The number of poors will be on the high rise.
More migrants coming
Shortage of good as mentioned
increment in prices.
The next three year is gonna be Obama all over again.
Frankly, I don't understand what's going on at all. Yes, prices are rising, this is an inevitable consequence of "helicopter money". But why is there a commodity shortage at the same time? With free prices, it cannot be! And what is happening in Europe, it is impossible to understand at all. Why didn't they stock up on fuel before winter? Now it remains to pray that the winter will be warm - it will not be possible to replenish the reserves. How could "dirty" energy sources be destroyed if they don't have a replacement yet? What kind of "green energy", and if it's night, it's dark and there's no wind, then what? There is a website about energy generation in England, where the proportion of different types is shown. So it's not uncommon for times when wind generation is zero. So what?
As a farmer, I don't believe there
is a commodity shortage. What they (USDA) call a shortage is when the world stocks get below a certain level. That level is normally enough to feed the world for 2 1/2 to 3 years....again, according to them. That's what keeps the commodity prices in the tank. Now that level is down to a year or so having had two years of lower yields for various reasons. I think the issue is with shipping more than anything else. I doesn't matter how much of anything is out there, if it can't get to me, it's a big problem.
Inputs for the 2022 season are rising drastically. Besides fuel, fertilizer costs are up 75 to 200%...so far.
No suppliers will contract anything for the coming season at this point as nobody knows where or if it will level off. That's half of the fertilizer problem...the other issue is availability. The price won't matter if I can't get it at all. THEN you'll see shortage.
But it's not just fuel and fertilizer, It's every need we have. Machinery is out a year for most things and parts are scarce for the equipment we run. Manufacturers I've talked to believe it'll be 2 to 3 years before that improves...if all the bullshit stopped now.
So yes, commodity prices are up. For the producer, prices for some crops are finally at a point where there is some return. However, our prices are dictated to us. The sharp rise you see on the stores is not because farmers are out buying yachts and private islands, it's because the middleman is paying (and getting) more to package and ship.
For example, on the high side, if I meet all the prefect grade requirements, I might get $10 for 100lbs of potatoes. So 10 cents/lb. A 5 lb bag of potatoes in a store is roughly $2 to $3, or 40 to 60cents/lb.
You will see these prices continue to rise as increases hit bags, pallets, fuel surcharges, shipping, etc. I will still get 10 cents/cwt...and I have plenty of supply to fill all of my contracts.
The farm is the last stop for these increases...there is no one to pass the costs on to since we do not set the prices. This is the reason the small family farm is nearly extinct, they simply cannot compete anymore since they're no longer able to just inherit the debt-free land that great-grandfather worked so hard to pay off. The inheritance tax eliminated them.
That's my 10 cents on the commodity thing.