery and that’s not including all the lifelong after care and medications that are needed.

So you would have to convince someone with a mental illness they are wrong and also convince the medical establishment that people are more important than profits……

Good luck with both!

 

[VertigoBE]

So conclusion of the day: the US collective port strike trumps Iranian military might, as far as risk/cost for the West.

 

[VertigoBE]

Well the medical establishment is getting $300K+ for a gender reassignment surgery and that’s not including all the lifelong after care and medications that are needed.

So you would have to convince someone with a mental illness they are wrong and also convince the medical establishment that people are more important than profits……

Good luck with both!

You're not wrong, but "the medical establishment" (apart from the drug companies) still exists of individual doctors, who have sworn the Oath of Hippocrates. I cannot believe they are all doing their jobs, only for monetary gain.

 

[sgt_zim]

You're not wrong, but "the medical establishment" (apart from the drug companies) still exists of individual doctors, who have sworn the Oath of Hippocrates. I cannot believe they are all doing their jobs, only for monetary gain.

I don't believe they're sworn that oath in decades.

 

[Red Leg]

Looks like a ton of Iranian missiles are getting through the iron dome.

Seeing a number of videos like this one from the Negev. Probably targeting Israel nuclear facilities in this video.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841166792900669817

It does look like a lot of impacts in the Negev in the general area of the Nevatim Air Base. Phased array radar can almost instantly provide an impact location for a non-maneuvering ballistic missile which is the Iranian technology. Our Aegis system has the ability to ignore anything that isn't going to hit a critical asset. I do not know if the Israeli system is similar, but would have to assume it is. After the previous attack, I also would have assumed Israel would have upped its capability around its military facilities, but I do not know.

 

[wesheltonj]

You're not wrong, but "the medical establishment" (apart from the drug companies) still exists of individual doctors, who have sworn the Oath of Hippocrates. I cannot believe they are all doing their jobs, only for monetary gain.

I would suggest at least in the USA that’s not the case anymore. Physician practices are being bought up by insurance companies and private equity firms. Those by insurance companies become in-network and those by private equity out of network. Balance Billing is big business.

 

[Red Leg]

Looks like @Wheels initial assessment was more correct than mine. These appear to be incoming ballistics in what would appear to be a saturation attempt of a target. A lot of these are obviously impacting. The next question is effect on target. There seems to be a lot of dispersion. Of one thing I think we can be certain. Israel will be mum about any military damage.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1ftv2fp/air_defense_system_unsuccessfully_trying_to

 

[mdwest]

Something key to note (I think).. is US CENTCOM estimated in 2022 that Iran possesses roughly 3000 ballistic missiles (all ranges included in that number)... many of those 3000 missiles do not have the effective range to be launched at Israel from Iran (but could hypothetically be moved to other locations like Syria, Yemen, etc and then be within striking distance)..

Assume the assessment that Iran launched 180 at Israel today is correct (thats the last news report I read)...

Thats no small number.. its just under 1/16th of their entire stockpile..

IF the attack was effective.. then having 15/16ths of the stockpile left presents a serious threat to Israel... BUT.. every volley they send renders their stockpiles smaller and smaller.. and these arent the sort of things they can replace quickly or effectively..

If the attack was largely thwarted.. knowing that even when Iran throws what is a relatively huge number of its available resources at an attack it can be contained.. that should seriously embolden not just Israel, but every enemy of Iran...

Much like Russia in Ukraine.. Iran with depleted resources and the western world with proven capability to overcome their attacks with minimal damage is a MAJOR victory that will resonate for a very long time..

Its also important to note that Iran is VERY dependent on other countries (specifically Russia and North Korea... but also others) for the materials needed to build missiles, and often times for the missiles themselves (a significant number of Iranian missiles are of North Korean origin for example)..

Well.. Russia really isnt in a position to help them out much right now and has most of its military focus pointed elsewhere.. and while I am sure the NORKS will sell Iran anything it is willing to pay for.. the NORKS have some pretty big orders to fill already in their attempts to support the Russians.. their factories and logistics assets can only handle so much at a time I would think..

 

[deewayne2003]

You're not wrong, but "the medical establishment" (apart from the drug companies) still exists of individual doctors, who have sworn the Oath of Hippocrates. I cannot believe they are all doing their jobs, only for monetary gain.

First off, I 100% agree with your statement; having said that I think you are being a bit naive as to percentage of the human population that is willing to abandon both duty and morals to achieve higher social acceptance and monetary gain.

Just look at how many hideous examples of grotesque plastic surgery abuse are walking around in todays world....

There certainly are doctors willing to stand up and speak the truth of "Do no harm" just like this phycologist.

However if a surgeon stands up to both peer and administration pressure and refuses to complete a procedure that will be irreversible, then there is a stockpile of surgeons who are more than happy sterilize an adolescent for life.... either for social acceptance or financial gain.

Such as this Yale school of medicine professor who is actively pushing this agenda.

 

[VertigoBE]

Something key to note (I think).. is US CENTCOM estimated in 2022 that Iran possesses roughly 3000 ballistic missiles (all ranges included in that number)... many of those 3000 missiles do not have the effective range to be launched at Israel from Iran (but could hypothetically be moved to other locations like Syria, Yemen, etc and then be within striking distance)..

Assume the assessment that Iran launched 180 at Israel today is correct (thats the last news report I read)...

Thats no small number.. its just under 1/16th of their entire stockpile..

IF the attack was effective.. then having 15/16ths of the stockpile left presents a serious threat to Israel... BUT.. every volley they send renders their stockpiles smaller and smaller.. and these arent the sort of things they can replace quickly or effectively..

If the attack was largely thwarted.. knowing that even when Iran throws what is a relatively huge number of its available resources at an attack it can be contained.. that should seriously embolden not just Israel, but every enemy of Iran...

Much like Russia in Ukraine.. Iran with depleted resources and the western world with proven capability to overcome their attacks with minimal damage is a MAJOR victory that will resonate for a very long time..

Its also important to note that Iran is VERY dependent on other countries (specifically Russia and North Korea... but also others) for the materials needed to build missiles, and often times for the missiles themselves (a significant number of Iranian missiles are of North Korean origin for example)..

Well.. Russia really isnt in a position to help them out much right now and has most of its military focus pointed elsewhere.. and while I am sure the NORKS will sell Iran anything it is willing to pay for.. the NORKS have some pretty big orders to fill already in their attempts to support the Russians.. their factories and logistics assets can only handle so much at a time I would think..

I had the same thought. Whether or not if this was 10% of their capabilities, sending close to 200 ballistic missiles without much to show for it means either grave incompetence or that was the intended result. But if it was intended to only be a lightshow, wouldn't 20 ballistic missiles have sufficed?

So grave incompetence or rather a great lack of technical capability. This looks like summer of 2022 all over again. Masks are falling, and instead of bears and lions with claws and teeth we are seeing more and more that it was all bluff.

Interesting times.