COVID-19 Coronavirus UPDATES, BANS, CLOSURES, ADVISORY, etc.

[Red Leg]

What is factual is that in Italy alone towns have been quarantined and are locked down......airlines are reporting large drops in passenger bookings.... Switzerland has banned any meetings of more than 1000 people... so the Swiss motor show has been cancelled along with their top watch show so the simple fact is that tourism in these areas is being impacted massively .. Remember this includes not only hotels... but restaurants... shops selling everything from tourist souvenirs to clothing shops etc etc .....tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world ...supporting individuals selling on beaches or streets to multinational hotel groups and everything in between..... And it doesn't take much to stop people traveling..... Simple example people from usa stopped going to Europe enmass when the first Gulf war kicked off as it was perceived Europe was close to the Gulf area.....you are talking about serious carnage possibly occurring in this industry..... You now have car manufacturers running out of parts ...and other manufacturing sectors will be in the same situation..... Clothing suppliers are in tha same boat.....etc etc etc.....so this has the potential to cause massive disruption worldwide..... And the potential to make a lot of businesses to go to the wall......in the third world many people have what are being termed underlying illnesses.... So factor that in to the potential figures and I don't think you can be so flippant......

I don't think anyone is being flippant. And the wreckage you are describing is apparently going to continue to happen. However, it is not happening because of the virus, it is occurring because of our collective hysteria in responding to it. This is not bubonic plague. It is essentially the flu. Apparently, it doesn't even infect children. The New England Journal of Medicine just published a new assessment:

The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

There is obviously a big "may" in that opening sentence but that sort of rational dialogue is not even entertained by the breathless commentators on the 24-hour news channels.

 

[LivingTheDream]

I honestly think the markets were a little overbought and the coronavirus gave everyone an easy excuse to sell, take a correction and then gear up for the next run up. I think it is serious, and should be taken seriously but the mass hysteria that is taking place is being driven by the media. Though skeptical of the Chinese data, it seems like new cases are dropping at the epicenter of the virus, usually that is a good indication on how quickly the virus will burn out. We are probably reaching the peak of the spread currently especially with Summer coming.

 

[spike.t]

I don't think anyone is being flippant. And the wreckage you are describing is apparently going to continue to happen. However, it is not happening because of the virus, it is occurring because of our collective hysteria in responding to it. This is not bubonic plague. It is essentially the flu. Apparently, it doesn't even infect children. The New England Journal of Medicine just published a new assessment:

The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

There is obviously a big "may" in that opening sentence but that sort of rational dialogue is not even entertained by the breathless commentators on the 24-hour news channels.

Joe I realise how it's being put about on the news etc with 24 hour live update channels etc......what I am pointing out is the reality of what is happening, and the potential of how it could (and is happening as of now) and what probably will occur .....what said before about it hammering people with "underlying illnesses " .....well that accounts for significant percentages of populations in a lot of third world countries especially African ones....and the stock markets have plummeted..... Doesn't matter if it's a nasty version of the flue or not.....the issues I mentioned are happening and will escalate.....it would seem the runaway train is moving and building momentum...... And as you say it's fuelled by lots of varying things...

 

[Brent in Az]

This Coronavirus issue, has a very dubious undertone to it. It's already being politicized. What a shock, right?
It is undermining Trumps robust economy, in a election year.

Guess who will be spreading the blame?

 

[Red Leg]

Joe I realise how it's being put about on the news etc with 24 hour live update channels etc......what I am pointing out is the reality of what is happening, and the potential of how it could (and is happening as of now) and what probably will occur .....what said before about it hammering people with "underlying illnesses " .....well that accounts for significant percentages of populations in a lot of third world countries especially African ones....and the stock markets have plummeted..... Doesn't matter if it's a nasty version of the flue or not.....the issues I mentioned are happening and will escalate.....it would seem the runaway train is moving and building momentum...... And as you say it's fuelled by lots of varying things...

I am not arguing with you Mike. The economic impact of this is real and will get much worse before it gets better. International travel (and hunting) are the first things people cut in an economic down turn - whatever the cause. But historically, these economic events are called "panics" for reason. This particular one is enhanced by our frenzied inability to address the threat of the underlying virus rationally.

 

[Wheels]

...... The New England Journal of Medicine just published a new assessment:

The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

......

Much is still not known about COVID 19. A major unknown is the fatality rate. The New England Journal of Medicine may approximate the number at 0.1%, but that sounds like a "may", nothing based on scientific evidence.

Looking at the most recent WHO information, there have been 85,641 cases and 2,933 fatalities for a mortality rate of 3.42%. Now in no way do I think these numbers are close. There are probably multiples of this number that have had mild cases or been asymptomatic that are not counted. On the other hand the fatality rates are probably multiples higher also. In January in China, most death certificates attributed pneumonia and well into February, death certificates were notating pneumonia even when the patient had been confirmed to have COVID 19.

This study is out of China, so I don't trust it either but the China CDC shows a mortality rate of 2.3%.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate



The following is another CCDC mortality rate graph for what it is worth.

According to WHO, Iran has 593 cases and 43 fatalities for a mortality rate of 7.25%
According to WHO, Japan has 230 cases and 5 fatalities for a mortality rate of 2.17%
According to WHO, ROK has 3,150 cases and 17 fatalities for a mortality rate of 0.53%
According to WHO, Italy has 888 cases and 21 fatalities for a mortality rate of 2.36%
According to WHO, America has 62 cases and 1 fatality for a mortality rate of 1.61%

Are these really statistically significant. Probably not much, still none of these numbers are close to the NEJM saying it may be close to the common flu with a mortality rate of 0.1%


The seasonal flu requires around 1% of those infected to go to the hospital. It looks like COVID 19 may require around 15% of those infected to go to the hospital. With a significant number requiring a respirator. This has the potential to overload the medical facilities of first world countries. Infected individuals in third world countries are most susceptible since they will be without the medical resources of first world countries. In all likelihood, it will be these countries that elevate the mortality rates way above the seasonal flu.

We will get better mortality rates in a month or two as numbers are totaled in Singapore, South Korea and Japan where numbers are high enough to get significant statistics. These mortality numbers will in all likelihood not compare to the mortality rates of third world countries where the medical facilities are unavailable and rates will probably be multiples higher than in first world countries.

The MSM seems to have gone hysterical over COVID 19 this week. This is not helpful to anyone. On the other hand, the NEJM saying that COVID 19 "may" be like the seasonal flu seems to underestimate and misrepresent actual data that is currently available. Yes, COVID 19 "may" be like the seasonal flu with a 0.1% mortality rate, but the information available at the present doesn't back up the NEJM assumption.


Professor Christophe Fraser probably says it better than me.



Christophe Fraser
@ChristoPhraser

Replying to
@ChristoPhraser
and
@LoneSimonsen2
The short conclusion is: COVID-19 has the potential to cause an epidemic incomparable to seasonal influenza, both due to higher per severity per infection, and due to potential for extreme stresses on hospitals. However, a large epidemic is not unavoidable. 10/n
7:17 AM · Feb 29, 2020·Twitter Web App


Don't change your normal lives. For most people this will be an insignificant event. In all likelihood COVID 19 is nothing like the normal flu, however.

 

[BnC 04]

Sure hope we get a handle on this soon, preferably prior to May 6th.

 

[EricB]

 

[Saul]

With all of the increase in globalization there is an inevitable increase in cases like this occurring. I think it is a pretty clear indicator that we cannot trust China to participate in the global cooperation and fact-sharing needed to handle a pandemic and that we should be discussing with other nations how we are going to collectively deal with more viruses originating from China. Furthermore, this underscores the importance of having a robust system in place for dealing with infectious diseases as a matter of national security.

 

[Philip Glass]

Our enemies are watching as the Democrats and the media create a hysteria over basically a new flu strain. China is a nasty overcrowded nation and this will continue to happen. This is the most ridiculously over hyped situation I’ve ever seen. It is all to damage President Trumps re-election chances as far as the US is concerned. Come April, just like flu, this will fade away. Anyone remember SARS, swine flu, bird flu? Nope.

 

[Wheels]

When,

1. A pathogen proves contagious in both symptomatic and asymptomatic hosts,

and,

2. The medical community and government focus on symptomatic hosts,

then,

3. The pathogen will continue to spread.



Perhaps COVID 19 will burn down this summer but it will be back in larger force this fall. As of about a month ago, there was no putting it back in the box. Hopefully an antivirus will be available by the end of the year. Perhaps a COVID 19 antivirus will be included in the normal flu shot in the fall of 2021.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Interesting theory some historians have on the origins of the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...u-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/

 

[Royal27]

Good read and video from Bannon on the economic impacts of the virus and why the US is in a better position than the rest of the world.

https://theconservativetreehouse.co...prescience-of-the-trump-doctrine/#more-185160

 

[Deleted member 43267]

I do not know why I bother, but my daughter is a real epidemiologist who is in on the planning for a SW State's response. We have lots of phone conversations about COVID-19.

There are many corona viruses this is just one of them.

We do not know the mortality rate because that is the proportion of people who are infected who die. We do not know the number of people infected because to be diagnosed you need to be sick enough to seek medical treatment and then receive the test. There may be many people contracting it who feel crappy, but do not seek medical treatment. Thus, the true mortality rate is unknown, as is the number of infections. But, the undiagnosed mild cases are the ones who go the mall anyway, and this things spreads pretty easily. That is also a concern.

Of people who seek treatment and are diagnosed, it is more serious than the flue, but not like SARS. The overall mortality of those diagnosed is about 2-3% but it is age-specific and rather bad for people over 80 (I have seen estimates of 10-20%) and people who have compromised immune systems. One comment on this forum suggested that SARs was bad and now you do not hear about it so this is just a media frenzy. Well, SARs was contained through public health measures, some of which are no longer in place.

Her advice? Hand washing and all the other things one does during flu season. Do not fly to places that have outbreaks. And most importantly, get a flu shot because if you get the flu and need care you will be dealing with a medical system that is likely to be overwhelmed due to large numbers of suspected and real corona cases. There is concern, but do not to panic.

I find the "this is just the flu and fake news designed to make the President look bad" appalling, because it encourages people to ignore the basic precautions that could help them stay safe. It also makes people who ignore the science complicit in spreading infection, increasing the number of cases, and ultimately killing some old folks or infants with immune problems.

As for the stock market, you have CEOs making announcements of reduced profits due to supply chain disruptions. The news media has nothing to do with supply chains, but that is what is driving things. I also think that the U.S. was caught with its pants down due to this administrations disruptions of the CDC and international health organizations. They actually work, and are one of the reasons that diseases like Ebola have not reached the US (aside from a handful of cases that were isolated quickly). To try to bring them back now with political appointments is like laying off all the firefighters until there is a fire. And then summoning a bunch of people who do not know how operate the truck, pumps, and hoses at all, let alone the right way.

I did enjoy the comment that predicted that COVID-19 would die out during summer and return in the fall, because that is exactly what the 1918 flue pandemic did. Astute, but I hope that history does not repeat itself.

The President's rambling and downright weird assertions that everything is under control do not seem to be working. My financial planner (who has helped me plan for safaris) is inundated with panicked clients who are trying to sell stocks as fast as they can. Lots of frantic calls, with no end in site.

Bottom line is that if news is coming from a real media outlet, know the underlying science. That is available from your State's public health department, CDC, world health organization, and other such groups. Any other source of information is just a bunch of jiggery-pokery and I would ignore it, especially the conspiracy theories that are not relevant to anything.

My best wishes go to those planning trips to Africa that may be in jeopardy. I hope that this thing is contained and that you can enjoy the experience of a lifetime without disruption. And you now know what to do to reduce your chances of getting sick.

Jeff

 

[Alistair]

Yeah. Far as im concerned the biggest danger of the covid19 virus is the sensationalism and baseless fear that surrounds it and their corresponding impact on the world economy.

Its not great to have it around, a decent percentage of the world might eventually encounter it and a small percentage of those might die, but right now, it's a nothing. An easy news story to tell to the scientifically illiterate population, but nothing more. Worst case, we're maybe talking a semi serious pandemic with a few hundred million infected and a few tens of millions dead which will burn out by the end of the summer. If it didn't have a catchy name and some media hype we'd call that a bad flu season and get on with life.

For me, I'm not buying any stocks with any Chinese or major international exposure and otherwise getting on with things as normal. 3 months and it'll just be another scare story blown out of all proportion by populist news outlets. 1 year and no one will remember that it was even a thing. I'm sure as hell not changing my travel plans or buying a mask to wear in public. Rediculous.

 

[Royal27]

I do not know why I bother, but my daughter is a real epidemiologist who is in on the planning for a SW State's response. We have lots of phone conversations about COVID-19.

There are many corona viruses this is just one of them.

We do not know the mortality rate because that is the proportion of people who are infected who die. We do not know the number of people infected because to be diagnosed you need to be sick enough to seek medical treatment and then receive the test. There may be many people contracting it who feel crappy, but do not seek medical treatment. Thus, the true mortality rate is unknown, as is the number of infections. But, the undiagnosed mild cases are the ones who go the mall anyway, and this things spreads pretty easily. That is also a concern.

Of people who seek treatment and are diagnosed, it is more serious than the flue, but not like SARS. The overall mortality of those diagnosed is about 2-3% but it is age-specific and rather bad for people over 80 (I have seen estimates of 10-20%) and people who have compromised immune systems. One comment on this forum suggested that SARs was bad and now you do not hear about it so this is just a media frenzy. Well, SARs was contained through public health measures, some of which are no longer in place.

Her advice? Hand washing and all the other things one does during flu season. Do not fly to places that have outbreaks. And most importantly, get a flu shot because if you get the flu and need care you will be dealing with a medical system that is likely to be overwhelmed due to large numbers of suspected and real corona cases. There is concern, but do not to panic.

I find the "this is just the flu and fake news designed to make the President look bad" appalling, because it encourages people to ignore the basic precautions that could help them stay safe. It also makes people who ignore the science complicit in spreading infection, increasing the number of cases, and ultimately killing some old folks or infants with immune problems.

As for the stock market, you have CEOs making announcements of reduced profits due to supply chain disruptions. The news media has nothing to do with supply chains, but that is what is driving things. I also think that the U.S. was caught with its pants down due to this administrations disruptions of the CDC and international health organizations. They actually work, and are one of the reasons that diseases like Ebola have not reached the US (aside from a handful of cases that were isolated quickly). To try to bring them back now with political appointments is like laying off all the firefighters until there is a fire. And then summoning a bunch of people who do not know how operate the truck, pumps, and hoses at all, let alone the right way.

I did enjoy the comment that predicted that COVID-19 would die out during summer and return in the fall, because that is exactly what the 1918 flue pandemic did. Astute, but I hope that history does not repeat itself.

The President's rambling and downright weird assertions that everything is under control do not seem to be working. My financial planner (who has helped me plan for safaris) is inundated with panicked clients who are trying to sell stocks as fast as they can. Lots of frantic calls, with no end in site.

Bottom line is that if news is coming from a real media outlet, know the underlying science. That is available from your State's public health department, CDC, world health organization, and other such groups. Any other source of information is just a bunch of jiggery-pokery and I would ignore it, especially the conspiracy theories that are not relevant to anything.

My best wishes go to those planning trips to Africa that may be in jeopardy. I hope that this thing is contained and that you can enjoy the experience of a lifetime without disruption. And you now know what to do to reduce your chances of getting sick.

Jeff

Great post and you're obviously well informed. Thanks.

 

[Rimbaud]

Undoubtedly, the virus is subject to sensationalism in the media, like everything else. As for the markets, and the economy, check out the ISM data that will start to be released tomorrow. China ISM/PMI was out Friday. Below 50 is a sign of economic contraction. Institutional investors more highly value corporate data than government data - a belief that corp data is more authentic - so ISM reports are a key factor that links back to markets. How? If economy slows, corporate earnings slow and then stock prices come down. Focus on that and fade the noise (info w/o economic value). Also, every company with some problems that will interfere w earnings will blame the corona virus so be mindful of corporations using the virus to their advantage, too. Good investing is much like good hunting. Analyze. Read the wind. Watch. Move Slowly but decisively and take clean shots.

 

[flatwater bill]

The CDC website claims that its response to this threat is better coordinated more vigorous than any past effort. The media, and many Hollywood personalities claim Trump is to blame. Vastly differing opinions. It would not be beyond reason for this disease to be politicized.
Since first reported on Dec 31 in China, the disease has killed a known 3000 people.
Yesterday, worldwide road traffic deaths were 4000. Just yesterday.
Take care, take precautions, but take note: Media blitz is good for some, bad for others.
FWB

 

[sgt_zim]

2% mortality rate is not trivial. it isn't as bad as small pox by a wide stretch, but 2% is 20X greater than flu's mortality rate.

if it is as easily transmissible as it appears to be, it isn't a stretch to predict 3 million US deaths due to it in the next couple or 3 years. That's the equivalent of the entire city of Houston dying in the next 2-3 years. even without panic, the economic impact of that is going to be significant.

If the actual mortality rate turns out to be 5-8%, or even marginally higher, this will be a real problem.

I didn't start this thread to pound the panic button, only to get people to be on alert. Short of a vaccine showing up, the most effective preventative is hand-washing several times throughout the day if one is in public. That's not a great preventative, but it is risk mitigation. At this point, short of avoiding the public all together, that's all one can do.

 

[shootist~]

I just wanna know when the zombies are coming over the wall. Hopefully not before I make it to Africa (and back!).