Politics

[PARA45]

I just can't wrap my head around this, and trust me, I've tried.

Let's look at what Brandon has done to our country and continues to do in less than four years. Now, since we know what he is doing, we can all assume he will continue to follow the same road unless we take both Senate & House of Rep. What he is doing and has done to our nation can't be good, and I don't believe we can endure another 4 years of the same. So, we are willing to risk another four years of this, because "we believe" Trump is not going to do anything this time around.

I get it, Trump is a narcissist, a self-centered a$$hole, and whatever name we can come up. His mouth is his biggest downfall. However, politicians on both sides of the aisles don't give a sh*t about any of us, or what we say and argue about here. They are going to say what the masses want to hear, and then do the opposite. Do you guys remember Brandon saying "If you don't vote for me, you are not black". Well, I'm sure that didn't stop the African American community from voting for him.

I am not a Trump loyalist, or follower, and I can see with my own eyes what he is. On the same token, I saw what he did while he was president, and can see what this one is doing too. My Dollar went a hell of a lot further than it did now. My TSP (41K) was a lot healthier than it is today. I never paid over $100 to fill up my truck, etc, etc, etc. Was he perfect? Well, I don't believe a single president has been perfect.

When the time comes, I will vote for what I believe it is best for our country, and for me. Oh, and it will not be for Brandon. Not trying to convince anyone to vote, but remember how many countries have elections, and those votes don't mean squat. We are blessed that we have the right to vote, and we have never experienced having this right taken away.

I love this quote from President Reagan, because it is so true.

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We did not pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where we were free."
- President Ronald Reagan

 

[mdwest]

If you and your ilk wanted to get rid of Biden, then y'all should have selected someone other than Trump that was more palatable to the majority of conservatives and independents.

this is the absolute center of the issue...

hard core trump supporters love to scream about TDS.. but fail to recognize they are just as fanatically "for" (thereby just as deranged.. i.e. unable to think or act in a logical manner) as the opposition is "against".. the name calling is if nothing else hypocritical.. and hypocrites tend to not do a very good job at convincing others of the value of their position..

they fail to recognize that they are in fact NOT the majority of voters.. while they represent a substantial voting block, they are not by themselves 51% of the voting population.. and therefore CANNOT win the election no matter how much they shout and call names if they dont figure out a way to convince a fairly large segment of the population to change their position and get on board..

If the objective is singularly to get Trump back into office.. the way to do that is to present logical arguments based on factual evidence and make a purposeful attempt to get the attention of those not on board in a way that is not offensive, degrading, or otherwise upsetting to them.. otherwise youre no different than an old man shouting at clouds.. no one really cares about what you have to say... youre just a nuisance and an occasional cheap form of entertainment..

If the objective is to get rid of Biden (I think almost everyone on AH agrees that Biden is a horrible choice for leading the US).. the the easiest way to accomplish that is to either get Trump in line with the above (not likely..).. or, to select a candidate that not only the far right can accept, but one that the more centrist right and independents can accept..

We can talk about stolen elections, ballot harvesting, mail in votes, etc.. until we're all blue in the face.. but none of that is really relevant if Trump doesnt have no shit a full 51% of the voting population in the US hitting the polls and pulling the lever with his name on it in November.. if he only has 49% of the vote, then who cares how many dead people vote for Biden in addition to the 51% of the legal voters that pulled the lever for him? He's already won...

Trump telling R voters very specifically that he doesnt want their vote and they will never be accepted into his sub organization of the party in no way helps him get to 51%.. only 45% of US registered voters identify themselves as republicans... 44% of US registered voters identify themselves as democrats... that leaves 11% of the registered voters identifying themselves as either independents or members of the small (typically more left leaning) parties like the Green Party, Socialist Party, etc)...

Assume even 5% of declared Republicans refuse to vote for Trump.. that leaves an 11% deficit to make it to the Whitehouse.... does anyone really believe that ALL independents (again, understanding that most independents and members of small parties as a rule lean left... often times EXTREMELY LEFT) are going to get on the Trump train?

If not, what is the no shit plan for actually getting back into the Oval Office?

It would seem to me that if The Donald really wanted to attain his goal, he'd be doing everything he possibly could (as would his ardent followers) to behave in a way that compels the remainder of the party to get on board rather than alienate them...

Otherwise this is nothing more than a race to see which party has less of its membership actually show up in November.. rather than actually being excited about a candidate, we're electing the person that the other party was even less excited about than the other guy (not a very sound methodology for winning... to only hope not to be as much of a loser as the other people in the same race)..


Edited to Add...... I realize percentages of the population over simplifies how things really work.. the popular vote doesnt win the election.. the electoral college does.. so.. winning CA by a landslide for the D's really doesnt do them much more good than winning CA by just a few votes... winning TX by a landslide for the R's doesnt do them any better than winning by a few votes, etc. etc. (with the few states that can split their electoral votes being the exception)..

but the argument remains valid.. if you look at the disbursement of R voters, D voters, and I voters across the US.. losing 5% of R voters will result in the loss of key swing states that must be won to get the electoral votes required to win the whitehouse..

 

[Red Leg]

@Red Leg this isn't the best example, but its the first one I found and its good enough. Of all the favorability ratings across parties, the one that shows the most dems leaning towards republican interests is related to military/police/protecting the nation.

Ignoring the fact that all elections are won by the swing independent voter, above and beyond that, it is the issue where a democrat is most likely to be disloyal to their party. 17% of democrats in this survey (i've seen a lot higher in others) believe that Republicans are better at this aspect of governing.

What that means is all you need is a Ukraine war expansion, or a Kenosha riot 2.0, or a George Floyd 2.0, and you've not only got swing independent votes moving to Republicans, you've also got up to 17% of democrats that find Republican's skill in this domain to be self-evident.



View attachment 593007

I think we are debating past one another. I interpreted what you wrote "For democrats, the luxury of ripping on Republican POTUS ends when they think they could get nuked or their kids could get drafted and killed in a foreign war." as democrats would abandon the democrat party if they believed that war was likely. Historically, that simply has not been the case.

I would agree that since Vietnam, largely thanks to Reagan build up and Democrat commitment to social programs, that Republicans are perceived to be stronger on defense. That is not really a message with which the current presumptive nominee is running.

 

[LivingTheDream]

In 2020 he garnered 92% of the registered Republican vote

Just wonder did he get 92% of registered republican voters or did he get 92% of the Republicans that voted? I really like numbers and would be interested to see how this plays out in places like Georgia and Wisconsin.

This is a great point though, he can't lose his base of voters. I doubt anyone who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 is suddenly going to say Biden is the answer. But they very well could stay home. I think Biden might have some of the same issues, I'm not anyone who voted Hillary and then Biden is going to say it is now time to give Trump a chance, but they might not stay home.

Which as someone mentioned above shows the importance of volunteers going door to door to get people to mail in or collect ballots (where legal), and get those votes in.

 

[freefall]

I keep reading about the "debunked" claims of election interference.
In most cases these claims were NOT disproven, rather they were denied cert by the judge because "the plaintiff could not demonstrate actual harm" sufficient to allow the case to proceed.
In other words, "they may well have cheated, but since you're just a taxpayer, up yours".

 

[Tanks]

am not a Trump loyalist, or follower, and I can see with my own eyes what he is. On the same token, I saw what he did while he was president, and can see what this one is doing too. My Dollar went a hell of a lot further than it did now. My TSP (41K) was a lot healthier than it is today. I never paid over $100 to fill up my truck, etc, etc, etc. Was he perfect? Well, I don't believe a single president has been perfect.

For me, personally, it is a wash with a slight edge to current economy. Yes, gas is more. I think groceries are a bit more as well. Stocks are a different story. My Apple stock was $78 on Jan. 23, 2020. Today it is $178. Amazon was $93 and today it is $177. Other stocks are up as well. Pretty good return I would say.

would agree that since Vietnam, largely thanks to Reagan build up and Democrat commitment to social programs, that Republicans are perceived to be stronger on defense. That is not really a message with which the current presumptive nominee is running.

Exactly. if I had to pick one between Biden and Trump based on protecting our interests overseas it would not be Trump based on his comments.

 

[rookhawk]

I think we are debating past one another. I interpreted what you wrote "For democrats, the luxury of ripping on Republican POTUS ends when they think they could get nuked or their kids could get drafted and killed in a foreign war." as democrats would abandon the democrat party if they believed that war was likely. Historically, that simply has not been the case.

I would agree that since Vietnam, largely thanks to Reagan build up and Democrat commitment to social programs, that Republicans are perceived to be stronger on defense. That is not really a message with which the current presumptive nominee is running.

To that point, the thread was asking "what would it take for Trump to win". My point was an external force: war and unrest, or compelling fear of the same. Under those circumstances, you win the independents, and you even win up to 17% of democrats that temporarily give up their luxury of voting against Republicans.

 

[Tanks]

To that point, the thread was asking "what would it take for Trump to win". My point was an external force: war and unrest, or compelling fear of the same. Under those circumstances, you win the independents, and you even win up to 17% of democrats that temporarily give up their luxury of voting against Republicans.

I thought George Floyd riots hurt Trump rather than help him. Now, immigration is becoming an issue as the Democrats are taking money away from social services that usually support minorities to help the immigrants. Whether that is going to help Trump in swing States remains to be seen though, as what is happening in NYC or Chicago or Denver does not matter except in optics.

In Michigan Biden's Israel policy is hurting him, but all indications are that Biden administration is getting ready to throw Israel under the bus for the sake of the elections.

 

[steve white]

A mini-rant, not really related to any of the normal topics. Perhaps it will paint me as a crotchety old man standing on my lawn, yelling at the neighbor's dog.

I frequently watch Fox News, for primarily (these days) Gutfeld and The Five. My mini-rant is some of the commercials.

Mike Lindell? Yes he has a right to turn a buck. Good for him. His commercials alone would make me choose a cinder block over his pillows. I will literally hurdle living room furniture to turn on the mute.

Also, whoever voices the commercials that sound similar "We urgently need your help to send a message of support for President Trump" or "We need your help to tell Congress that your gun rights are not to be infringed." It's not the messages, per se. It's the guy's voice. Same thing as Lindell: MUTE!

Maybe I just had a bad day at work (though it didn't seem like it) and I am grumpy. But I decided to vent. To those I may have offended with this rant - those who think I am criticizing Trump (I am not) or you are a big fan of My Pillow (I am not, and yes I have one - my wife bought it) or maybe you're related to or friends with the guy doing the commercials... well, I apologize for offending you.

OK, mini-rant over, and Gutfeld is on. Carry on....

Could be worse, all those commercials were MEN'S voices...

 

[Tundra Tiger]

"I doubt anyone who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 is suddenly going to say Biden is the answer. But they very well could stay home."

 

[freefall]

For me, personally, it is a wash with a slight edge to current economy. Yes, gas is more. I think groceries are a bit more as well. Stocks are a different story. My Apple stock was $78 on Jan. 23, 2020. Today it is $178. Amazon was $93 and today it is $177. Other stocks are up as well. Pretty good return I would say.

Exactly. if I had to pick one between Biden and Trump based on protecting our interests overseas it would not be Trump based on his comments.

Gas is up 50 cents a gallon in the last week. Groceries are up over 50% in the last 18 months.
Why don't they figure that in the inflation figures?

 

[freefall]

"I doubt anyone who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 is suddenly going to say Biden is the answer. But they very well could stay home."

View attachment 593035

So stay home and consign us to another 4 years like the last 4 because you find Trump "un-nice".
Well done. Real principled.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Un-nice? No, I find him repugnant, narcissistic, and egomaniacal.

Principled: "based on principles, or having good personal standards of behavior; acting in accordance with morality and showing recognition of right and wrong."

Point of fact, I do feel rather principled. I would humbly suggest that if Mr. Trump were more principled he would have my vote. There is still time for him to change, though I confess I would have some level of skepticism about the sincerity of that change, as unlikely as it seems. I continue to hope a viable alternative emerges. There is still time for that as well.

 

[freefall]

As a total non-sequitur, I am constantly amazed at a moose's ability to disappear by turning it's butt toward you.
Not sure where that should go, but I am here.

 

[Tanks]

So stay home and consign us to another 4 years like the last 4 because you find Trump "un-nice".
Well done. Real principled.

No, we'll stay home (actually vote GOP down ballot, just not Trump) as Trump is on record for not wanting our vote or money.

BTW, if I weren't hearing you guys complain I'd have said economy is going great. My companies are breaking revenue records, stocks are skyrocketing, and my vendors are booked for months in advance. As a result, my employees got significant bonuses last year. Heck, I had to hire another engineering firm overseas to help out with non-Federal work. I ordered a 300 kW natural gas Cummins generator for a client the other day, 287 day backlog. It seems various sectors are doing well.

In fairness, I don't think Biden or Trump had anything to do with much of it. Things like gas prices or groceries, while visible aren't a big part of people's budgets (if it is, it is indicative of a bigger problem). Gas is much more expensive in CA than TX, that is due to CA taxes not Federal policy.

Houthis blocking Red Sea (for all practical purposes) will have more of an impact on pricing than anything a POTUS does.

 

[rookhawk]

Un-nice? No, I find him repugnant, narcissistic, and egomaniacal.

If we're talking about clinical aspects, Trump is definitely a narcissist. Biden is a more poised sociopath and I can list the personal maladies and immoral shortcomings he also has. Often times people see immature, bloviating, grandiose people with narcissism and think that is a bigger problem than the poised, tempered, well-tuned sociopath that doesn't stick out nearly as much as the infantile outbursts of an "untuned sociopath". Biden has composure, but he still has the dark triad of personality traits.

One big difference is what their sense of self is. Trump sees his business, his children, and his presidency of this nation as an extension of self, so his narcissistic self-interests are manifest in being known forever as the "greatest, biggest, most wonderful"...America gets the overspray of this benefit. Biden's dark triad is about obtaining power for himself and his immediate family. His narrower, self-serving interests mean that he is less likely to benefit the country because its not an extension of his sense of "self". Biden would just have his heirs take their ill-gotten gains and move on to another host if his policies destroyed the USA. The psychology matters.

Once we get to the point that neither are fit for office, but you must choose one, the question will be which one is less damaging to you personally and to the future of your country.

 

[freefall]

I submit the Houthis are blocking the Red Sea precisely because of what the president ISN'T doing.

 

[LivingTheDream]

BTW, if I weren't hearing you guys complain I'd have said economy is going great. My companies are breaking revenue records, stocks are skyrocketing, and my vendors are booked for months in advance

I think the economy is odd. Stock market gains are mostly driven by a handful of stocks and the AI sector, I also believe that recent gains are pricing in a fed rate cut, and to be more specific 3 rate cuts between now and the end of the year. If the Fed holds back, it could expose bigger cracks. I believe credit card debt is at the highest it has ever been. I am starting to see home prices drop even with an extreme low inventory. And most importantly cancellation hunts are showing up at a higher rate than I remember.

I agree it doing better than expected. But I believe alot of this is based on future monetary policy or economic outlook, but there is certainly some things that should have everyone concerned.

I do think the middle class is getting pinched pretty good due to inflation, but I am not 100% sure if that has truly impacted discretionary spending yet (at least the data says no).

Time will tell.

 

[Newboomer]

I keep reading about the "debunked" claims of election interference.
In most cases these claims were NOT disproven, rather they were denied cert by the judge because "the plaintiff could not demonstrate actual harm" sufficient to allow the case to proceed.
In other words, "they may well have cheated, but since you're just a taxpayer, up yours".

Bingo!! The "investigations" yielded what they wanted it to.

 

[CoElkHunter]

For me, personally, it is a wash with a slight edge to current economy. Yes, gas is more. I think groceries are a bit more as well. Stocks are a different story. My Apple stock was $78 on Jan. 23, 2020. Today it is $178. Amazon was $93 and today it is $177. Other stocks are up as well. Pretty good return I would say.

Exactly. if I had to pick one between Biden and Trump based on protecting our interests overseas it would not be Trump based on his comments.

Well, IMHO we have a very artificial stock market. We've seen this same "over exuberance" many times before right before a major stock correction. What are the positive metrics that currently justify one new stock market record after another? Our ever increasing record national debt and the increasingly "bite" taken out of our GDP to pay the interest on it? The low unemployment rate when at least 52% of new jobs created are Government jobs increasing the national debt? Our manufacturing is still in contraction and core inflation ticked up in February. All the stock buy backs inflating companies' prospectus for clueless investors. Increasing commercial properties, credit card and automobile loan defaults and those are just the tip of the iceberg. Today, Jerome Powell stated the record high homeowners and auto insurance rates are spiraling out of control which has hampered falling interest rates. I could go on, but from a "Main Street" perspective, the stock market is currently just a magic show with the "smoke and mirrors" trick leading the way. The show will end soon and the remnants won't be pretty.