Magnaport, anyone?

[rookhawk]

I think the market for fine wood stocked rifles may have peaked; it seems fewer hunters and rifle enthusiasts prefer them. Or, like me, they are reluctant to risk wear and tear on what is, after all, a tool however beautiful.

There's a bit of nuance to it. Everyone interprets data differently, but based upon recent sales I keep track of both domestically at retail, the auctions here, in the UK, and the EU, here's my analysis:

On used and vintage rifles:

450-400 - record setting prices
404 Jeff - record setting prices
470NE and 500NE - Stable prices
500 Jeff - record setting prices
505 Gibbs - stable prices
Small bore doubles - record setting prices
English small bore magazine rifles from London makers- record setting prices
Smallbore 410 and 28 gauge best guns are up

By make:

Heyms are record setting prices
Dakotas are record setting prices
English doubles are record setting prices
Gibbs Farquarson and Similar single shots are record setting prices
Westley Richards are way up
Hollands are stable
Griffin & Howe rifles in less common smallbore calibers are up
CZ customs are up
Storied American pre-war customs other than G&H are stable to down


Prices are down on the following:

BPE doubles are down
Brownings are down
450NE, 475 No 2, 465NE are down
Drillings are way down
Combination guns are way down
Cape guns are nearly unsaleable
Rimless largebore double rifles are way down
Custom/bespoke R93s and R8s (steel receivers heavy embellishment) are down
Vierlings are way down
Ferlachs are down (except for record setting prices on Borovniks in UK/EU)
375HH is slightly down
Spanish shotgun prices are in the toilet
12 bore shotgun prices are slightly down
American parker, fox, and lefever guns are down
American custom rifles are down considerably
360NE rifles are up

By features:

Mauser actions are stable or up
Push feed best guns are way down
Single trigger large bore double rifles are in the toilet
Over/Under largebore double rifles are also in the toilet
Large bore extractor double rifles are down
7x57 / 275 Rigby is up
250-3000 and 257 roberts is up
6.5x54 and 6.5x55 is up
Largebore metric rifles are down

 

[375Ruger416]

There's a bit of nuance to it. Everyone interprets data differently, but based upon recent sales I keep track of both domestically at retail, the auctions here, in the UK, and the EU, here's my analysis:

On used and vintage rifles:

450-400 - record setting prices
404 Jeff - record setting prices
470NE and 500NE - Stable prices
500 Jeff - record setting prices
505 Gibbs - stable prices
Small bore doubles - record setting prices
English small bore magazine rifles from London makers- record setting prices
Smallbore 410 and 28 gauge best guns are up

By make:

Heyms are record setting prices
Dakotas are record setting prices
English doubles are record setting prices
Gibbs Farquarson and Similar single shots are record setting prices
Westley Richards are way up
Hollands are stable
Griffin & Howe rifles in less common smallbore calibers are up
CZ customs are up
Storied American pre-war customs other than G&H are stable to down


Prices are down on the following:

BPE doubles are down
Brownings are down
450NE, 475 No 2, 465NE are down
Drillings are way down
Combination guns are way down
Cape guns are nearly unsaleable
Rimless largebore double rifles are way down
Custom/bespoke R93s and R8s (steel receivers heavy embellishment) are down
Vierlings are way down
Ferlachs are down (except for record setting prices on Borovniks in UK/EU)
375HH is slightly down
Spanish shotgun prices are in the toilet
12 bore shotgun prices are slightly down
American parker, fox, and lefever guns are down
American custom rifles are down considerably
360NE rifles are up

By features:

Mauser actions are stable or up
Push feed best guns are way down
Single trigger large bore double rifles are in the toilet
Over/Under largebore double rifles are also in the toilet
Large bore extractor double rifles are down
7x57 / 275 Rigby is up
250-3000 and 257 roberts is up
6.5x54 and 6.5x55 is up
Largebore metric rifles are down

What’s your outlook for the next 5, 10, and 15 years?

 

[rookhawk]

What’s your outlook for the next 5, 10, and 15 years?

My tune has changed. I was pessimistic coming out of the 2008 era when a LOT of nice guns hit the market. I thought it was like comic books and baseball cards and old Dutch masters. 99% of collectibles were in the toilet, but the top-top-top best 1% was hitting meteoric prices.

I don't think that way anymore. I'm seeing demand-convergence of people going after these rifles. I'll give you an example: Buyer 1.) I don't give a damned about collectibles at all, I just want a nice Parkwest 76 Dark Continent but I don't want to wait a year or more and spend $20000+. Buyer 2.) I'm a fanatical collector and I want functional art, I want an original Dakota 76 African with all the bells and whistles.

The collector and the non-collector are both bidding on the same exact guns. One guy wants to buy a lightly used gun because its cheaper and he can have it today, the other guy wants it because he's a collector and they "don't make them like they used to". As long as we have inflation and increasing MSRPs on fine guns, these nicer guns are chasing just behind MSRP on the used market.

The same could be said for vintage Rigby, Westley Richards, and Jeffery rifles. You might not give a darn about collectibility or appreciation, all you know is that really nice used gun is less than a new Highland Stalker at $17000 and it is a lot prettier. The same gun is being driven up in price by the collector that wants "a real one from golden era between the wars".

That's what I'm seeing. Also, really nice vintage guns aren't all that expensive, relatively speaking. For the same price as a Blaser R8, well equipped, someone can have an appreciating asset in one of the examples above. Sure, the Blaser is modern technology, but so is a new boat and we know what happens to boats a day after you buy them. But these rust blued and walnut masterpieces cannot easily be reproduced anymore, the machinery and the skill required is nearly extinct worldwide. New production will not be able to satisfy demand at a reasonable pricepoint.

These old guns or custom steel and walnut, oil finished guns have one other edge. You can use them, wear on them, put dings in them, and almost all wear can be mitigated 95% of the way back. I cannot undo wear to a modern technological gun that is cerakote and polymer, they don't take well to reconditioning.

I took us a bit off course of the thread, so to tie it back to the point of the thread, when people are looking for what I'd call premium manufactured one-at-a-time rifles like the Dakotas and British stuff, they do want to see it unmolested or if it is messed with, that its reversible/curable condition. (put the original trigger back, remove the ugly scope, etc.) Porting/brakes are like changing the bottom metal or swapping out the stocks, it kills the demand from both types of buyers.