Ukraine is not winning, despite what you hear from fake news...
Allow me to be frank. That is a completely uninformed statement. I have spent my professional life in or supporting the profession of arms. I have commanded tactical units through Brigade and served a senior headquarters including CENTCOM, DIA, DA, DOD, etc. So, unlike many of the chattering class, I have a hard-earned, professional opinion of how that war is going. Let me provide a few non-debatable points where we can begin.
Russia invaded Ukraine with the intent of seizing Kyiv, and at least everything to the the east of the Dnieper River. They failed dramatically in that attempt and suffered enormous materiel and personnel casualties in the process. They did succeed in seizing significant portions of the Donetsk, Kherson, Karkiv, Zaporizhia, and Luhansk Oblasts. During a counter offensive last summer, Ukrainian forces successfully drove the Russians out of Kharkiv, again with enormous Russian losses. A few weeks later, the Russians were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson. All winter they have successfully bled the Russians at Bakhmut where two days ago the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, admitted in a video interview to loosing 20K KIA alone from his organization during that battle. The US Army anticipates a 6-1 to 8-1 WIA to KIA combat ratio depending on the combat environment. The Russian Army has primitive battlefield medical support compared to the West and their ratio is likely 3 or 4 to 1. That still means the Russians lost 100k casualties in that one extended battle. And because they were executing unsupported frontal infantry assaults against the dug-in Ukrainian forces, I and every other informed military professional I know, believe they suffered at least 3 - 1 casualties over the committed UA units.
Frustrated with his battlefield failures, Putin ordered an extended cruise missile bombardment of Ukraine. In June of last year, roughly 75% of the Russian missiles were getting through. Currently, roughly 5% are. It is particularly instructive that to date, not a single "Hypersonic" Kinsal has struck an intended target. The lights are on in Ukraine.
Finally, though the Russian Air Force has not been destroyed, it has been defeated in the airspace above Ukraine which has essentially become a no-fly zone for Russian manned aircraft.
My assessment, and one hardly alone among my peers, is that Russian forces are no longer capable of either strategic or operational level offensive maneuver. They still can carry out localized tactical assaults. Operationally, they have culminated. The initiative is now firmly in Ukraine's hands. We will discover shortly what they are capable of doing with it.
I really think you should start doing some independent research. A good place to start is this site.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
It is updated daily by an independent European analytical group. It lists equipment losses by both sides. The only entries that make it are those for which there is photo or video evidence and it is provided for each entry. It is a conservative count - particularly for the Russians who were initially gaining ground and for which there was limited photographic evidence of much of their lost equipment.
Spend some time over it. Then review the estimates of modernized equipment estimated to be on hand at the start of the conflict. Derelict Soviet tanks rusting in boneyards for fifty years don't really count. You can do your own math, but the scale of losses means the Army that entered Ukraine in February of 22 has been essentially destroyed, and with the addition of Western Armor, the correlation forces is accelerating in their favor.
Those are "facts" and assessments based upon a professional lifetime studying the art of war. Anyone telling you differently, such as Tucker Carlson, Revolver, or Douglas MacGregor are spinning a narrative for their own political purposes. Sadly, they are also de facto spokesmen for Russian propaganda.
news.usni.org
