Politics

[ActionBob]

Chart is correct. Average and total for the year is less in 2020 than 2019 if you drill down. Main reason was Covid and work at home policies that reduced demand. Still, it did not get cut by half when Biden took over.

I don't care for Biden and his policies. That being said, he does enough harm for most to realize without resorting to exaggerating facts.

Oil prices have impact beyond what you see at the pump. I know people in TX with oil leases that will not produce if barrel of oil is less than $70 due to cost etc.. Farmers I know in SD start making money if the price of oil goes up beyond a certain point as they sell more crops for ethanol production. So, for some high oil prices are a good thing.

Truth, even selling milk. Oil price goes up, drives up corn price pretty directly because of that very strong ethanol component....In the US at least, about the same amount of corn is used for ethanol production as is used for livestock feed! That is huge! Together accounting for something like 80 to 85%.... I'm going by memory and not looking it up so feel free to correct me....

But our costs go up dramatically as we purchase more corn than we produce. Both in the form of Silage (forage), and grain. Plus most other feed follows corn on pricing. Soybeans are often thought to be their own market but corn will take acres from beans and vice versa so they are closely tied together.

We also purchase very large amounts of diesel fuel. The difference between a Trump period semi load of fuel and a Biden period load will pay for a basic safari!

However we like to think we are more efficient than average and as most of our feed is still procured in the Upper Midwest we have a feed price advantage over places like California, the South East and even the North East.

End result being yes, oil goes up, fuel cost goes up, feed prices go up, and milk and beef go up. So yes my observation has been that we have had very good profits follow $100/barrel oil prices. However it is the lag effect that can be tough! Good banking relationships are important

 

[ActionBob]

Action Bob, we could build many reservoirs in the south east of the country to capture rain and storm water then pipe it west

We in the Great Lakes region are fortunate that Canada owns half the water in the Great Lakes. And we have a formal agreement on how that water is used.
or you can bet we would be piping that west.

I really think if such a project were to be undertaken, it would need to be captured run off water. i.e. dams built in river systems. I cannot see pulling that volume from natural lakes.... the World would need to be desperate for that to happen. Certainly surplus water captured downstream from lake outlets might be fair game.

 

[Hunt anything]

I really think if such a project were to be undertaken, it would need to be captured run off water. i.e. dams built in river systems. I cannot see pulling that volume from natural lakes.... the World would need to be desperate for that to happen. Certainly surplus water captured downstream from lake outlets might be fair game.

In my part of the Southeast every fall they do a winter draw down on the reservoirs controlled by Alabama Power Company, they lower the water levels by any were from 10 to 15 feet to make room for the winter/spring rains. Don’t know if it’s feasible to pump it out west.

 

[Altitude sickness]

The storm water run off can be re directed and made safe at its final destination

 

[ActionBob]

In my part of the Southeast every fall they do a winter draw down on the reservoirs controlled by Alabama Power Company, they lower the water levels by any were from 10 to 15 feet to make room for the winter/spring rains. Don’t know if it’s feasible to pump it out west.

It would take a lot! I was really talking more along the lines of the Missouri or even Mississippi as the sources.

However, look at the money going into other things! The Inflation Act. The Mitary. Other Public Works, social programs.

We could do such a project. It would just take money and manpower. Long term commitment. And public foresight, which is the near impossible part.

But keep taking out prime farmland to build cities, roads, Amazon warehouses. And especially solar panels.... And eventually the Country will realize it needs to secure food long term.

I believe the figures are that the use of commercial fertilizer (tripled in cost with the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and irrigation have doubled crop production on the planet. The fertilizer part is working itself back out as the West and especially the US has realized it needs reliable and more local supplies. But water is key.

 

[John Wasmuth]

As goes diesel so goes the rest of the world….

 

[Doug Hamilton]

Hmm...
I was contemplating if I should respond to such a superficial remark. But here goes, for what its worth.

I cannot give full credentials, as I cannot have a direct link between my activities on this site, my passion of hunting and my corporate world job. For the past 15 years I have been working in the Energy industry for a global gas and power producer. During the last 10 years, I have been informing Fortune 500 companies on energy markets, building risk management strategies, advising on hedging, structured products, long term price fixations, etc. on both power, gas, certificate, (fin) oil&coal products, for a multitude of European markets. I have been reasonably successful in this, helping companies beat average market levels. Part of being able to understand European gas markets, is having a very precise understanding of global oil market dynamics, such as US production levels.

In this context I have spoken in front of +500 large audiences to clarify the minutiae of some obscure market mechanism, or shared my own insights (sometimes against other analists) on what path I would follow through the market. There are multiple video's floating around of me, explaining the simplest market influencing topics, for sharing with the less knowledgeable B2B crowd. (I was mainly focusing on the "Giant" industrial segment). Currently I'm in charge of the origination (sales) of power and gas supply contracts (but also H2/ammonia, biomethane and biomass) to the whole of Germany. We are talking contracts with a yearly value between 50MEUR and 1BEUR.

So yes, I pretend to have a clue about oil production figures from the last 2 decades. And actually my original comment was superfluous, as you have already been proven multiple times wrong by @Tanks ' graph and others. It would perhaps do you some good, to travel and exchange with others a bit more.

Alright, I accept that you do in fact have a greater knowledge of the oil market than I do. My background is not in oil or economics. I made certain predictions after Biden's first week in office which seemed to be coming true, but I concede that the issue in s more complex than I understood.

As an American, however, I do still feel that the Biden administration has been destructive to this country which was my point when I stated that you did not live here.

We can agree on a mutual passion for the hunt.

Best regards,

Doug

 

[Doug Hamilton]

Chart is correct. Average and total for the year is less in 2020 than 2019 if you drill down. Main reason was Covid and work at home policies that reduced demand. Still, it did not get cut by half when Biden took over.

I don't care for Biden and his policies. That being said, he does enough harm for most to realize without resorting to exaggerating facts.

Oil prices have impact beyond what you see at the pump. I know people in TX with oil leases that will not produce if barrel of oil is less than $70 due to cost etc.. Farmers I know in SD start making money if the price of oil goes up beyond a certain point as they sell more crops for ethanol production. So, for some high oil prices are a good thing.

Okay. My education and experience are not in oil production or economics. You win, but I think we are agreeing on some points more than we disagree.

Take care,
Doug

 

[Altitude sickness]

Here is a direct link to where liberal policy does impact supply and there for demand.

Liberals traditionally do not allow new mines to be permitted. And if they get permits it takes 20 years to put a shovel in the ground.

So copper demand has skyrocketed due to Solar, Wind, electric grid construction. An average EV uses 200 pounds of copper.
An acre of solar panels uses tens of thousand of pounds of copper.

Does anyone else smell like he hypocrisy on the left.
One hand demand all vehicles be EV eventually
The other hand don’t allow the mining of the essential elements

Check spot copper prices in the last year

Copper can't be mined fast enough to electrify the US

Copper cannot be mined quickly enough to keep up with current U.S. policy guidelines to transition the country's electricity and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy, according to a University of Michigan study.

news.umich.edu

 

[Saul]

Here is a direct link to where liberal policy does impact supply and there for demand.

Liberals traditionally do not allow new mines to be permitted. And if they get permits it takes 20 years to put a shovel in the ground.

So copper demand has skyrocketed due to Solar, Wind, electric grid construction. An average EV uses 200 pounds of copper.
An acre of solar panels uses tens of thousand of pounds of copper.

Does anyone else smell like he hypocrisy on the left.
One hand demand all vehicles be EV eventually
The other hand don’t allow the mining of the essential elements

Check spot copper prices in the last year

Copper can't be mined fast enough to electrify the US

Copper cannot be mined quickly enough to keep up with current U.S. policy guidelines to transition the country's electricity and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy, according to a University of Michigan study.

news.umich.edu

As I see it, more a policy compromise between two competing factions of environmentalists on the left: those who want rapid decarbonization through rapid adoption of new technology and those who oppose ecological disruption by industrial operations.

Very similar to the debate on the left regarding affordable housing. There are those who want rapid increase in construction of new low cost housing, and they are opposed by those who think such rapid construction will lead to environmental damage.

 

[Hunt anything]

Here is a direct link to where liberal policy does impact supply and there for demand.

Liberals traditionally do not allow new mines to be permitted. And if they get permits it takes 20 years to put a shovel in the ground.

So copper demand has skyrocketed due to Solar, Wind, electric grid construction. An average EV uses 200 pounds of copper.
An acre of solar panels uses tens of thousand of pounds of copper.

Does anyone else smell like he hypocrisy on the left.
One hand demand all vehicles be EV eventually
The other hand don’t allow the mining of the essential elements

Check spot copper prices in the last year

Copper can't be mined fast enough to electrify the US

Copper cannot be mined quickly enough to keep up with current U.S. policy guidelines to transition the country's electricity and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy, according to a University of Michigan study.

news.umich.edu

I would add that with no new mines allowing for somewhat easier extraction the mines currently in production become somewhat depleted and the remaining minerals become much more expensive to extract and get to market. This is only speculation on my part as I know next to nothing about mining.

 

[VertigoBE]

Alright, I accept that you do in fact have a greater knowledge of the oil market than I do. My background is not in oil or economics. I made certain predictions after Biden's first week in office which seemed to be coming true, but I concede that the issue in s more complex than I understood.

As an American, however, I do still feel that the Biden administration has been destructive to this country which was my point when I stated that you did not live here.

We can agree on a mutual passion for the hunt.

Best regards,

Doug

Fair enough, and I hope I can convince you that my personal persuasions on politics are far closer to yours than you would think. The Biden administration has definitely been detrimental to the energy industry in the US, among many other fields where it has acted like a 5 year old.

And also my apologies for coming back so strong. I get fired up when I see false information on which I am actually a bit knowledgeable on. Water under the bridge and onto the next topic.

Cheers!

V.

 

[bowjijohn]

No longer a partnership of equals

That’s what I read in the body language of their meeting

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping: No longer a partnership of equals

Vladimir Putin’s visit to China was a show of strength, but in reality he needs Beijing's support for his war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

Let not the NATO countries fall so low

 

[ActionBob]

Does anyone else smell like he hypocrisy on the left

It stinks to High Heaven!

And it is all voodoo math.

 

[ActionBob]

As I see it, more a policy compromise between two competing factions of environmentalists on the left: those who want rapid decarbonization through rapid adoption of new technology and those who oppose ecological disruption by industrial operations.

Very similar to the debate on the left regarding affordable housing. There are those who want rapid increase in construction of new low cost housing, and they are opposed by those who think such rapid construction will lead to environmental damage.

And nowhere is anyone doing all the math!

What does the rainforest do for decorbonizaion? Are trees good or are they bad?

Because these Biden policies are cutting down trees and eliminating crop fields. They are destroying the planet in the name of "green energy" i.e. votes.

 

[Saul]

And nowhere is anyone doing all the math!

What does the rainforest do for decorbonizaion? Are trees good or are they bad?

Because these Biden policies are cutting down trees and eliminating crop fields. They are destroying the planet in the name of "green energy" i.e. votes.

I think there is a strong impetus on the left to do something now, with very little thought to knock-on effects. This is the result of leftwing politics being such a fractious coalition with an activist mentality.

 

[tarbe]

Let's not forget...a true Liberal is still a Capitalist.

A leftist is a Communist/Socialist.

We often use the terms interchangeably, but we should not.

 

[WAB]

I think there is a strong impetus on the left to do something now, with very little thought to knock-on effects. This is the result of leftwing politics being such a fractious coalition with an activist mentality.

Unfortunately many of the ‘solutions’ ignore the science. If they did a little macro engineering they would quickly realize that many are doing more harm than good.

 

[Saul]

Unfortunately many of the ‘solutions’ ignore the science. If they did a little macro engineering they would quickly realize that many are doing more harm than good.

I would say there is also a good deal of inherent optimism that we can invent ourselves out of any bind given enough resources, and substantial enough government interventions can soften the blow in the meantime. Personally, I take a quite dismal view toward this sort of problem solving.

 

[tarbe]

Unfortunately many of the ‘solutions’ ignore the science. If they did a little macro engineering they would quickly realize that many are doing more harm than good.

I have yet to meet a leftist who understands root-cause analysis or the necessity of positive cash-flow!!