Geopolitics, Global Economy, and Hunting Safaris

[rookhawk]

I’m more than confused about Hunting Deals and their lack thereof right now?

1.) with COVID shutdowns, any safari this year is at risk of happening.

2.) with civil unrest by socialists and antis in most of the West, importation of trophies is totally up in the air and after the elections will get worse assuming any political gains in any area by leftist leaders.

3.) the world economy is 100% no-growth since 2017 if you ignore 5 companies: google, Tesla, apple, Microsoft, Facebook. The bailouts are delaying the bubble bursts while adding $38,000 of new debt per US taxpayer. 20% of the US workforce is unemployed in the past 12 weeks.

So given that the world is eating an unprecedented sh&t-sandwich and it’s going to get worse before it gets better, why are 2020 hunting safaris so overpriced? The best alternative to no client visits is what? Selling the animals next year when it’s worse? Waiting until trophy export is forever banned? Waiting for a possible Democrat sweep to improve business next year? Waiting until no airlines allow flights with guns?

I DON’T GET IT?

Note: it doesn’t effect my costs because I do my own thing and visit different countries, but I just don’t understand RSA right now. It should be a global going out of business sale and prices seem worse than 5 years ago.

 

[Hank2211]

This isn't restricted to RSA. I've experienced the same thing looking at Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Ethiopia has actually gotten more expensive.

I can only assume that outfitters have decided that they will not get more hunters by lowering their prices, so the hunters who do come are avid, and will pay the regular freight or more. I have no direct knowledge, but I'd think that while this may be the case for specialist hunts, it certainly isn't the case with respect to general RSA plains game hunts.

It may also be that since no one can realistically travel to Africa now, there's no point in lowering prices - yet. It will be interesting to see what happens once the bulk of Africa re-opens, and people don't have to quarantine once they get home. Having said that, Tanzania has re-opened, and I don't see any deals coming out of there.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Where are you looking, I am seeing great hunt offers in both SA and Zimbabwe, sable at $4500, two companies in Zim offering buffalo hunts at around $6k. They cant operate at a loss, what more do you want?

 

[Tanks]

It doesn't matter what kind of deal is offered if clients can not get there. Right now the only place I am aware of that is open is Tanzania. Not to mention airlines flying to those countries.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

True, but add Zambia to the accessible list, and I hear Namibia is also open via direct flights from Germany. All of these African hunting destination countries down played, if not totally ignored the local hunter. That was very foolish because money is money and today the subscribers to the Zimbabwe and South African special offers that may well save these operations will have to be local. If I were them I would be punting local hunts strongly right now, not just upon price, but in the couching of the offer.

 

[Desperatezulu]

Maybe a slightly different slant on things - prices for locals (i.e. quoted in local currency for local meat hunters - call it cull prices if you like) have certainly come down. The fact remains that sport hunting is still forbidden in RSA - hunting for subsistence and/or wildlife management is allowed. One may not travel between provinces.
This is the official position, according to the govt.

Of course their ability to enforce this is little to none, so people here are carrying on with their hunting activities, obviously each hunter deciding on his appetite for risk versus the regulations. But there are deals to be had.
Currently international air travel is banned in/out of RSA indefinitely so not that easy for foreign hunters to get here, irrespective of deals being offered.

I do believe that as we approach the end of the season, there may well be lots of hunting specials as the animal numbers will be way higher than planned and the owners need to manage their herd numbers and sustain their grazing etc. Where there are 'put & take' operations which often stock above the carrying capacity of the land, then the situation will be more pressing as the owners will get to the point of buying in feed to prevent starvation.

On the flip side, we have had good rains this year and the grazing and browsing is in far better condition than it has been for the past 5 years or so in general. So carrying capacity is up and operators may be choosing to retain their numbers and focus on next year.

Sadly the current situation is not good for conservation overall - bear in mind the mantra "if it pays, it stays". With people in the rural areas bearing the brunt of the recession and hunting demand being depressed, poaching pressure will be way up...

 

[Zambezi]

Operators are caught in a tight spot. Those that have deferred hunts with paid clients have a contract in place for X animal at X price. Everyone is happy... now they drop their prices and new clients book for next year at X less 20%... existing client feels shafted but the new client gets a bargain.
Now bare in mind that every thing has increased in price (flights, food, diesel, ammo, etc etc) and the operator has had zero income for over a year. So in order to get a new client (ONE THAT WAS PREPARED TO HUNT AT THE CURRENT PRICES) the operator should drop his rates and be financially burdened for another year or two on top of this current crippling year. Believe me, if they could drop their prices they probably would. The idea that operators work on huge profit margins are simply not true for the most part.

Still, we all love to get a bargain and I am no different. The current overstocking of properties may well lead to a few bargains, and I'll be looking out for those once we are able to travel out of our provinces. The problem is not so much that price it is the opportunities. Ask any local biltong / meat hunter and he'll tell you what a pain in the ass it is every year to find availability on the numerous game farms.

 

[Tanks]

Operators are caught in a tight spot. Those that have deferred hunts with paid clients have a contract in place for X animal at X price. Everyone is happy... now they drop their prices and new clients book for next year at X less 20%... existing client feels shafted but the new client gets a bargain.,.

Not to mention it sets their "new pricing" for years to come. I have some commercial property in Manhattan. One did stay empty for a while after the previous tenant left. People asked me "why not lower the T&C and rent" and you could rent it right away. I said then I would be stuck with the new base price for years even if the market picked up. Signed a 10 year contract for the property that made the wait well worth while.

 

[rookhawk]

Where are you looking, I am seeing great hunt offers in both SA and Zimbabwe, sable at $4500, two companies in Zim offering buffalo hunts at around $6k. They cant operate at a loss, what more do you want?

Honestly?


Option 1: Hunts for as little as one cent. If the cost to operate is sunk already, and the animal tags are already purchased, it would seem any price above free would be a good thing to reduce losses. So that price starts at $.01 and goes as high as possible for the outfitter while still getting a booking! But they aren’t getting bookings, so the price is too high.

Option 2: cost to operate plus a cent. If new costs must be incurred to provide a hunt, then whatever that number is that exceeds total operating costs and enters profit would be the floor price for their time. No one is booking with an offer that exceeds the costs to operate and since there are no bookings, the cost to operate for just one customer is higher. (Rather than lowering prices and booking three in a row)


Of corse neither of these are happening, but neither is practical capitalism. Certainly the tribal areas aren’t giving discounts on quota in order to sell it for any price to operators.

I’m not seeing “the deals” in reaction to the global economy this year. It seems business as usual. That’s strange to me. And all the operators costs are lower this year as they did no travel, marketing, etc. Logically that savings should be passed on in lower prices if they aren’t getting bookings?

 

[Zambezi]

Honestly?


Option 1: Hunts for as little as one cent. If the cost to operate is sunk already, and the animal tags are already purchased, it would seem any price above free would be a good thing to reduce losses. So that price starts at $.01 and goes as high as possible for the outfitter while still getting a booking! But they aren’t getting bookings, so the price is too high.

Option 2: cost to operate plus a cent. If new costs must be incurred to provide a hunt, then whatever that number is that exceeds total operating costs and enters profit would be the floor price for their time. No one is booking with an offer that exceeds the costs to operate and since there are no bookings, the cost to operate for just one customer is higher. (Rather than lowering prices and booking three in a row)


Of corse neither of these are happening, but neither is practical capitalism. Certainly the tribal areas aren’t giving discounts on quota in order to sell it for any price to operators.

I’m not seeing “the deals” in reaction to the global economy this year. It seems business as usual. That’s strange to me. And all the operators costs are lower this year as they did no travel, marketing, etc. Logically that savings should be passed on in lower prices if they aren’t getting bookings?

I think the point is most operators have ZERO or next to zero in their bank accounts after this. They still have to run a business with no income for a year. Think of your local car dealership... still have to pay staff, utilities, running costs etc etc... When they can finally offer a hunt they must do it at reduced rate? I bet you they will be fully booked for a long time as the hunters are itching to get into the bush after a year of sitting at home. Why should they give half price hunts when there is going to be a loooooong waiting list of clients?

That's my take on it anyway. I may be wrong...

 

[rookhawk]

I think the point is most operators have ZERO or next to zero in their bank accounts after this. They still have to run a business with no income for a year. Think of your local car dealership... still have to pay staff, utilities, running costs etc etc... When they can finally offer a hunt they must do it at reduced rate? I bet you they will be fully booked for a long time as the hunters are itching to get into the bush after a year of sitting at home. Why should they give half price hunts when there is going to be a loooooong waiting list of clients?

That's my take on it anyway. I may be wrong...

there is a piece of the equation that is like a hotel. You never get to resell a room that was vacant last night. Same with game that dies or declines before sale.

Assuming Covid goes away, I believe next year will be the worst year ever for safaris and demand will diminish due to new bans and regulations.

I don’t see urgency priced in this year.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Rookhawk, lets assume the Safari Operators are taking your 'costs plus one cent' approach. They still have to come up with that estimate before hand, otherwise what offer do they put before us? I believe a buffalo hunt for $6k is extremely good value, why do you doubt that? Salaries, fuel, running camp, trackers, etc, etc. i also believe there is a need for good spirit in all this - who would expect an operator to put on his best show for a pittance in the name of a 'good bargain'? It can go too far and I think what you are proposing is simply too far. This is not a mega bucks business, these people ask a fair living.

 

[rookhawk]

Rookhawk, lets assume the Safari Operators are taking your 'costs plus one cent' approach. They still have to come up with that estimate before hand, otherwise what offer do they put before us? I believe a buffalo hunt for $6k is extremely good value, why do you doubt that? Salaries, fuel, running camp, trackers, etc, etc. i also believe there is a need for good spirit in all this - who would expect an operator to put on his best show for a pittance in the name of a 'good bargain'? It can go too far and I think what you are proposing is simply too far. This is not a mega bucks business, these people ask a fair living.

I don’t dispute that a no-fence, wild buffalo for $6000 is a good deal. That’s a great deal. Especially if in Zim or a nation where quota must be purchased.

Right now, I think it’s a battle for long term survival. I believe the amount of hunting capacity (lodges, PHs, staff) has 300% the capacity compared to 2017-2019 actual demand. Demand is decreasing. Prices must go down.

Now in 10 years, I think demand will be 1/3rd of what it is today due to regulations and restrictions making safaris nearly impossible or unpalatable for the customer. Will prices be more or less then?

The only way prices will go up is if supply is less than demand. 6/7ths of Operators need to exit the market to drive prices up. If they want to survive long enough to be “one of the few remaining” and have higher profit margins, they need to tread water when others do not. This will only happen if they get bookings above cost while accepting lesser profits.

This is my thoughts on RSA. I don’t think Tanzania and Zim are the same because people are more inclined to pay their friends a living wage for the privilege of hunting with them. These more expensive safaris are more personal and relationship driven. For me in wilderness areas, I want to hunt with who I want to hunt with and I’ll go if I can afford that privilege. But that’s not the same as a commodity, like a 10,000 hectare East Cape safari with a cookie cutter lodge and commoditized pretty-good staff, accommodations, and services. The forecast for RSA demand looks bleak to me (I sure hope I’m wrong) but I don’t see pricing that is as low as 2014-2015 prices featured on AH today.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

I sure hope you are wrong, no offence meant, because along with the safari operators that disappear from the SA scene, so too will the game. For SA it is today a farm viability model to extend into game hunting, and it supports a huge game breeding and auction industry. It is not everyones cup of tea, but perhaps as you say it can survive upon a commoditised lesser-cost safari basis. That leaves the free chase safaris to the wilder places in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Tanzania, Mozambique, etc. i will say that having a son in law and friends in the SA industry, it is far from all farm place-and-take. There are some massive areas within the fences and the habitat is conducive. It is as 'Africa' for plains game as it gets. I havent mentioned Namibia and Botswana because I know nothing about them.

 

[rookhawk]

I sure hope you are wrong, no offence meant, because along with the safari operators that disappear from the SA scene, so too will the game. For SA it is today a farm viability model to extend into game hunting, and it supports a huge game breeding and auction industry. It is not everyones cup of tea, but perhaps as you say it can survive upon a commoditised lesser-cost safari basis. That leaves the free chase safaris to the wilder places in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Tanzania, Mozambique, etc. i will say that having a son in law and friends in the SA industry, it is far from all farm place-and-take. There are some massive areas within the fences and the habitat is conducive. It is as 'Africa' for plains game as it gets. I havent mentioned Namibia and Botswana because I know nothing about them.

I hope I’m wrong, too.

one other dimension that could improve Africa’s hunting industry is if prices in the USA continue to climb. Many people are buying bare-minimum 100 acre hunting properties in the USA so they can hunt deer and turkey at costs over $500,000. Premium western elk hunts are $8000-$20000.

if access to domestic hunting becomes this costly overall, some will go to Africa instead. Hunting is way up In the USA during Covid, will it stay that way next year? So far that hasn’t aided Africa so it remains to be seen.

 

[Tanks]

...

This is my thoughts on RSA. I don’t think Tanzania and Zim are the same because people are more inclined to pay their friends a living wage for the privilege of hunting with them. These more expensive safaris are more personal and relationship driven. ...

Actually, I got deals for both a Tanzania hunt offered this year, and Zim hunt next year. Just not advertised to strangers.

I’m not seeing “the deals” in reaction to the global economy this year. It seems business as usual. That’s strange to me. And all the operators costs are lower this year as they did no travel, marketing, etc. Logically that savings should be passed on in lower prices if they aren’t getting bookings?

They already did their marketing and travel for DSC, SCI etc. earlier this year before the lockdowns.

...The forecast for RSA demand looks bleak to me (I sure hope I’m wrong) but I don’t see pricing that is as low as 2014-2015 prices featured on AH today.

First, the guys in RSA do not know what the future holds. They are still in lockdown with no foreign travel.

Secondly, you do not know what the future will hold. You don't know how many will survive or the conditions on the ground next year.

There is no reason to offer deals on hunts in future years now with the market uncertainty. Especially if it is not prepaid in full (like some advertisements here). I as a client will not pay for a future deal in full with an outfitter I have not used before. Also, how much is a deal? A mere 10-15% off is not sufficient motivation to pay a $6K+ hunt in full 12+ months in advance.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Thats fair, I think operators asking for full pay way in advance are pushing their luck.
The unknown factor in all this is just how strong the local demand will be? I can only talk about Zim but I am surprised to see it is on the increase. Historically we have had to pay the same as the international hunters, no favours, but the prices are softening, even before covid, and now there are some very fair deals. I dare say there are a lot of new young hunters emerging too, its hip to hunt here!

 

[rookhawk]

Indeed. I cannot fathom pre-booking any hunts for 2021 or beyond anywhere at this time. The world has never been more uncertain.

-will the operator be around?

-did the government seize the funds?

-did the booking agent skip town?

-do airlines exist that allow gun travel?

-will covid restrictions be there?

-will trophy imports be allowed?

-will paperwork required to go be available by governments due to Covid or slowdowns? (Passport, customs, etc)


So my point is about current prices for 2020 before Jan 1, 2021. I can’t even wrap my mind around what the world will be in 3 months, much less 6 months from now.

 

[Timbo]

.and then there's the antis to deal with. This latest being reported:

https://www.sundaymail.co.zw/hunting-tool-to-protect-not-decimate-fauna/amp

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

You guys are sounding like you are bending under the strain. Positivity cures all.