Excellent as always and I only disagree with a couple of his assumptions.
He, like many here, seem certain that Trump will work for a conclusion to the war that will justify Ukraine's sacrifice, the West's investment, and not simply further embolden Putin. I have heard absolutely nothing from Trump, Vance, or any of his primary advisors that would lead me to conclude that is the case. In fact, I am not completely certain Trump actually fully understands what our national interests are with respect to Europe and Russia. I am absolutely certain that worries Ukraine and everyone in Europe except perhaps Victor Orban.
Secondly, as long as Russia is trying to defeat Ukraine, it is getting weaker not stronger. No one realizes this more than Putin. I am convinced that Putin sees Trump as his last remaining card. Ukrainian forces have begun retaking areas that were seized over the last nine months. Russia can't even reclaim the ground taken by the UA in Kursk.
Putin needs a deal soon if not now, and it is Ukraine and the West that actually hold the superior negotiating position. I personally have little confidence Trump intends to exploit it even if he were corrected on the facts on the ground. Sometimes leadership is quite a bit more than an Atlantic City real-estate deal.