What is the future of the fine firearms market

[PARA45]

I've never been a fan of Rolex watches. I however, own two real Breitling watches, a Super Ocean which is a tank of a watch and a titanium Aerospace. That I bought when I was single and had money.

 

[Rare Breed]

Fine firearms differ markedly from all other investments in that an arbitrary whim of government can instantly reduce value, This may take the form of outright bans, calibre limitations, restrictions on the number of firearms owned etc. Likewise, unlike artworks etc, even currently there are significant hurdles to overcome to sell into the international collector market.

So my take is that if you want that gorgeous H&H Royal 470NE double. then more power to you Just enjoy it for what it is and don't kid yourself that it's an investment.

i know we have discussed this before…it seems most of us are like me…we love beautiful rifles but want to make sure we are still hunters meaning we don’t buy our nice rifles to just leave them in the safe. please don’t misunderstand me nothing wrong with collectors who would never hunt with their fine rifles…just not me

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

you would have to kidnap me to get me into a .243 man bun convention. .243, to big for field mice, not big enough for large deer and not even in the running for anything bigger.

View attachment 569417

@leslie hetrick
Someone once said how do you tell the difference between a 243 and a bucket of shit. The answer is the bucket.
Oh that's right it was me that said it.
Ha ha ha ha ha
Bob

 

[Hunter4752001]

@Rare Breed We're exactly on the same page. I'm a hunter not a collector. None of my rifles are collector pieces or investment vehicles. Doesn't stop me from considering the issues around investment pieces, but it's not something I want to indulge in.

 

[rookhawk]

Fine firearms differ markedly from all other investments in that an arbitrary whim of government can instantly reduce value, This may take the form of outright bans, calibre limitations, restrictions on the number of firearms owned etc. Likewise, unlike artworks etc, even currently there are significant hurdles to overcome to sell into the international collector market.

So my take is that if you want that gorgeous H&H Royal 470NE double. then more power to you Just enjoy it for what it is and don't kid yourself that it's an investment.

Things the government can take from you that follows logically:

-Precious metals (Government banned personal ownership in 1934?)
-Fossils
-Antiquities
-Native American art
-Ivory products, including pianos, carvings
-Bitcoins (under civil forfeiture)
-Cash over $10,000 if undeclared
-Bonds (in the case of those that invested in low-risk 1st position General Motors bonds instead of high risk GM stock in 2008…but the gov’t screwed the bond holder to benefit the stock holder)
-Diamonds if determined from conflict areas
-Artwork, if lawfully obtained but it was seized and sold by the Nazis 20 owners ago
-Uranium if discovered on your land
-Water, if for the public good.
-Your land, if municipal rule determines its better suited for a private enterprise they prefer
-Your buying power via fiat currency, central bank inflation
-Your children
-Your pets
-Your vehicle if it fails emissions
-Your classic car if a component was determined to have has a mechanics lien prior to your purchase


I could go on for hours and hours creating an exhaustive list of assets that are insecure that would eventually include all of them. Every last one is insecure from devaluation or government seizure on a variety of legal theories.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but suggesting fine arms are not investments because they can be seized or banned is a terrible argument. Everything can be seized or banned, most of it has been seized or banned at one time or another in the USA.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Very good counterpoints Rook.

 

[HankBuck]

Then the question is, at least on some of the lower priced category of collectible firearms, is how much and quickly will they go up in value? It seemed the price increases of many pre '64 Winchester M70s slowed when Winchester introduced their new CRF action in quality made rifles in '92? Ruger is now making Marlins and apparently of better quality than at least the later ones made by Marlin. Rem Arms is again making the Remington 700s and others. I looked at one the other day. They had two. Smooth action BDL with a beautiful walnut stock for $1050. Two of ten rifles out of hundreds with a walnut stock in that one LGS and nothing close to that price. Same quality as an original 700? I don't know, maybe not, but the market will eventually tell us. Smith and Wesson Model 29 .44 Mag. I've always wanted one or similar. Just as a random example, one LGS had an original 29-3 with a scratched barrel for $1K. Another 29-3 in better shape for $1,075. Another LGS had several NEW SS 629s for $1175 and NEW blued 29s for $1225. And online prices are way less than those. Honestly, the new ones seemed to be of better "mechanical" quality than the older 29-3s. So, does one buy a newer firearm of perhaps somewhat better quality or buy an older and maybe "rougher" firearm and hope it goes up in value? I think the older Smiths had gone up in value a lot BEFORE Smith started making the exact same models again. Same with the older Colt Pythons before Colt started making them again. I don't know the answer? You would know a lot more than I would about it. I'm just commenting on a microcosm of what I'm personally seeing in the LOWER END of potentially collectible firearms.

CoElkHunter, regarding the newer S&W model 29s vs. the 29-2 or 29-3 they rarely have an action or trigger as smooth - usually a heavier trigger pull as well. They may function the same and even be as accurate but they are certainly Not an improvement. Plus, they have the “lock” - that absolutely stupid, useless junk hole that gave them some protection from lawsuits (or so they hoped. The New Colt Pythons are also highly functional and more “robust” then the original Pythons - they have also dropped in value since reintroduced 5 years ago. The original “real” Pythons are a beautiful and smooth action revolver with great triggers. While they do Not hold up to a steady diet of full magnum loads - that doesn’t matter.....you don’t buy a Ferrari because it can tow a boat

 

[HankBuck]

Things the government can take from you that follows logically:

-Precious metals (Government banned personal ownership in 1934?)
-Fossils
-Antiquities
-Native American art
-Ivory products, including pianos, carvings
-Bitcoins (under civil forfeiture)
-Cash over $10,000 if undeclared
-Bonds (in the case of those that invested in low-risk 1st position General Motors bonds instead of high risk GM stock in 2008…but the gov’t screwed the bond holder to benefit the stock holder)
-Diamonds if determined from conflict areas
-Artwork, if lawfully obtained but it was seized and sold by the Nazis 20 owners ago
-Uranium if discovered on your land
-Water, if for the public good.
-Your land, if municipal rule determines its better suited for a private enterprise they prefer
-Your buying power via fiat currency, central bank inflation
-Your children
-Your pets
-Your vehicle if it fails emissions
-Your classic car if a component was determined to have has a mechanics lien prior to your purchase


I could go on for hours and hours creating an exhaustive list of assets that are insecure that would eventually include all of them. Every last one is insecure from devaluation or government seizure on a variety of legal theories.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but suggesting fine arms are not investments because they can be seized or banned is a terrible argument. Everything can be seized or banned, most of it has been seized or banned at one time or another in the USA.

True in theory, but does anyone believe firearms will Not be on the Top of Governments list - most likely to be seized? I agree it wouldn’t factor in to my collecting decisions - enjoy freedoms while you have them and don’t worry about every possibility

 

[rookhawk]

True in theory, but does anyone believe firearms will Not be on the Top of Governments list - most likely to be seized? I agree it wouldn’t factor in to my collecting decisions - enjoy freedoms while you have them and don’t worry about every possibility

NOT the fine firearms that I believe are investment grade as functional art, as discussed throughout this thread. Even in gun-control countries like the UK, best guns are still legal. Even in Australia that seized arms in the 1990s, there are still investment grade double rifles, shotguns, and single shots.

Not trying to sound disagreeable in my disagreement, but these are pretty weak arguments. I’d be far more worried about investment cash in a Paypal account, or AAA rated corporate bonds, or ROTH IRA holdings, or a crypto wallet when it comes to security and integrity of an investment than I would tangible alternative asset classes.

If you have a trove of uzis, 1980s era HKs, galils, etc…yeah, they are coming for them. But there is nothing particularly hand-crafted about semi-autos with very, very few exceptions. (e.g. Cosmis)

I’m reminded of the first time I bought a gold coin back in the 1990s where the sale paperwork was far more onerous than a private party gun transaction. All investments are wrought with peril and past performance is no indication of future results. But you could do worse than buying alternative assets as a portion of a well balanced portfolio, especially since alternative assets are way more fun to play with.

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

In keeping with my previous post here and outside the realm of "fine" firearms but in the financial zip code of most buyers, is the Winchester M70. Winchester has been manufacturing their "new" CRF version for over 30 years now. How many younger buyers even new that Winchester made a push feed rifle post '63 through 1991? I see a LOT of Winchester M70s for sale on GunJoker and other sites with no photos of the serial number or the bolt face. The sellers are not describing the action. So, the uninformed younger buyer thinks he's buying a Winchester CRF for $1200, when in fact, he/she is getting a push feed Winchester really valued at about $800. Not a financial disaster for me/us but for a young kid wanting a CRF, it's a kick in the teeth. I know it would have been for me when in my 20s something.

@CoElkHunter
When you were in your 20s a precusion gun was better than the 2nd hand flint locks.. The model 70 was still in the future.
HA HA HA HA HA
Bob

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

Flewis — it was a Metaphor !! My Mom would kill me

@HankBuck
Mom may have killed you but I reckon dad would have love it
Ha ha ha ha ha
Bob

 

[HankBuck]

NOT the fine firearms that I believe are investment grade as functional art, as discussed throughout this thread. Even in gun-control countries like the UK, best guns are still legal. Even in Australia that seized arms in the 1990s, there are still investment grade double rifles, shotguns, and single shots.

Not trying to sound disagreeable in my disagreement, but these are pretty weak arguments. I’d be far more worried about investment cash in a Paypal account, or AAA rated corporate bonds, or ROTH IRA holdings, or a crypto wallet when it comes to security and integrity of an investment than I would tangible alternative asset classes.

If you have a trove of uzis, 1980s era HKs, galils, etc…yeah, they are coming for them. But there is nothing particularly hand-crafted about semi-autos with very, very few exceptions. (e.g. Cosmis)

I’m reminded of the first time I bought a gold coin back in the 1990s where the sale paperwork was far more onerous than a private party gun transaction. All investments are wrought with peril and past performance is no indication of future results. But you could do worse than buying alternative assets as a portion of a well balanced portfolio, especially since alternative assets are way more fun to play with.

ROOKHAWK, you bring up good points worth giving thought too and I’ve not really ever considered some of your points. I don’t sit around worry about “what if’s” but that’s not because I completely dismiss the possibility.

 

[BeeMaa]

The time could be coming to find that luxury watch you have always wanted. I’ll be looking for a Silver Snooy or Apollo-Soyuz 35th.

https://fortune.com/europe/2023/11/...tches-2-year-low-luxury-slump-lvmh-gucci/amp/

 

[Altitude sickness]

I just bought an affordable example (to me) 1949 Barchetta. I wanted one for a long time. they’re hard to find, and I probably bought at the peak for prices. But if the slumps coming in a few months. And more come on the market, people will come out of the woodwork for them and I won’t get one. So I bought it even though shipping was high.

 

[PARA45]

I just bought an affordable example (to me) 1949 Barchetta. I wanted one for a long time. they’re hard to find, and I probably bought at the peak for prices. But if the slumps coming in a few months. And more come on the market, people will come out of the woodwork for them and I won’t get one. So I bought it even though shipping was high.

Pictures please.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

FYI to the Rolex guys, someone is selling one on the Twenty four hour campfire site for $4k. I don't know a Rolex from a Timex so you will have to do your own research if interested.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Here it is PARA45. It’s an affordable example. It’s a Christmas present for my wife
We have dreamed of having a barchetta. but instead my wife has a little Mercedes spider that we bought to placate the want. We can’t afford an early Barchetta

 

[Whit]

I’m seeing folks in the past couple pages talking about fairly affordable guns. Why not try a gun at same cost that may increase in value?

Examples:

In several calibers, you can find a pre-64 model 70 in great condition for the same price as a brand new one, +/- 10%.

A like new Dakota is half the price as a made to order Parkwest, but the Dakotas are already collectible and have doubled or more in value.

Point being: even if you’re not sure if it’s going to be a collectible, why not spend the same money to have a chance of an upside?

What would you recommend to buy if someone (me) was interested in acquiring rifles as an alternative asset class? I've picked up a couple German weapons with an eye to eventually selling (recognizing that market inequalities do exist; i.e. German DR's have much higher valuation in the States and a lower price point than say, drillings). However, wanting to branch out into American weapons and target my German weapons collecting efforts.

 

[Whit]

Appreciate the free advice, @rookhawk

 

[rookhawk]

What would you recommend to buy if someone (me) was interested in acquiring rifles as an alternative asset class? I've picked up a couple German weapons with an eye to eventually selling (recognizing that market inequalities do exist; i.e. German DR's have much higher valuation in the States and a lower price point than say, drillings). However, wanting to branch out into American weapons and target my German weapons collecting efforts.

@Whit I like German guns quite a bit, but they are dime a dozen and often times sell shockingly, absurdly cheap. For 1910-1970 era German guns, price is in the eyes of the beholder. What that means is you need to buy them VERY cheap to not take on a lot of risk. If you buy them very cheap (meaning you pass on 95% of them), there is always a non-collector that sees it, is completely dazzled by the $10,000 in engraving on the gun, and thinks nothing of buying it for $3000 just based on beauty and the modern value of the engraving labor. But you show that same gun to a very savvy collector in the German Gun Collector's Association and they'll pass on it.

The only ultra premium vintage german gun that comes to mind is an August Schuler clamshell action double rifle. Those are going to make a strong showing in the coming decades.

Everything above, you can exchange the word German for Austrian Ferlach and the same thing is true.

Exception to all of this: After 1980 Heym and others came on the scene making MODERN guns. Those can be great investments because they are still current production and therefore even the non-collector wants them because they are less expensive than new. Heym double rifles are great investments whether due to non-collector demand, or collector demand. As long as new prices continue to go up, they pull up the value of the secondary market. Its all a bonus if its prolifically engraved and deemed one-of-a-kind which many of them are. (bringing collector demand) VertigoBE bought such a Heym at auction in London for $20,000 less than fair market value in my opinion.