https://link.foreignpolicy.com/view/64428506aced183da6246f56irq6x.1ex4/9104e7d7
U.S. Ties With South Africa Going South, and Fast
The U.S. ambassador to South Africa kicked up a diplomatic storm when he
declared that the United States had intelligence that weapons were being covertly shipped from a South African port bound for Russia.
Up in arms over arms. That claim led to a heated swirl of accusations and counter-accusations, followed by vehement denials from South African government spokespeople, a vow by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to launch an investigation into the matter, and
vague statements from Washington that left more questions than answers.
Global south calling. The whole saga showcased how seriously the United States and its Western allies take the prospect of any countries around the world offering support to Russia as war rages in Ukraine—while Ukraine itself works to
make inroads in the global south to blunt Moscow’s influence.
It also highlights how the U.S.-South Africa relationship—once viewed as a linchpin of U.S. engagement across the continent—seems to be teetering on the brink of a massive upheaval.
The U.S. ambassador to Pretoria, Reuben Brigety,
said he would “bet [his] life” on the accuracy of the U.S. intelligence on the matter, despite the fierce backlash from the South African government.
That broadly leaves three options.
Pick one of three doors. The first scenario is that the U.S. intelligence is wrong. Current and former U.S. officials who have spoken to SitRep say that is highly unlikely, given Brigety’s reputation as a straight shooter who wouldn’t go out on such a far limb without serious evidence to back it up, but it’s hard to independently verify claims stemming from classified intelligence. And, of course, U.S. intelligence has
gotten things wrong before.
Second, the South African government secretly and knowingly supplied weapons to Russia, brazenly defying Western sanctions and undercutting its supposedly neutral position on the war. Again, this is a charge that the South African government denies.
Third, the arms shipment was arranged without the government’s knowledge—a not unlikely possibility given the rampant levels of
corruption and dysfunction gripping the South African government today. (One data point to consider: Viktor Vekselberg, a wealthy Russian oligarch close to Russian President Vladimir Putin who is under U.S. sanctions, is
reportedly a major donor to South Africa’s ruling party.)
Things are getting tense. Even if there’s no answer yet to which of these three options is right, South Africa’s deepening relationship with Russia and continued stance on the war in Ukraine have drawn intense scrutiny in the West.
South Africa agreed to
joint military exercises with Russia and China this February—exercises that coincided with the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, even as this scandal rages, South Africa’s army chief visited Moscow this week in a meeting that the South African government insists was “planned well in advance” and part of a “
goodwill visit” at the Russian military’s invitation. Regardless of how well in advance the trip was planned, the optics are less than great in the eyes of policymakers in Washington and European capitals.
A peace mission? Meanwhile, as its militaries cozy up, South Africa is part of a new diplomatic initiative with other African powers to try to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. The leaders of South Africa, Zambia, Senegal, Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Egypt plan to
travel to Moscow and Kyiv to meet separately with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss pathways to end the war. Most experts believe Russia has no interest in backing down from its fight, and Ukraine is reportedly in the beginnings of a major counteroffensive.
Every relationship has a history. South Africa has always maintained close ties with Russia, both as a fellow member of the BRICS bloc of emerging powerhouse economies and during Moscow’s efforts to support the anti-apartheid movement that finally ended the country’s brutal apartheid regime in 1994. Those ties go deep, as a “large number of cadres from the African National Congress or ANC (formerly an anti-apartheid organization, now the ruling party of South Africa) went to Moscow for military training during the apartheid era, chiefly in sabotage work,” as Stephen Chan, a renowned scholar on African affairs at SOAS, University of London, wrote in
The Conversation. The United States, meanwhile, offered diplomatic support to the apartheid regime during much of the Cold War, including watering down U.N. sanctions in the 1960s and 1970s—a fact not forgotten by many in the ANC.
(It’s worth noting that Ukraine was part of the former Soviet Union that provided so much support to the ANC during the Cold War.)
Mounting pressure from Western countries for South Africa to rethink its ties with Moscow haven’t paid off so far, even as fresh evidence of war crimes and possibly genocide by Russian forces in Ukraine piles up. That has only heightened tensions between Washington and Pretoria.
Is this the final straw? The whole saga could lead to a radical rethink in how Washington views its ties with South Africa going forward. “It’s long past time to stop romanticizing U.S.-South Africa relations, or pretending that a one-sided enthusiasm for cooperation with the South African government is a critical linchpin in U.S.-Africa policy,” Michelle Gavin of the Council on Foreign Relations
wrote in a new piece for the think tank this week. (Gavin is a veteran of the Obama administration National Security Council and a former ambassador to Botswana.) “Over and over, South African words and deeds demonstrate that what would seem to be fertile ground of shared interests and values in democratic societies is, for the time being, a mirage.”