Politics

[BSO Dave]

Building refineries also depends on State government permits. Blue States like CA will never allow more refineries regardless of who is President.

Maybe so... That's the very high price of electing democrats...

There are plenty of states that would gladly build/convert refineries if they had government assurances that there would be a return on their investments.

Just looking at the inflation adjusted data nothing more, nothing less.

I guess you missed the part where I mentioned that the chart does not address the spike during Brandon's administration which is self-inflicted.... National average was $2.60 a gallon under Trump in November 2019 and it's now $3.48... The all-time high under Brandon was $4.99 in June of 2022... Pricing at the pump should and could have been historically low throughout this time period...

 

[Woodcarver]

 

[Red Leg]

An observation from the front.

I have been both stunned and appalled at the degree to which the Russian infantry allows itself to be sent into what appear to be ever more wasteful assaults. The degree of obedient apathy this would indicate is almost incomprehensible to a Western military observer. This is not courage as we understand it.

I also would hasten to add, this is a very different thing than what the Imperial Japanese Army exhibited in WWII. For most of the War in the Pacific, Japanese force were out-numbered and on the defensive. In those battles, they generally fought with skill and determination literally to the last man in many cases. Suicide was often embraced in an effort to take out one last enemy soldier or to prevent capture.

What is going on in Ukraine is something different. One of the things being filmed ever more often by UA done operators are suicides by Russian troops. Often they are wounded. These incidents are clearly not efforts to prevent capture. Rather, it seems a means of simple escape are ultimate act of despondency.

Suicides happen in all armies, but I no of know historical parallel to this sort of thing. And remember, these are just the ones being recorded by a UA UAV. I can not help but wonder if this army is approaching some sort of breaking point. Dictators of all eras have exercised enormous power over their warriors, but at some point ....

Three of the least graphic examples. Since the start of this year, there have been 22 recorded incidents. There were 25 filmed over the previous two years with most of those toward the latter half of 2023.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/19bg46o

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1bg23ot

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1adavn8

The links are located in this thread on Reddit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1bkcrrc

 

[Tanks]

...
I guess you missed the part where I mentioned that the chart does not address the spike during Brandon's administration which is self-inflicted.... National average was $2.60 a gallon under Trump in November 2019 and it's now $3.48... The all-time high under Brandon was $4.99 in June of 2022... Chart aside, pricing at the pump should and could have been historically low throughout this time period...

You are looking at the raw numbers, not the inflation adjusted numbers. Also, you are missing the point I was making. Gas prices were NOT historically low during Trump administration compared to Clinton, Obama, Bush et. al. So, I doubt they would have been historically low if he was still President.

Would they have been lower than last two years? Most likely, though I would not use the words "historically low".

BTW, we were a net exporter of oil during 2020-2022. Who gets credit?

 

[BSO Dave]

Whoever here complaining about fuel prices better take a look at this:

nflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices (1978-2022)
Category: Gasoline (All types, Per gallon)​

Year​	Average Gasoline Prices by Year*​	Average Annual CPI for Gasoline**​	Gas Prices Adjusted for Inflation (In 2022 Dollars)​
1978​	0.652​	51.900​	$4.37​
1979​	0.882​	70.200​	$4.37​
1980​	1.221​	97.500​	$4.36​
1981​	1.353​	108.500​	$4.34​
1982​	1.281​	102.800​	$4.33​
1983​	1.225​	99.400​	$4.28​
1984​	1.198​	97.800​	$4.26​
1985​	1.196​	98.600​	$4.22​
1986​	0.931​	77.000​	$4.20​
1987​	0.957​	80.100​	$4.16​
1988​	0.964​	80.800​	$4.15​
1989​	1.060​	88.500​	$4.17​
1990​	1.217​	101.000​	$4.19​
1991​	1.196​	99.200​	$4.19​
1992​	1.190​	99.000​	$4.18​
1993​	1.173​	97.700​	$4.17​
1994​	1.174​	98.200​	$4.16​
1995​	1.205​	99.800​	$4.20​
1996​	1.288​	105.900​	$4.23​
1997​	1.291​	105.800​	$4.24​
1998​	1.115​	91.600​	$4.23​
1999​	1.221​	100.100​	$4.24​
2000​	1.563​	128.600​	$4.23​
2001​	1.531​	124.000​	$4.29​
2002​	1.441​	116.000​	$4.32​
2003​	1.638​	135.100​	$4.22​
2004​	1.923​	159.700​	$4.19​
2005​	2.338​	194.700​	$4.18​
2006​	2.635​	219.900​	$4.17​
2007​	2.849​	237.959​	$4.16​
2008​	3.317​	277.457​	$4.16​
2009​	2.401​	201.555​	$4.14​
2010​	2.836​	238.594​	$4.13​
2011​	3.577​	301.694​	$4.12​
2012​	3.695​	311.470​	$4.13​
2013​	3.584​	302.577​	$4.12​
2014​	3.425​	290.889​	$4.09​
2015​	2.510​	212.007​	$4.12​
2016​	2.204​	187.602​	$4.08​
2017​	2.469​	211.770​	$4.05​
2018​	2.794​	240.599​	$4.04​
2019​	2.698​	232.003​	$4.04​
2020​	2.242​	194.130​	$4.02​
2021​	3.133​	264.017​	$4.13​
2022​	4.192​	347.747​	$4.19​

​

​

​

​

@Tanks

By the way, as @SaintPanzer discovered, this entire calculator that you two are basing your argument on is completely off.... Numbers are not even close.... LOL...

 

[BSO Dave]

BTW, we were a net exporter of oil during 2020-2022. Who gets credit?

Once again, you missed or ignored the facts concerning the U.S. being a net exporter of energy... If this was a good thing, why isn't the Brandon Administration running with it? Because in this case, being a net exporter is a bad thing for U.S. consumers in this current economic environment and they know it..

 

[WAB]

Except, it didn't seem to have made any significant difference (1-2% better) during the 4 years of his Presidency.

Policies that provide certainty and encourage investment take much longer than four years to result in increased oil production or processing.

 

[Tanks]

Policies that provide certainty and encourage investment take much longer than four years to result in increased oil production or processing.

I agree, hence why I took exception to "historical low" comment.

Also, we will not really have certainty as long as we have two parties that are diametrically opposed to each other. Neither party really cares about the country, if one side is for something then the other is against it regardless of its benefits to the country. That makes our allies in the world stage very nervous as well as making long term planning by various industries difficult.

 

[PARA45]

I’ve been driving a diesel truck close to 8 years now, and it was always cheaper than reg gas. Not so much now. My payment at the pump does not lie. Regardless of whose fault it is, I’m paying more now.

 

[PARA45]

 

[Mekaniks]

I thought some of you might find this interesting and pertinent to some of the recent discussions.
Really the party that is elected to the White House has very little impact on the markets long term…..
Courtesy of Morning Star…

 

[CoElkHunter]

View attachment 594685

I’d vote for the red coated Gentleman on the right before I EVER voted for Brandon. And where’s P.T. Barnum? I’d vote for him too as he has experience running circuses like we’ve been seeing with Brandon’s administration. LOL

 

[SaintPanzer]

www.usinflationcalculator.com
btw this chart stops 2022.

I've only got more confused.

The calculator at that link gives gives the same number:

But the gas price calculator says that the cost would be $3.62 in 2024 (cumulative rate of inflation 274%). But it also reports $4.20 in 2022 (cumulative rate of inflation = 351.6%). Does that mean prices have dropped in the last year and a half? Did I miss the great deflation of 2023?

I'm a History Major, not a Statistics Major...but something there is unconvincing.

There are several ways to calculate inflation. And focusing on any one commodity is really not as helpful as you'd like. Most people have a finite income... the money they can buy things with. I can decide to buy food, or gas, or ammo, or... But it's like this: If I had one dollar to spend in 1986, what could I buy with that? Well, with gas at 0.929, I could buy a gallon of gas and have change left over. Or, I could buy something else, and not have any left over. What chunk of my income is based on "needs", and what is "disposable"?

But with inflation, I would need $2.83 to have the same value as that 1986 dollar (using the CPI Calculator), and one thing I know: Today, $2.83 isn't buying me a gallon of gas, let alone leaving me change.

Oh, and before anyone asks, I'm focusing on 1986 for a reason. In the summer of 1986, I was in exile on a small island off the coast of South Carolina, and had very limited information of what was happening in the world around me. I remember gas being a LOT cheaper in August than it was in May. I distinctly remember my shock when I saw the price of gas. I worked at a full service gas station the summer prior, so those prices were pretty firm in my mind. Do you want to talk about Presidents directly influencing supply? Try re-flagging some Kuwaiti tankers. But I digress. The point is, I remember that price drop, because it was so shocking to me at the time. 0.93 might have been the average for the year, but I distinctly remember the cost being $0.679 at one point. Suddenly, I could fill up the gas tank, and have some money left over for a soda. Or was it ammo?

 

[Doubleplay]

I've only got more confused.

The calculator at that link gives gives the same number:
View attachment 594706
But the gas price calculator says that the cost would be $3.62 in 2024 (cumulative rate of inflation 274%). But it also reports $4.20 in 2022 (cumulative rate of inflation = 351.6%). Does that mean prices have dropped in the last year and a half? Did I miss the great deflation of 2023?

I'm a History Major, not a Statistics Major...but something there is unconvincing.

There are several ways to calculate inflation. And focusing on any one commodity is really not as helpful as you'd like. Most people have a finite income... the money they can buy things with. I can decide to buy food, or gas, or ammo, or... But it's like this: If I had one dollar to spend in 1986, what could I buy with that? Well, with gas at 0.929, I could buy a gallon of gas and have change left over. Or, I could buy something else, and not have any left over. What chunk of my income is based on "needs", and what is "disposable"?

But with inflation, I would need $2.83 to have the same value as that 1986 dollar (using the CPI Calculator), and one thing I know: Today, $2.83 isn't buying me a gallon of gas, let alone leaving me change.

Oh, and before anyone asks, I'm focusing on 1986 for a reason. In the summer of 1986, I was in exile on a small island off the coast of South Carolina, and had very limited information of what was happening in the world around me. I remember gas being a LOT cheaper in August than it was in May. I distinctly remember my shock when I saw the price of gas. I worked at a full service gas station the summer prior, so those prices were pretty firm in my mind. Do you want to talk about Presidents directly influencing supply? Try re-flagging some Kuwaiti tankers. But I digress. The point is, I remember that price drop, because it was so shocking to me at the time. 0.93 might have been the average for the year, but I distinctly remember the cost being $0.679 at one point. Suddenly, I could fill up the gas tank, and have some money left over for a soda. Or was it ammo?

The calculator is not wrong.
It's based on average prices not spikes and drops.

 

[Rock63]

Just an observation on the fuel price table; it does not reflect the data on tables and charts published by the US Gov and on average fuel prices by year. 2007-2010 fuel price averages are understated significantly. I didn’t evaluate the remaining data.

 

[WAB]

I’ve been driving a diesel truck close to 8 years now, and it was always cheaper than reg gas. Not so much now. My payment at the pump does not lie. Regardless of whose fault it is, I’m paying more now.

If you ever get ultra low sulfur diesel cheaper than gasoline it’s an anomaly or a tax effect. The disastrous ULSD regs produced zero environmental benefit over LSD and ensured that diesel production costs would be higher than gasoline in perpetuity.

 

[Finprof]

If you start at 1970 when the price was 36 cents a gallon the 2022 adjusted price was 2.86.
Prices were unusually high in 1978, which was right after the Arab oil embargo and at the beginning of a vicious inflation period.
Although the government figures say 36 cents a gallon in 1970 I was typically paying 29 cents a gallon with some periods of gas war at 19 cents. I bought my first car in 1970 and, unfortunately, have a very good memory.

 

[Wheels]

 

[meigsbucks]

Attached are the gas prices per government number

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/xls/pswrgvwall.xls

 

[SaintPanzer]

The calculator is not wrong.
It's based on average prices not spikes and drops.

Not saying the calculator is wrong. I understand averages, not spikes and drops, and I'm taking for granted that the average price for fuel in 1986 was 93 cents.

What I am asserting, however, is the chart does not match the purported value in the table. 93 cents in 1986 dollars, using the calculator provided at the website should be $2.48 in 2022 dollars. However, the chart states 93 cents adjusted for inflation in 2022 is over $4. From this I can conclude that either the chart is incorrect, or that the Government provided CPI data is understating the actual inflation rate. The cynic in me thinks the latter is more likely, but the former states it is using Government provided CPI, so that shouldn't matter. Either way, I don't believe the chart is useful.