Politics

[Hunter4752001]

Polls showing a movement to one candidate or the other in the last few days may be less relevant than in previous times. Over 77 million votes have already been cast and therefore won't be influenced by last minute trends.

 

[sgt_zim]

If the voting percentage is 55% women, go to bed Kamala is the next president. If 50/50, go to bed Trump is the next president.

Based on the last couple election cycles, that's probably going to depend on which women vote.

Married women broke 5 : 4 for GOP in 2020/22, I believe (same as single men). Married men broke 3 : 2 for the GOP.

Single women broke 7 : 3 for the dems.

 

[fourfive8]

I do the grocery shopping. Use to spend $150 for a week's worth. Now it's $240+. That's 60% in four years. More like Slidenomics than Bidenomics. I swear listening to these Dems talk is like watching an episode of the Twilight Zone. What fkn planet do they live on.

Exactly. No matter how they attempt to lead you to believe otherwise, posts and reaction posts in these political debates involving 2 choices, it’s easy to identify who is on which side. Also easy to flush out those who rely on the corrupt mainstream media news sources for info and talking points as they will repeat them as certainly as the sun rises in the east. This happens even though they attempt to hide it. In the heat of the moment, the use of these talking points will slip out. Watch for them

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[BSO Dave]

If you expect Trump to somehow engineer deflation if he's elected, you'll be sorely disappointed, especially with his stupid tariff ideas.

I'm sure it's a great disappointment to the Trump crowd, but the economy ain't doing badly right now. I'm not convinced that'll continue, and I expect Harris will get blamed for the recession if it happens, whilst if it's Trump you'll blame 'circumstances outside his control'.

In all honesty, I don't really think that whoever is president for 4 years really has a great deal of influence on economic performance, much as they like to claim they (or their opponent) do.

Your charts and graphs neglect to reflect some very critical variables that you seem to be forgetting (or ignoring) in your assessment of what Trump brings to the table economically... Trump was not, and is not like any POTUS before him... He is a businessman that ran the country like a business, which it is in all reality...

First of all, the 22% average inflation spike we saw in inflation over the last 3.5 years was a self-inflicted wound that didn't need to occur in the first place had we had a competent government running things... Secondly, 2-3% historical annual inflation does not have to be "normal", nor does it have to be acceptable... Under Trump, Inflation was on the way down from your historical averages (1.76% in 2019 and 1.23% in 2020 before Covid), and Trump policies were the reason...

Trumps across the board tax cuts, massive business deregulation, stability abroad, and the most pro-energy policies in the history of the U.S. directly facilitated that... Unfortunately, Covid, and his inability to continue his policies into a second term ended the trends toward record growth, record low inflation, and eventual reduction in the deficit... The real effects of the Trump tariffs remain to be seen... They must have been "stupid" because they were essentially the only economic policies left in place by the Brandon Administration which is only capable of stupid...! Sarcasm, aside, as I have stated here previously, it's not necessarily the tariff that is necessary, but the threat of a tariff to get the desired results... Trump loves to use these threats when negotiating because he is one of the very few POTUS' in our history that will carry out the threat if necessary...

If Trump assumes office, energy prices across the board will fall from the speculation alone and continue to fall significantly once he opens the massive restrictions that have been installed in the name of the "green new scam" to destroy the fossil fuel industry... That, in and of itself, will be a huge economic relief to the American people struggling with their gas, electric, and heating bills with energy costs being one of the most significant factors driving any economy...

Main point being anyone who thinks this recent dip in the rate of inflation, or a solid stock market is in any way related to the sound economic policies of this current Administration is living in a fantasy land... And, if you think Kackala has a clue on how to run a world economy, you should immediately choke yourself...

 

[BSO Dave]

Single women broke 7 : 3 for the dems.

I think you meant to say single, childless, cat ladies...

 

[Dirtdart]

Now I am very confused.

The attachment is a painting of the original St. George.

 

[sgt_zim]

I think you meant to say single, childless, cat ladies...

Yep. LivingTheDream is spot on - without the childless cat lady vote, DJT wins in a landslide. I'm reading that as many as 15 or 20% of black males are walking away from the dem plantation, at least for this cycle. Could be higher - if there's a group of "shy" Trump voters, it would be black men.

If the other voting patterns hold up, Trump wins somewhere around 55% of the popular vote.

 

[Hunt anything]

Had a friend send a good analogy last night.

“It feels like the whole country is waiting on a pregnancy test results. To see if we’re having a healthy baby boy or the daughter of Satan”

 

[Hogpatrol]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that people still vote with their pocketbooks.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Yep. LivingTheDream is spot on - without the childless cat lady vote, DJT wins in a landslide. I'm reading that as many as 15 or 20% of black males are walking away from the dem plantation, at least for this cycle. Could be higher - if there's a group of "shy" Trump voters, it would be black men.

If the other voting patterns hold up, Trump wins somewhere around 55% of the popular vote.

I believe that number amongst black males is accurate, and I'm pretty sure internal polling is showing as much, since the Democrat aligned PACs were running ads saying that after the election your vote, i.e. who you voted for is public information.

The popular vote is extremely hard to predict given there are numerous super blue areas where Republicans dont even bother to vote. So there is a big discrepancy in places like California and New York, which is why many pundits/pollsters say Kamala has to win the popular vote by at least 2.5% to have any shot in the electoral college.

 

[Alistair]

Real inflation is at 20% or more over the last four years. I had an alternator go south in my Silverado. Returned it for a warranted replacement. I paid $143 for it 9/22, cost now, 11/01 is $201, My calculator pegs that at 40%. I believe most anyone with a half a brain doesn't buy the governments CPI.

That is what the CPI rate says, yes.

22.4% Jan 2020 - today as reported.

Actual impact seems to depend a lot on personal situation.

For example, housing is a part of the CPI calculation. Rent on the same apartment I was renting in October 2021 has 'only' increased by 6.5% up to today, so if rent is a big part of your monthly spend (which it is for many), your inflation impact is less. If it isn't (which it is not for most on here), you don't have a very large, low inflation line item of your monthly budget, so your overall inflation impact is higher.

Median house price by contrast has changed by 27.78% 2020-2024, so if you're in a position where you're saving to buy property, you're in worse shape. If you already have a fully owned home you're actually also in slightly worse share as your inflation item is property tax which also goes up with value. HOWEVER, if you're paying a locked in mortgage, that'll show 0% inflation, so again, you have a very large, 0% inflation line item pulling down your 'average perceived inflation'.

Worth remembering that the situations 'renting, or paying down a mortgage' accurately described the life of roughly 75% of US households...

Food seems to vary. Seems some people have seen a lot of impact and are claiming more like 60%, but looking over my own monthly spend tracker, I'm up about 26% since 10/21, so it seems to depends on what you're buying and perhaps where you are / where you shop.

Gas inflation is now averaging 39% 2020-2024, so that's defo above CPI, but it is coming down.

Car and house insurance seem to be up about 50% over the period. So that's a lot.

For my own situation, I find the CPI numbers to be pretty accurate. I rented through Feb 2022, then I locked in a mortgage which I paid off in 2024. During that period, roughly 50% of my monthly 'budgeted' spend was logging 0% inflation (mortgage payments), whilst the other half was trending at about 40%, so 20% overall. If you didn't have a mortgage rate or rent on your budget, you'd see 40%, and might think the CPI is way off.

Other factors which may reduce 'seen CPI' might be student loans on a fixed rate, which again have basically 0% inflation, and account for significant proportions of monthly budge for many.

As for if wages are matching these bumps, I think the best answer is 'it depends'.

For the very wealthy, it probably is. Most of your income is likely to be investment income, and inflation is doing a good job of bumping S&P500 performance.

For the very poor, it probably is. You've no savings of note to depreciate away, and if you're working an hourly minimum job, you're seeing very substantial increases in hourly wage.

Average US minimum wage change approx. 20% 2020-2024.

Actual increase in hourly worker rates (construction industry to Q4 2023):

Both keeping track with inflation.

However, the ones missing out are the middle classes, especially the upper-middle classes..

These folks (which are 'us' in many cases) are typically working jobs which are salaried and tend to be in more secure professions where they don't move jobs as much. Most of their income still comes from the day job, so S&P500 performance, whilst definitely important, is less so than it is for the very wealthy. We all know you get better pay rises taking a new position somewhere else than staying in your current role and taking the pay increase, especially in times of high inflation, so people in secure careers where they aren't moving jobs often, if at all, are likely to be in the worst situation.

Here's a break down of wage growth 2019-2023 by earning group. Add roughly another 5% to these figures for 2024, at least for low and low/mid. Maybe 2-3% for mid - high.

 

[Certus]

Whose pay increases kept up? The missus and I both earn nice 6-figure salaries. Without having made adjustments to our spending, our saving/investment would be suffering relative to where we were 4 years ago. The one thing keeping us within spitting distance of where we were 4 years ago is that we both work remotely. If not, I'd probably have a new truck note (my 2013 F150 has 140K miles on it, with only putting about 6K miles/year on it in the last 4 years) + $400/month in additional fuel + $15/day in tolls to get to my office.

By any standard, we are well off, and we're feeling the pinch. I can't imagine having to slog through this shit where I was 15 years ago.

You’re feeling the pinch when your partner and you are both on 6 figures? Imagine how the average Joe is then.
My wife and I aren’t even on 6 figures combined but are getting along ok. We don’t buy new cars (we have 1 to share), don’t use credit cards, bought one of the cheapest houses in town. Sure, we can’t afford to invest just yet, but we’re getting by ok and it hasn’t really felt like “a pinch” yet. Maybe that’s because it’s how we’ve always lived, I dunno.
Not a dig at you either, it just boggles my mind when people I’d regard as high earners say they’re feeling the economy.

 

[sgt_zim]

I believe that number amongst black males is accurate, and I'm pretty sure internal polling is showing as much, since the Democrat aligned PACs were running ads saying that after the election your vote, i.e. who you voted for is public information.

The popular vote is extremely hard to predict given there are numerous super blue areas where Republicans dont even bother to vote. So there is a big discrepancy in places like California and New York, which is why many pundits/pollsters say Kamala has to win the popular vote by at least 2.5% to have any shot in the electoral college.

We shall see. Even with the massive blue votes and the stay-at-home voters in CA and NY, DJT still garnered what..48% of the popular vote last time?

 

[Brent in Az]

Remember.....vote early, vote often.

Need to beat the Dems at their own game....lol

 

[sgt_zim]

You’re feeling the pinch when your partner and you are both on 6 figures? Imagine how the average Joe is then.
My wife and I aren’t even on 6 figures combined but are getting along ok. We don’t buy new cars (we have 1 to share), don’t use credit cards, bought one of the cheapest houses in town. Sure, we can’t afford to invest just yet, but we’re getting by ok and it hasn’t really felt like “a pinch” yet. Maybe that’s because it’s how we’ve always lived, I dunno.
Not a dig at you either, it just boggles my mind when people I’d regard as high earners say they’re feeling the economy.

That's why I said I couldn't imagine having to deal with this 15 years ago when I wasn't in the financial shape I'm in now. If I weren't concerned about growing my RE portfolio and just spent whatever I made, I wouldn't be feeling the pinch. We're certainly not going into debt to continue our lifestyle. But neither do we do the things we did 4 years ago, like eating out once or twice a week.

Other than the mortgage on our house, we have no personal debt.

I drive a 2013 F150, the missus drives a 2015 MKZ. Both paid for.

 

[Alistair]

Your charts and graphs neglect to reflect some very critical variables that you seem to be forgetting (or ignoring) in your assessment of what Trump brings to the table economically... Trump was not, and is not like any POTUS before him... He is a businessman that ran the country like a business, which it is in all reality...

First of all, the 22% average inflation spike we saw in inflation over the last 3.5 years was a self-inflicted wound that didn't need to occur in the first place had we had a competent government running things... Secondly, 2-3% historical annual inflation does not have to be "normal", nor does it have to be acceptable... Under Trump, Inflation was on the way down from your historical averages (1.76% in 2019 and 1.23% in 2020 before Covid), and Trump policies were the reason...

Trumps across the board tax cuts, massive business deregulation, stability abroad, and the most pro-energy policies in the history of the U.S. directly facilitated that... Unfortunately, Covid, and his inability to continue his policies into a second term ended the trends toward record growth, record low inflation, and eventual reduction in the deficit... The real effects of the Trump tariffs remain to be seen... They must have been "stupid" because they were essentially the only economic policies left in place by the Brandon Administration which is only capable of stupid...! Sarcasm, aside, as I have stated here previously, it's not necessarily the tariff that is necessary, but the threat of a tariff to get the desired results... Trump loves to use these threats when negotiating because he is one of the very few POTUS' in our history that will carry out the threat if necessary...

If Trump assumes office, energy prices across the board will fall from the speculation alone and continue to fall significantly once he opens the massive restrictions that have been installed in the name of the "green new scam" to destroy the fossil fuel industry... That, in and of itself, will be a huge economic relief to the American people struggling with their gas, electric, and heating bills with energy costs being one of the most significant factors driving any economy...

Main point being anyone who thinks this recent dip in the rate of inflation, or a solid stock market is in any way related to the sound economic policies of this current Administration is living in a fantasy land... And, if you think Kackala has a clue on how to run a world economy, you should immediately choke yourself...

Trump had 4 years in office.

If he was actually radically different to all previous presidents, then why did he perform almost exactly the same on every metric?

He held unemployment at exactly the same level as Obama had them at in 2016. He held inflation at exactly the same mean level as Obama. He grew GDP at exactly the same rate as Obama. He increased US national debt FASTER than Obama.

To quote 'Moneyball', "If he's a good hitter, than why doesn't he hit good?"

He certainly said all the right things, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

To your last point, on that we agree 100%, I just take that statement to it's logical conclusion: stock market performance, inflation, unemployment, GDP growth are almost 100% out of the hands of ANY Administration. It's a free market, government regulation doesn't have much influence compared to external facts such as COVID, or recessions, or loss of consumer confidence. That's demonstrated pretty well in the data; if administration did matter, we'd see measurable differences between D & R terms, and we don't.

 

[LivingTheDream]

You’re feeling the pinch when your partner and you are both on 6 figures? Imagine how the average Joe is then.
My wife and I aren’t even on 6 figures combined but are getting along ok. We don’t buy new cars (we have 1 to share), don’t use credit cards, bought one of the cheapest houses in town. Sure, we can’t afford to invest just yet, but we’re getting by ok and it hasn’t really felt like “a pinch” yet. Maybe that’s because it’s how we’ve always lived, I dunno.
Not a dig at you either, it just boggles my mind when people I’d regard as high earners say they’re feeling the economy.

I am pretty sure I fall under the high earner group, and there is a pinch but I am guessing it is a bit different. You mention not making investments which is where I feel like my "pinch" comes into play. I am continuing my investments and invest strategy as before inflation, I dont feel investments are disposable income but rather what I need to do first to insure my long term stability. My goal is to maximize these so I feel a pinch or at least to maximize my budget. So if groceries are up, and home insurance is up, and property taxes are up, this impacts my disposable income and put pressure on my overall invest strategy, or minimizes my disposable income. Not sure if that makes sense.

It is a bit of the issue I have with the FIRE lifestyle, is they live below their means with the idea to retire early, the issue being they have to maintain that lifestyle and they can't dip into their investments. I just don't understand the point of living like you have no money so you can have money.

 

[LivingTheDream]

We shall see. Even with the massive blue votes and the stay-at-home voters in CA and NY, DJT still garnered what..48% of the popular vote last time?

I believe you are right. Obama won 2008 with 52.9%, I think that might be the high water mark for any election going forward.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Trump had 4 years in office.

If he was actually radically different to all previous presidents, then why did he perform almost exactly the same on every metric?

He held unemployment at exactly the same level as Obama had them at in 2016. He held inflation at exactly the same mean level as Obama. He grew GDP at exactly the same rate as Obama. He increased US national debt FASTER than Obama.

To quote 'Moneyball', "If he's a good hitter, than why doesn't he hit good?"

He certainly said all the right things, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

To your last point, on that we agree 100%, I just take that statement to it's logical conclusion: stock market performance, inflation, unemployment, GDP growth are almost 100% out of the hands of ANY Administration. It's a free market, government regulation doesn't have much influence compared to external facts such as COVID, or recessions, or loss of consumer confidence. That's demonstrated pretty well in the data; if administration did matter, we'd see measurable differences between D & R terms, and we don't.

I would disagree with this with the caveat that COVID messed everything up. US debt was still increasing but at lower percentage than in the Obama years, with one exception the 2012 to 2013 years. Inflation was less in 2019 going into 2020 than in the later Obama years.

The metric that is missing in the above analysis is real wage growth, which was increasing a pretty high rate especially when compared to Biden years. Using the baseball terms, this would be batting average with runner in scoring position. Meaning the hits had a bigger impact. I think this is why people say the Trump economy was better because they felt it.