Politics

[Wishfulthinker580]

I pray that is in fact the course Trump takes. I am not going to do it, but were you to search through these posts, I and several others have suggested that is the most likely negotiated outcome of this conflict barring a Russian or Ukrainian collapse.

I would also hope that is his position with respect to Israel, though I am not sure how Israel will actually react. The US has largely determined the scope and extent of Israeli military actions since Suez in 1956. It will be interesting to see if even Netanyahu really wants to exercise unfettered military action and bear sole responsibility for the outcome.

Post in thread 'Politics'

Sep 13, 2024

JD Vance reveals Trump’s Ukraine plan: let Russia have what it’s taken — The Times and The Sunday Times

Donald Trump could impose a “demilitarised zone” on Ukraine as part of a deal to end the war with Russia if he takes back the White House, his running-mate JD Vance has said. Under the proposal mapped out by the Republican vice-presidential nominee, Trump would force Kyiv to concede vast swathes...

apple.news

Wow, guess Trump’s peace plan is what most have suspected, exactly what Putin wants. Evil wins. I wonder what kind of message this would send to China vis-à-vis Taiwan.

From the article:

I think most people have foreseen this from the beginning. Do you actually believe Crimea was going to be returned to Ukraine? Also, those areas in the south and east have been a problem for quite some time. I think it’s naive to believe that things were going to return to normal after this is over. The way things are escalating I think it’s best...

• Wishfulthinker580

• 

 

[mdwest]

Something for both sides of the aisle to think about....

every person in this pic is a former Democrat..

the leadership of the R party at the federal level in execution is significantly made up of "converts" that, assuming they hold the same values long standing R's do.. says something pretty dramatic about where the "center" currently is vs where it once was.. as well as where the "right" is vs where it once was..

another key thing to pay attention to is.. since 2020 (just 4 years).. there have been 8 R's across state legislatures that have switched parties and become D's... and there have been 24 D's in the various state legislatures that have switched parties and become R's... (a 3:1 ratio)... that is not insignificant..

5 D's at the state legislature level have also become Independents.. and 2 others have left the D party to join "3rd party" groups..

vs.. 13 R's leaving the R party to become Independents.. and 2 leaving to join "3rd party" groups..

thats a whole lot of flip flopping... most of which takes the politician back to where they believe the "center" should be... or takes them to a place where they dont have to worry about the fringe of their party sitting over their heads like the Sword of Damocles..

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Something for both sides of the aisle to think about....

View attachment 648156

every person in this pic is a former Democrat..

the leadership of the R party at the federal level in execution is significantly made up of "converts" that, assuming they hold the same values long standing R's do.. says something pretty dramatic about where the "center" currently is vs where it once was.. as well as where the "right" is vs where it once was..

another key thing to pay attention to is.. since 2020 (just 4 years).. there have been 8 R's across state legislatures that have switched parties and become D's... and there have been 24 D's in the various state legislatures that have switched parties and become R's... (a 3:1 ratio)... that is not insignificant..

5 D's at the state legislature level have also become Independents.. and 2 others have left the D party to join "3rd party" groups..

vs.. 13 R's leaving the R party to become Independents.. and 2 leaving to join "3rd party" groups..

thats a whole lot of flip flopping... most of which takes the politician back to where they believe the "center" should be... or takes them to a place where they dont have to worry about the fringe of their party sitting over their heads like the Sword of Damocles..

Looks like the center is farther left than it used to be. Especially on cultural and social issues. Refusal to touch entitlements etc.. And the left has gone farther left.

 

[Red Leg]

Post in thread 'Politics'

Sep 13, 2024

JD Vance reveals Trump’s Ukraine plan: let Russia have what it’s taken — The Times and The Sunday Times

Donald Trump could impose a “demilitarised zone” on Ukraine as part of a deal to end the war with Russia if he takes back the White House, his running-mate JD Vance has said. Under the proposal mapped out by the Republican vice-presidential nominee, Trump would force Kyiv to concede vast swathes...

apple.news

Wow, guess Trump’s peace plan is what most have suspected, exactly what Putin wants. Evil wins. I wonder what kind of message this would send to China vis-à-vis Taiwan.

From the article:

I think most people have foreseen this from the beginning. Do you actually believe Crimea was going to be returned to Ukraine? Also, those areas in the south and east have been a problem for quite some time. I think it’s naive to believe that things were going to return to normal after this is over. The way things are escalating I think it’s best...

• Wishfulthinker580

• 

You will find this in your comments to that posting.

This war will indeed end in negotiations. If for no other reason, neither power is strong enough to dictates peace on the steps of the other's capital. But the nature of the conclusion of those negotiations will either embolden Putin and his successors or restrain them. Were we to do what Vance naively suggests (and I must assume he is parroting his future boss), we will have handed Russia nearly a total victory in this conflict.

The current estimates are that Russia is spending approximately 7-9% of its GDP on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, the US is spending roughly 3% of its GDP on its total defense budget and .35% on Ukraine. Like the Cold War, this is unsustainable for Russia and in spite of all the handringing from the far right, we could keep it up for decades and simply grow a stronger military infrastructure in the process.

I have personally stated here several times that the most likely outcome (assuming the Vance/Trump "art" of a negotiated deal is not forced upon NATO), is that Russia retains what it holds in Luhansk and Donetsk and withdraws from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Crimea will be the geographic sticking point. I also suspect the West will insist upon Ukrainian self-determination with respect to EU and NATO membership. After all, Putin's angst over an extended direct border with NATO went out the window with Finland joining the alliance. Again, a strategic surrender by a Trump administration would spell the end of such a positive outcome.

Following the seizure of Crimea, the only fighting prior to '22 was occuring in portions of Luhansk and Donetsk - an effort through which Russia was attempting to destabilize the Ukrainian government. The lack of success of that strategy can be measured by Russian actions in February of 2022.

Simply forcing Ukraine to give up what Russia has claimed to have seized should be a non-starter. In addition to Donetsk, Russia is claiming Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhya. It only occupies portions of any of these provinces. Kherson and Zaporizhzhya in particular voted overwhelmingly in the 1991 plebiscite to be independent from Russia. That would be giving Putin victory rather than a face saving way out of this mess he creatted.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

You will find this in your comments to that posting.

This war will indeed end in negotiations. If for no other reason, neither power is strong enough to dictates peace on the steps of the other's capital. But the nature of the conclusion of those negotiations will either embolden Putin and his successors or restrain them. Were we to do what Vance naively suggests (and I must assume he is parroting his future boss), we will have handed Russia nearly a total victory in this conflict.

The current estimates are that Russia is spending approximately 7-9% of its GDP on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, the US is spending roughly 3% of its GDP on its total defense budget and .35% on Ukraine. Like the Cold War, this is unsustainable for Russia and in spite of all the handringing from the far right, we could keep it up for decades and simply grow a stronger military infrastructure in the process.

I have personally stated here several times that the most likely outcome (assuming the Vance/Trump "art" of a negotiated deal is not forced upon NATO), is that Russia retains what it holds in Luhansk and Donetsk and withdraws from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Crimea will be the geographic sticking point. I also suspect the West will insist upon Ukrainian self-determination with respect to EU and NATO membership. After all, Putin's angst over an extended direct border with NATO went out the window with Finland joining the alliance. Again, a strategic surrender by a Trump administration would spell the end of such a positive outcome.

Following the seizure of Crimea, the only fighting prior to '22 was occuring in portions of Luhansk and Donetsk - an effort through which Russia was attempting to destabilize the Ukrainian government. The lack of success of that strategy can be measured by Russian actions in February of 2022.

Simply forcing Ukraine to give up what Russia has claimed to have seized should be a non-starter. In addition to Donetsk, Russia is claiming Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhya. It only occupies portions of any of these provinces. Kherson and Zaporizhzhya in particular voted overwhelmingly in the 1991 plebiscite to be independent from Russia. That would be giving Putin victory rather than a face saving way out of this mess he creatted.

Are you still of the opinion that NATO membership is on the table for Ukraine? Seems like that may be a bridge too far for Putin

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

On the topic of wild nominee picks. Seems like the 3d chess argument is what conservatives are running with. Seems like a monumental waste of time to me

 

[CJW]

Looks like the center is farther left than it used to be. Especially on cultural and social issues. Refusal to touch entitlements etc.. And the left has gone farther left.

It's still taboo, aka political suicide, to take too much of a stance on those topics.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

It's still taboo, aka political suicide, to take too much of a stance on those topics.

Yea I’m hopeful but I think it’s too late to put the genie back in the bottle on a lot of things

 

[mdwest]

Are you still of the opinion that NATO membership is on the table for Ukraine? Seems like that may be a bridge too far for Putin

Im definitely not an expert on NATO or Ukraine.. but I think that might be too far for Putin if we really want an end to the conflict..

He is going to have to "sell" a Russian victory to his people.. he can walk away from any/all territory Russia has taken and still send a convincing message if the story leads with "we told them that NATO was something we wouldnt allow.. and they are no longer considering NATO an option for Ukraine.. we win!"..

If he has to go back and tell the Russian people that they have lost a couple of hundred thousand of their sons, a couple of billion dollars in equipment, and that Ukraine is going to be a NATO member next year.. but look! we get to keep a bunch of rubble piles that used to be cities, and absorb a fairly substantial population that doesnt really want to be Russian!"... I'd guess his days left in power would be significantly reduced..

All that said.. Im not sure Ukraine needs NATO that much for the time being.. Assume Russia withdraws and they figure out some sort of peace agreement... Russia I would imagine has learned a pretty substantial lesson over the last few years.. The Ukrainians will fight back.. Europe will support them in fighting back.. it will cost us billions upon billions of rubles.. we'll loose a lot of sons.. and our military will get set back a couple of decades again if we try this another time...

Were I Ukraine, my starting position for negotiations would be 1) Leave our country 2) Dont come back 3) We're joining NATO 4) Go Fuck Yourself if you dont like it....

When the Russians pushed back, my BAFO would be "1, and 2 stand.. we'll drop 3.. and we can just forget about #4 and pretend like were friends.."... and both sides get to claim a "victory"...

 

[Red Leg]

Are you still of the opinion that NATO membership is on the table for Ukraine? Seems like that may be a bridge too far for Putin

I don't think EU or NATO will happen immediately. Ukraine will have to get its fiscal house in order following the war to meet EU membership requirements - though looking at Romania and Hungary, that should be viable and reasonably quick.

With respect to NATO, what I think should and will happen are probably two different things. From my perspective, the West should not give any regard to what Putin thinks is too far. After all, it was his and only his strategic blunder that added Sweden and Finland to NATO creating a NATO lake out of the Baltic and giving Russia an 850 mile long direct border with NATO in hiking distance of St. Petersburg. That rather obviates the whole buffer argument rather decisively.

However, what I think will happen is a moratorium on Ukraine NATO membership for X number of years as part of a deal. However, should that happen, Ukraine needs to be offered some sort of bi or multilateral defense agreement that protects it from being victimized in five to ten years by a rearmed Russia. I personally think the cleanest and least dangerous way to accomplish that and protect US interests is to simply bring them into NATO.

One other point worth thinking about. I would be surprised if at some point in the next few years that Ukraine, somewhat like Israel, doesn't publicly admit or deny the fact that it has nuclear weapons. Ukraine has vast resources to generate weapons grade plutonium through its nuclear power plants and the scientific capacity to easily build basic devices like obliterated Nakasaki. It managed large numbers on its territory through the Cold War. Who could blame them?

 

[cwpayton]

@Field28 Lincoln did not start the Civil War.

we cannot we shall not we should not refight the civil war of 1862, we have more current events to dispute

 

[Tundra Tiger]

"Were I Ukraine, my starting position for negotiations would be 1) Leave our country 2) Dont come back 3) We're joining NATO 4) Go Fuck Yourself if you dont like it...."

@mdwest... You missed your calling sir. There should be a diplomatic role in your future. LOVE that response!

 

[cwpayton]

Looks like Gaetz might be done…

Trump Pick Matt Gaetz Accused of Participating in Up to 10 Drug-Fueled Orgies — The Daily Beast

A lawyer for two accusers of the Trump attorney general nominee is pledging to spill the beans.

apple.news

nice that they hold the republicans to a higher standard than dems , the lawyers , and the big tv preachers, but on these kind of things it can get real ugly real fast, like let him who is without sin cast the first stone, if I were Gatz I would just cry reproductive rights , makes sense if you can kill babies for repo rights then you can have a roman orgy or rape , totally normal in their world. I regress. anyway if they could get that woman who framed Niel Gorsuch, ah Christine Ford to testify it would carry much more weight since her incredible memory is well established on sworn testimony.

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

Enlighten us. What political benefit to Democrats would there be? Election is over.

Keeping in mind that I support Ukraine, I can see the possibility that this is a last minute effort for Biden and his administration to shore up their legacy. If Trump pushes for a negotiated peace, this could potentially put Ukraine in a slightly better bargaining position.

I’m a bit cynical in regards to Biden’s support of Ukraine, which has been restrained. I feel that allowing missiles to be used against targets in Russia should have been done earlier but he’s been trying to avoid an escalation during an election year. Now he’s on his way out and making any potential escalation a Trump problem probably doesn’t seem as big of a worry to him.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

we cannot we shall not we should not refight the civil war of 1862, we have more current events to dispute

Agreed, but I didn't bring up the subject. Another person posted an incorrect statement and I simply corrected him.

 

[cwpayton]

nice that they hold the republicans to a higher standard than dems , the lawyers , and the big tv preachers, but on these kind of things it can get real ugly real fast, like let him who is without sin cast the first stone, if I were Gatz I would just cry reproductive rights , makes sense if you can kill babies for repo rights then you can have a roman orgy or rape , totally normal in their world. I regress. anyway if they could get that woman who framed Niel Gorsuch, ah Christine Ford to testify it would carry much more weight since her incredible memory is well established on sworn testimony.

I would like to see the house report on GATZ and also on the JFK ASSASINATION and also the 9/11 commission report that is classified and highly sensitive. and the George Floyd murder/ overdose death, but I guess there isn.t one

 

[cwpayton]

That is true, but I must have missed it. How many of those did he launch on the many occasions he threatened their use?

He did test a nuke missile but it exploded at lift off as i recall

 

[Wheels]

On the topic of wild nominee picks. Seems like the 3d chess argument is what conservatives are running with. Seems like a monumental waste of time to me

I don't think it's a monumental waste of time. It is using the Constitution to allow Trump to get the lieutenants he wants to lead his administration.

I am not an attorney nor am I a constitutional scholar. I am just a simple man who has read the Constitution a few times. It seems clearly written in the Constitution that Trump can adjourn Congress in Section 3. In Section 2 the President can make appointments that are good through the end of the session. In the case of Gaetz, that may be all Trump needs of him, destroy the political establishment within the agency hierarchy, allow the Inspector General to review the NSD, move most employees that remain out of the District and into field offices, declassify about 40-50 cases (Russia Gate, General Flynn set up, Not allowing Acosta to prosecute Epstein, Epstein's death, Hunters laptop, etc.) , and start prosecutions of DOJ and FBI officials who have committed crimes.

Article II Executive Branch​

• Section 3​

  
  
  He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.
  
  
  
  
  
  

• Section 2​

  The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.
  He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.
  
  The President shall have Power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate, by granting Commissions which shall expire at the End of their next Session

 

[Red Leg]

He did test a nuke missile but it exploded at lift off as i recall

We test ours all the time. As a rule, they work as advertised. The most recent was less than two weeks ago.

US Launches Minuteman ICBM With Three Test Warheads

The U.S. launched a Minuteman III ICBM on Nov. 5., in an important test of the weapon's ability to strike targets with multiple warheads.

www.airandspaceforces.com

 

[Hunt anything]

Money plain and simple. The party that claims to be the party of peace has always been the party of war. If you go back to the civil war, all but two wars were started by Democrats. Lincoln and W were anomalies. Eisenhower warned us about this!

Eisenhower was the first to send advisors into Vietnam in the 50’s if I remember correctly.