Politics

I would add another factor that is sometimes overlooked, although it is important. Among the demands that Putin has voiced and repeatedly repeated is "denazification." It's about changing the ideology that is now the basis of the statehood of Ukraine. I don't know how widely it is known, but in 2019 the UN adopted a "resolution on combating the glorification of Nazism", which was voted against by two countries - Ukraine and the United States. The United States, as I understand it, is simply out of solidarity with Ukraine.
This is an important issue, and the Russians in general would like to resolve it. It was not for nothing that the head of the Russian delegation was Medinsky, the former Minister of Culture. He is from Ukraine, his great-uncle was a teacher of the Russian language and was executed for this by the Ukrainian fascists-Banderits, they publicly cut him into pieces and forbade him to be buried. The flag of the Bandera organization of the UPA is black and red, it often flashes next to the state one, as well as the flag of the Waffen-SS division "Galicia". All this must be eradicated.

There was a question about Shoigu: he is half, by his father, a Tuvan, (Tuvans - if you don't go into details - Mongols). But he was born and raised in the Donbass, the village was recently liberated, and the church where he was baptized.

Mr. Vashper, you are repeating, in a slightly toned-down way, official Russian propaganda. Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia is at war with Ukraine. Russia made this war over absurd accusations. This is a fact. I have visited Ukraine several times in the last few years. The notion that Russian-speaking people were persecuted there is absurd. A very large portion of the Ukrainian population speaks Russian and in Kyiv and Lviv Russian language could be heard everywhere. It is also the most commonly used language amongst the Ukrainian migrants living in Poland.

Poland is now involved in a huge effort to support Ukraine and Ukrainians in military, economic, and humanitarian ways. If your perception is that Poland and Poles are supporting UPA and Bandera followers you must be intoxicated or, and I mean no disrespect, ill. The unthinkable atrocities of the genocide committed by these people against Poles in 1943-44 in Wołyń have not been forgotten. I think Poles would sooner side with Hitler than UPA and Bandera.
 
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Interesting article on the financial pressure on Russia from big corporations around the world.

 
Looks like the Russians, or putin should I say are cranking up their terror tactics on the civilian population....

BBC News - Ukraine: Russia has attacked schools and hospitals, says deputy PM
 
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Looks like most of the international news broadcasters have had to stop reporting in Russia due to the new law just brought in....and the internal non government press are being closed down....

BBC News - War in Ukraine: BBC suspends its journalists' work in Russia
 
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Not sure if this link will work, but it is an interesting clip for a professional soldier to review. This is a 122mm towed battalion (-) that likely was destroyed by counterbattery fire. A constant theme in my comments on this conflict has been the glaring lack of professionalism being displayed by the Russian military leadership - tactical through operational. This 12 seconds speaks volumes.

Some observations and conclusions from an old artilleryman.

This unit was clearly destroyed by counter-battery fire. I should add I walked around several just like this in the days immediately following the Gulf War cease fire that my brigade had destroyed with MLRS fires.

It is a likely a battalion minus. The gun count is difficult but clearly more than a six-gun battery. The unit has either had previous losses, was understrength, or prime movers have broken down leaving guns stranded (my guess).

Field craft is abysmal. It is almost incomprehensible that a towed unit would line up practically hub-to-hub in the open to provide fires in the 21st century. That is criminal leadership on the part of the commander and speaks volumes with respect to the unit and leadership's level of competence and collective training. A US 155mm or 105mm towed battery would be hugging a tree line and widely dispersed.

I see no evidence of ammunition pits which means rounds and, and more importantly, powder charges were likely simply stacked on the ground or sitting on trucks. Good NCO's and gun chiefs make that happen as a matter of unit SOP. However, and as noted in a previous post, the Russian army does not really have a professional NCO corps. The right end of the gun line seems to have suffered the effects of catastrophic secondary explosions.

I can only count four or five prime movers. There would have been one for each gun, and several others carrying additional ammunition and unit supplies. They would have also transported the gun crews and the fire direction team.

The Ukrainians are operating Russian counter battery radars. The most likely scenario is that the towed unit's rounds were picked up by radar, the location was passed to a unit (probably MLRS) and was subjected to a strike. (As an aside, our counterfire brigade typically struck Iraqi units with 18-36 rockets, each of which carried 644 DPICM bomblets). There seems to have been no attempt to save the guns following the strike. The survivors almost certainly simply ran to the still operational trucks that survived and took off.

None of these observations are meant cast aspersion at the individual Russian soldier or his courage. But vignettes like this are piling up in sufficient quantity to draw conclusions about his training, and most importantly, the competence of his leadership. Both appear wanting and Russia's operational performance thus far becomes ever more explicable.
 
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This resolution has been voted on several times. Yes, sometimes Canada voted against (once), as well as Palau and Micronesia. But at the General Assembly in 2019, only two countries were "against".
You are correct they voted against it, and you are correct it was voted on multiple times. I was saying the reason provided for the for the no vote wasn't accurate and lacked context.

The No vote was performed almost exactly because of what Russia is doing today.
 
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Another of these short clips that may just speak volumes. Trains of civilian trucks, buses, etc. marked with the letter "Z" used by much of the deployed Russian force to differentiate their vehicles from Ukrainian units.

It may mean nothing, but one can't help but wonder at the damage being inflicted on the Russian Army's logistics units if civilian vehicles are now being sent to support the offensive.
 
Well, a nuclear deterrent is worthless if one is not willing to use it.
Absolutely. I am sure Putin's analysts have also weighed up the probability that NATO would not even fire a nuke back if they received a hit. You can't deter a bully by cowering.
 

Another of these short clips that may just speak volumes. Trains of civilian trucks, buses, etc. marked with the letter "Z" used by much of the deployed Russian force to differentiate their vehicles from Ukrainian units.

It may mean nothing, but one can't help but wonder at the damage being inflicted on the Russian Army's logistics units if civilian vehicles are now being sent to support the offensive.

Reminds me of the movie "Stripes." The Urban Assault Vehicle!

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1646580309939.png
 

Another of these short clips that may just speak volumes. Trains of civilian trucks, buses, etc. marked with the letter "Z" used by much of the deployed Russian force to differentiate their vehicles from Ukrainian units.

It may mean nothing, but one can't help but wonder at the damage being inflicted on the Russian Army's logistics units if civilian vehicles are now being sent to support the offensive.
That seems awfully desperate doesn’t it?
 
Long but very interesting interview on the Ukraine war

 
Poland to supply jets to Ukraine, US to replace Poland's jets. Either this will help turn the tide in favor of Ukraine, or escalate the hostilities.

 

Not sure if this link will work, but it is an interesting clip for a professional soldier to review. This is a 122mm towed battalion (-) that likely was destroyed by counterbattery fire. A constant theme in my comments on this conflict has been the glaring lack of professionalism being displayed by the Russian military leadership - tactical through operational. This 12 seconds speaks volumes.

Some observations and conclusions from an old artilleryman.

This unit was clearly destroyed by counter-battery fire. I should add I walked around several just like this in the days immediately following the Gulf War cease fire that my brigade had destroyed with MLRS fires.

It is a likely a battalion minus. The gun count is difficult but clearly more than a six-gun battery. The unit has either had previous losses, was understrength, or prime movers have broken down leaving guns stranded (my guess).

Field craft is abysmal. It is almost incomprehensible that a towed unit would line up practically hub-to-hub in the open to provide fires in the 21st century. That is criminal leadership on the part of the commander and speaks volumes with respect to the unit and leadership's level of competence and collective training. A US 155mm or 105mm towed battery would be hugging a tree line and widely dispersed.

I see no evidence of ammunition pits which means rounds and, and more importantly, powder charges were likely simply stacked on the ground or sitting on trucks. Good NCO's and gun chiefs make that happen as a matter of unit SOP. However, and as noted in a previous post, the Russian army does not really have a professional NCO corps. The right end of the gun line seems to have suffered the effects of catastrophic secondary explosions.

I can only count four or five prime movers. There would have been one for each gun, and several others carrying additional ammunition and unit supplies. They would have also transported the gun crews and the fire direction team.

The Ukrainians are operating Russian counter battery radars. The most likely scenario is that the towed unit's rounds were picked up by radar, the location was passed to a unit (probably MLRS) and was subjected to a strike. (As an aside, our counterfire brigade typically struck Iraqi units with 18-36 rockets, each of which carried 644 DPICM bomblets). There seems to have been no attempt to save the guns following the strike. The survivors almost certainly simply ran to the still operational trucks that survived and took off.

None of these observations are meant cast aspersion at the individual Russian soldier or his courage. But vignettes like this are piling up in sufficient quantity to draw conclusions about his training, and most importantly, the competence of his leadership. Both appear wanting and Russia's operational performance thus far becomes ever more explicable.

Well... as a cavalry man I would know nothing about artillery :A Gathering: but I did have Academy class mates who misguidedly joined artillery :E Rofl:, and from the interarm maneuvering I participated in, I shall wholeheartedly agree that the only place and time that would be appropriate for this deployment would be a 21 guns salute on victory parade day...



Another of these short clips that may just speak volumes. Trains of civilian trucks, buses, etc. marked with the letter "Z" used by much of the deployed Russian force to differentiate their vehicles from Ukrainian units.

It may mean nothing, but one can't help but wonder at the damage being inflicted on the Russian Army's logistics units if civilian vehicles are now being sent to support the offensive.


Well again... unless the very unlikely prospect that Russia organized a teleton donation event :A Phone:to help civilian Ukrainians motor out of their country, this lines up perfectly with a paper I found yesterday night that I found fascinating.

1646595850094.png


Since my last professional military exposure to articulated data about the Russian military logistics admittedly dates back from when it was still called the Red Army, it came as a shock to me, and let me open-mouthed in astonishment !?!?!?!?!?

I absolutely recommend the reading because the author, Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin "since 2014, has worked as a modeling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation field for NATO and the U.S. Army, including a tour at the U.S. Army Sustainment Battle Lab, where he led the experimentation scenario team" is a genuine logistics professional, and because his paper is articulated on quantitative data, as opposed to qualitative opinion.

If you do not have the time for the 5 minutes read, allow me - spoiler alert - to give you the conclusion: "The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps."



To give credit where credit is due, Red Leg might be onto something ;), the bear may actually be a lot more emaciated and have lost a lot more of his bite from the good old days when every French, German or American officer could point the Fulda Gap on a map with eyes closed and in a dark room..............................

1646597523162.png


This being said, it is a lot easier for Russia to mobilize civilian trucks than it is for Ukraine to materialize tanks out of thin air, so the outcome is still very much in play, but it also gives a fuller dimension to Putin's anger about Western deliveries of military equipment...
 
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