I KNOW IT IS OVERKILL BUT WHAT BULLET AND WEIGHT WOULD YOU RECOMMEND IN .458 WIN MAG FOR LEOPARD?

[sgt_zim]

Never hunted leopard, but if/when I do, it'll be with my 6.5 Swede or my 280 AI. Because from 70 or 80 yards, I can stack bullets with either of them all day long. 156 gr Norma Oryx for either of them, or Woodeligh RN 160 for the 6.5

It doesn't matter what you do in your backyard range with your 458, the recoil is 1 variable to eliminate. You aren't shooting at an NFL football (cape buffalo heart) or volleyball (elephant brain). You're shooting at something smaller than your fist. A poor shot with a 458 is no better than a poor shot with a 6.5mm. The probability of a mauling with a poor shot from either is high, but the probability of a poor shot from a 458 is higher than a poor shot with a rifle that has substantially less recoil.

Some real math/probability and statistics.

You're in a game show, you have a choice for a wonderful prize behind 1 of 3 doors. You choose door 2. The emcee eliminates door 3, and offers you the opportunity to re-choose your door - 1 or 2?

You double your probability of selecting the winning door if you switch to door 1. Wrap your mind around that. You won't always win by selecting the highest probability, but on any time line, you'll win far more often on the option with the highest probability of success.

 

[Flipper Dude]

I know that your game show / door scenario is supposedly true, but I have yet to have it explained to me such that I can understand/ wrap my head around it. In the explanations I’ve read, it seems that one of their arguments is non-sensical.

But hey, that’s just me.

A man’s gotta know his limitations

 

[sgt_zim]

I know that your game show / door scenario is supposedly true, but I have yet to have it explained to me such that I can understand/ wrap my head around it. In the explanations I’ve read, it seems that one of their arguments is non-sensical.

But hey, that’s just me.

A man’s gotta know his limitations

With 3 doors, whichever door you choose, your probability is .333 that you pick the right door, and .667 you've picked the wrong door.

Eliminating one of the 2 doors doesn't change the .667 that you're wrong, and the game show host isn't going to eliminate the door with the actual prize behind it. In this scenario, you'll win the grand prize 2/3 of the time by changing your selection to the 1 remaining door.

As I said, you won't always win going with the highest probability, but you'll win more often than you lose, and that's all you can really do. A 7mm or 30 cal of some stripe is a higher probability in this scenario than a 458. It's just math.

The other part of the calculus is you won't produce a better result with a well-placed shot from a 458 than you will with a small bore, and you won't produce a worse result on a miss with a small bore than you would with a large bore. The probability of an imprecise shot is just higher with a large bore.

There is of course a lot of slop in the gears on an analysis like this, but this sort of analysis is literally my day job - my official title at work is "risk analyst."

What is the known cost if we do X to prevent Y so we can do Z, and what is the potential opportunity cost if we do X to prevent Y to get a lot less of Z? And what is the potential cost if we don't do X at all and Y happens?

It cost us about $1.5M last year when we went after Z without engaging X because Y did in fact happen. In HSE parlance, it was a near miss, not an actual OTJ injury. We got lucky.

 

[IvW]

Lots of bad ideas floating around on this one......

 

[Flipper Dude]

With 3 doors, whichever door you choose, your probability is .333 that you pick the right door, and .667 you've picked the wrong door.

Eliminating one of the 2 doors doesn't change the .667 that you're wrong, and the game show host isn't going to eliminate the door with the actual prize behind it. In this scenario, you'll win the grand prize 2/3 of the time by changing your selection to the 1 remaining door.

As I said, you won't always win going with the highest probability, but you'll win more often than you lose, and that's all you can really do. A 7mm or 30 cal of some stripe is a higher probability in this scenario than a 458. It's just math.

The other part of the calculus is you won't produce a better result with a well-placed shot from a 458 than you will with a small bore, and you won't produce a worse result on a miss with a small bore than you would with a large bore. The probability of an imprecise shot is just higher with a large bore.

There is of course a lot of slop in the gears on an analysis like this, but this sort of analysis is literally my day job - my official title at work is "risk analyst."

What is the known cost if we do X to prevent Y so we can do Z, and what is the potential opportunity cost if we do X to prevent Y to get a lot less of Z? And what is the potential cost if we don't do X at all and Y happens?

It cost us about $1.5M last year when we went after Z without engaging X because Y did in fact happen. In HSE parlance, it was a near miss, not an actual OTJ injury. We got lucky.

PM sent. When you have time

 

[549]

I know that your game show / door scenario is supposedly true, but I have yet to have it explained to me such that I can understand/ wrap my head around it. In the explanations I’ve read, it seems that one of their arguments is non-sensical.

But hey, that’s just me.

A man’s gotta know his limitations

3 doors.
1/3 chance the prize is behind each one. 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 = 3/3 or 1.
You have 2/3 chance of losing because there is 1/3 + 1/3 = 2/3 chance the prize is behind ONE of the two doors you didn't pick.
Host eliminates on one of those two doors.
So, there is a 2/3 chance it's behind remaining door that you didn't pick.
Could you have picked the winner from the start and now lose by changing?
Yes. But you have a better chance by playing the odds and switching.

Another way of looking at why you should switch that helps some folks is the following scenario.

100 Powerball tickets. 1 of them is a winner. You pick one.
The odds of you picking the winner were 1/100.
The odds of the winning ticket being amongst the other 99 are 99/100.
The cashier at the store systematically runs 98 of the 99 tickets you didn't choose through the lottery machine showing that they are losing tickets.
Now, you can switch your ticket to the last of the 99 before it is ran through the machine.
Would you?

 

[Flipper Dude]

3 doors.
1/3 chance the prize is behind each one. 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 = 3/3 or 1.
You have 2/3 chance of losing because there is 1/3 + 1/3 = 2/3 chance the prize is behind ONE of the two doors you didn't pick.
Host eliminates on one of those two doors.
So, there is a 2/3 chance it's behind remaining door that you didn't pick.
Could you have picked the winner from the start and now lose by changing?
Yes. But you have a better chance by playing the odds and switching.

Another way of looking at why you should switch that helps some folks is the following scenario.

100 Powerball tickets. 1 of them is a winner. You pick one.
The odds of you picking the winner were 1/100.
The odds of the winning ticket being amongst the other 99 are 99/100.
The cashier at the store systematically runs 98 of the 99 tickets you didn't choose through the lottery machine showing that they are losing tickets.
Now, you can switch your ticket to the last of the 99 before it is ran through the machine.
Would you?

I would say that the events of the past are done and known. You are now asking me to pick one out of two choices. A completely separate decision. Are you stating that the chosen Powerball ticket has a 1% chance of being a winner and the other has a 99% chance ?

If you brought someone in off of the street after the fact, and asked them to choose 1 of the 2 remaining tickets, their odds are not 50/50?

Asking me to make the same choice, my odds are 99/1? Same question, same choices?

Not saying you’re wrong, or Sgt. Zim. Just can’t find a way to make it jive in my brain.

Wife would say that’s not unusual

 

[549]

Are you stating that the chosen Powerball ticket has a 1% chance of being a winner and the other has a 99% chance ?

Yes.

If you brought someone in off of the street after the fact, and asked them to choose 1 of the 2 remaining tickets, their odds are not 50/50?

If they are now making a choice of 1 of 2 doors, then yes, 50/50. If the host eliminated one door before you made your choice, your odds would have been 50/50. But since he didn't, your odds of winning are still just 1/3 or 33.33333.... if you stand pat on your original choice.

If you switched lottery tickets, yes your odds of winning go to 99%.

No guarantee of winning in either scenario, just better odds.

 

[Flipper Dude]

I would say that the events of the past are done and known. You are now asking me to pick one out of two choices. A completely separate decision.

I do not think that this can be ignored. If so, I’ll bring someone in off of the street and have them make the decision for me. Their odds are 1 in 2. Mine are 99/1 against. Non-sensical.

It could be that we are trying to answer 2 different questions

(Sorry about the thread derail! I’m finished)

 

[Hyde Hunter]

I own and shoot the 458 and if I was to go after a Leopard I would load the CEB 260 FB Raptor at about 2000 fps. it will enter about 2 inches then the nose will break into 6 pieces and do a lot of damage to the vitals and the shank will pass through for a good blood trail. good luck with your choice and hunt.

 

[DLSJR]

If I take a second rifle it will be either my 300 win mag or my 338 win mag, both are MOA rifles. My 30-06 is my most expensive and least accurate rifle.

I have heard that leopards are susceptible to velocity and shock. What do you think of using a rapid expanding bullet like a Berger Elite Hunter or the Hornady eldx?

I would NEVER use a Berger on any dangerous game animal. Period.

Stick with any of these bullets for leopard, all of which would be great for leopard and are well proven over thousands of thin skinned plains game animals…

Nosler - Partition (excellent choice), Accubond or solid base
Trophy Bonded Bearclaw
Swift - Scirroco or A Frame.
Northfork - percussion point. Specifically made for lion & leopard
Federal - Terminal Ascent or Trophy Bonded Tip (TBT is a Bearclaw)
Sierra Game King
Hornady Interlock
Cutting Edge Raptor

Any of the above would be a great choice and way better than a Berger for leopard. For a leopard, most lead core soft points work fine, but I’d stay far away from thin jacketed, fragile bullets. You want a bullet that’ll expand reliably and still give you an exit hole.

Your mention of using a 300 or 338 win mag is much better than a 458 for leopard. I’ve shot leopards with both cartridges and either is fantastic for leopard. Here is what you get with a 225 grain Bearclaw from a 338…

 

[DLSJR]

With 3 doors, whichever door you choose, your probability is .333 that you pick the right door, and .667 you've picked the wrong door.

Eliminating one of the 2 doors doesn't change the .667 that you're wrong, and the game show host isn't going to eliminate the door with the actual prize behind it. In this scenario, you'll win the grand prize 2/3 of the time by changing your selection to the 1 remaining door.

As I said, you won't always win going with the highest probability, but you'll win more often than you lose, and that's all you can really do. A 7mm or 30 cal of some stripe is a higher probability in this scenario than a 458. It's just math.

The other part of the calculus is you won't produce a better result with a well-placed shot from a 458 than you will with a small bore, and you won't produce a worse result on a miss with a small bore than you would with a large bore. The probability of an imprecise shot is just higher with a large bore.

There is of course a lot of slop in the gears on an analysis like this, but this sort of analysis is literally my day job - my official title at work is "risk analyst."

What is the known cost if we do X to prevent Y so we can do Z, and what is the potential opportunity cost if we do X to prevent Y to get a lot less of Z? And what is the potential cost if we don't do X at all and Y happens?

It cost us about $1.5M last year when we went after Z without engaging X because Y did in fact happen. In HSE parlance, it was a near miss, not an actual OTJ injury. We got lucky.

One other consideration to add to your analysis is that, despite being a really easy shot at close range, with a solid rest at a stationary animal, a lot of hunters screw up the shot on a leopard due to nerves. Is it easier to shoot a 300 or 458 when your pulse is racing, you’re breathing hard from excitement and hoping you don’t F up the shot?

 

[sgt_zim]

One other consideration to add to your analysis is that, despite being a really easy shot at close range, with a solid rest at a stationary animal, a lot of hunters screw up the shot on a leopard due to nerves. Is it easier to shoot a 300 or 458 when your pulse is racing, you’re breathing hard from excitement and hoping you don’t F up the shot?

From everything I've read and everyone I've talked to, that's exactly the issue.

For animals that just need 300 - 570 grains of thunder rolling through them, there's just no substitute for bullet mass and the recoil which comes with.

A leopard isn't in that class of animal.

If a guy is as rock steady with a 416 Rigby as he is with a 30-06, then bring the 416. If he isn't, he increases the probability with his 416 that somebody, or several somebodies, is going to get mauled.

If I ever get a chance at a leopard, I'll probably bring my 9.3x62 loaded up with Oryx or Interlock.

 

[codofish]

I would say that the events of the past are done and known. You are now asking me to pick one out of two choices. A completely separate decision.

I do not think that this can be ignored. If so, I’ll bring someone in off of the street and have them make the decision for me. Their odds are 1 in 2. Mine are 99/1 against. Non-sensical.

It could be that we are trying to answer 2 different questions

(Sorry about the thread derail! I’m finished)

I'm glad the derail is over, there was way too much math for me to be able to follow it.

 

[codofish]

I own and shoot the 458 and if I was to go after a Leopard I would load the CEB 260 FB Raptor at about 2000 fps. it will enter about 2 inches then the nose will break into 6 pieces and do a lot of damage to the vitals and the shank will pass through for a good blood trail. good luck with your choice and hunt.

Hmmm, just when I was about to give up on the one rifle option you have intrigued me. Before I go down the CEB Raptor rabbit hole has anyone here actually used one on a cat?

 

[Hyde Hunter]

I have not yet but I would call Dan at CEB and talk to him he is a great guy and would not steer you wrong