Alistair
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- May 25, 2018
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Actually, it is true.This is actually not true. Social security has solvency issues because congress keeps robbing it. At nominal yields they should have a surplus. If they had let me invest my contributions over the past 40+ years I would have far more in savings than I will ever realize in payments.
People imagine social security as being like a 401k. Paying into a big pot of money which is then held in bonds or whatever for you to pull back out of later. But it's not a case of you pay in your monies, the funds sit around for 50 years appreciating interest, then you get to draw down the same money in retirement.
If it did work like that, there would be no issue in people being able to simply 'opt out', like you can choose not to pay into a 401k.
You can't do that, because you're not paying in to get your money back. Instead, your contribution is buying a service contract; the right to future access to someone else's money if you remain a loyal subscriber for X years. It is not a bank, or an investment vehicle. It is, by a very literal definition, a Ponzi scheme.
Long and the short of it, you paid your social security contributions, so your parents generation could have a good retirement. The money some of you draw for social security pensions today comes out of the income from your kids 2024 social security contributions, not the money you paid in 40 years ago. 'Your' money is no longer on the balance sheet, it was paid out long ago to cover those checks your parents drew in 1984.
But this scheme only works if the ratio of 'working age people' to 'retirees' remains favorable. If you starting having more and more retirees (ie higher outgoings), and less and less people paying contributions (ie reduced income), the entire house of cards collapses because there simply isn't enough money coming in to fulfill the deal previous payees entered into. Again, major Ponzi scheme vibes here.
We're already seeing that with people living longer and the increasing challenge of maintaining the current outgoings that results. Either you make pensions worse, or you go further into debt as a nation trying to ignore the problem. Probably, you do a bit of both, depending on if it's an R sponsored 'solution' or a D sponsored 'solution'.
That's the game we're playing now... and a declining population with increasingly top heavy demographics will make it even worse.